Posted on by Zach Sturniolo

BRISTOL, Tenn. — After the checkered flag last weekend at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway, Christopher Bell had a rare outburst on his radio, expressing anger with a seventh-place finish while his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe finished first and second.

The heat-of-moment sizzle stemmed from a good place — a burning desire to win for a driver and No. 20 team that haven’t won since March.

MORE: Playoff standings | At-track photos: Bristol

“We just [expletive] ran seventh with the best car on the track!” Bell radioed at Gateway. “Every [expletive] week, it’s the same [expletive].”

Bell and crew chief Adam Stevens spoke after the proverbial smoke settled and head into Saturday night’s Round of 16 cutoff race (7:30 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs “in a really good spot,” Bell said Friday.

“I think it was definitely a buildup of frustration and not performing up to our standards, and not getting the results that I think that we should get,” Bell said. “Well — not even think; should. We should get better results, and we haven’t been doing that. It was frustration.”

Bell opened the year by winning the second, third and fourth races of 2025, immediately firing off as a team that looked destined for another trip to the Championship 4. But the visits to Victory Lane vanished — save for a win in the exhibition NASCAR All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro Speedway in May. The No. 20 team’s last top five in a points-paying oval race came at Kansas Speedway on May 11.

“We’re all on the same team,” Bell said. “I want to win. Adam wants to win. All of my my team, we all have the same common goal. So I don’t think anybody takes it personal because we all want the same thing. And if I win, it’s good for Adam. If Adam wins, it’s good for me. So I don’t know; it’s professional sports.”

In a Friday morning interview with NASCAR.com, Stevens echoed Bell’s sentiments verbatim. He explained the context of a 29th-place finish at Darlington Raceway in the postseason opener, which added to the nuanced lead-in to last week’s brief verbal unleashing.

“It’s been a few weeks since we’ve won, and it just weighs you down,” Stevens said. “You know, little extra pressure of the playoffs, a little extenuating circumstances with not having a great finish at Darlington, even though we were quick. And having to really be mindful of points coming into Bristol with the new tire — we just don’t know what kind of weekend it’s going to be here, right? So I don’t think he had a full understanding of that in the heat of the moment, and frustrations come out. It’s a frustrating sport.”

Adam Stevens and Christopher Bell look on during Bristol practice.
Alejandro Alvarez | NASCAR Digital Media

The lack of results to bolster the No. 20 team’s pace is a significant contributing factor to Bell’s disappointment. Hamlin has won a series-best five races this year, and Briscoe and Hamlin, respectively, won the opening playoff races at Darlington and Gateway. Bell’s confidence in his equipment hasn’t wavered, but the post-race rundowns haven’t supported the mid-race speed he has shown.

Since leading 105 laps in his March victory at Phoenix Raceway, Bell has only led a combined 113 laps in the last 24 races.

“I’m happy for my teammates, but that’s the barometer,” Bell said. “And if your teammates are out there winning races and leading laps, that shows that the cars are capable. We have the equipment. And I haven’t been leading laps and I haven’t been winning races, so there’s obviously something going on that’s keeping us from from doing that.”

What complicates that challenge is that Stevens can’t point to a singular theme holding the No. 20 team back from reaching its maximum potential.

“You just have to go track by track and week by week, and I don’t really think there’s a recurring thing there,” Stevens said. “To your point, we’ve had speed. We’ve suffered in execution here and there. And there’s lots of races and lots of tracks on the schedule, so you’ve got to take it all in stride. There’s 37 weekends if you count the All-Star Race, and you’re not going to win them all. And it comes and goes, just like anything else in professional sports.”

Stevens’ measured approach comes from 10 prior years of Cup Series crew-chiefing, a tenure that has resulted in two titles and 40 victories combined with Kyle Busch (2015-2020) and Bell (2021-present). Together, Bell and Stevens have made the Championship 4 in two of the last three seasons. To underestimate the confidence either has in one another is to ignore their past and recent successes. Per NASCAR Insights, the No. 20 Toyota ranks fifth in speed throughout the first 28 races of 2025 and places Bell as the fifth-best passer in the series.

“When we sit down and set our goals for the season, top of the sheet is to win the championship,” Stevens said. “And there’s nothing that’s happened at any point in time that’s taken that goal away. So it’s still right there in front of us. We have the cars. We have the speed. We have the driver and the team to do it, so eyes on the prize.”

Posted on by Cameron Richardson

BRISTOL, Tenn. — Despite entering the Cup Series Playoffs as just one of two drivers without a victory, the vibes still felt good for Alex Bowman entering the 10-race quest for the championship.

Bowman tallied top 10s in seven of the 11 races prior to the postseason and looked to be a sure-fire contender to make a run at least into the Round of 12. But that hasn’t been the case for the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports team and it’s primarily due to errors on pit road.

A disastrous 40-second pit stop at Darlington and another slow stop last Sunday at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway have set back Bowman entering Saturday’s first-round elimination race at Bristol Motor Speedway (7:30 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) and now faces a virtual must-win situation down 35 points to the cutline.

For this weekend, Hendrick made the call to swap all pit-crew members, minus the fueler, with the No. 77 Spire Motorsports team in hopes of solving the pit-stop puzzle.

RELATED: Cup playoff standings | Bristol photos

“I wasn’t super involved in it, had some conversations, but not super deeply involved in it,” Bowman said Friday at Bristol. “Those guys have been super fast at points throughout this year and they’re all really great athletes and do a good job. We’ve just had a bad two weeks at a time that we can’t have a bad two weeks.”

After a runner-up result at Richmond, it seemed Bowman was primed to begin the prep for a walkthrough into the playoffs. However, an early crash in the regular-season finale at Daytona had Bowman sweating until the checkered flag when Ryan Blaney outdueled a handful of underdogs to keep the cutline below Bowman and lock the Tucson, Arizona native into the title battle.

But the ick hasn’t been scrubbed since Daytona, and Bowman has qualified 25th or worse in each of the first two playoff races and finished 31st (Darlington) and 26th (Gateway).

“Certainly frustrating, right?” Bowman said. “We had a really good summer and the switch turned off for us, for sure. It’s kind of mortifying how bad we’ve been. It’s embarrassing. It’s not from a lack of effort, like everybody’s working so hard at HMS and our whole team is. We’ve just not put days together like we need to. So yeah, working hard to turn that around this weekend.”

The first item on the checklist toward willing the No. 48 team into the Round of 12 is a good qualifying lap.

Bowman put down a 125.757 mph lap in Friday’s qualifying session and will roll off 15th from the grid Saturday night.

Despite the inadequate circumstances coming into Bristol, Bowman isn’t approaching the race any different than he usually does.

“It’s really not that different than we normally would,” Bowman said. “We’re in such a tough spot, it’s almost less stressful, right? It’s not like we’re really close to the cutline and you’re trying to make sure you don’t make any mistakes. We got to make something happen. Mentally going through these last couple weeks has not been a fun time for me, but mentally it’s always kind of not been a fun time for me the last couple years. Just trying to run the best we can this weekend and be as prepared as I can be to go out there and do my job.”

With the pit crew swap, there’s no animosity or hurt feelings toward the members moving over to Carson Hocevar and the No. 77 team, and Bowman hopes that it will lead to good fortunes for both himself and Spire when the green flag waves Saturday evening.

“I’m definitely friends with all those guys and appreciative for all their hard work,” Bowman said. “It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if they had an amazing day on pit road on the 77 car and looked really good. I think for us, we needed a change, and just trying to have the best shot we can at winning this weekend.”

Posted on by Kobe Lambeth

Big Machine Racing and Nick Sanchez should not be overlooked entering the 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoffs, despite this being known as the year of dominance by one team, JR Motorsports.

Sanchez enters Friday’s playoff opener at Bristol Motor Speedway (7:30 p.m. ET, The CW, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) as the No. 7 seed, a single point above the cutline. The No. 48 Chevrolet driver punched his postseason ticket in late June when he visited Victory Lane for the first time in his Xfinity Series career at EchoPark Speedway (formerly Atlanta Motor Speedway).

Although the Big Machine operation has not found the same level of success as JRM with top seed Connor Zilisch’s remarkable year of nine wins at the forefront, Sanchez acknowledged the No. 88 team’s excellence but also feels his single-car team could be next in line after the JRM drivers.

RELATED: 2025 Xfinity Series Playoffs field set | Xfinity Series schedule

“What Connor is doing is insane, and rightfully so, he deserves the praise he’s getting,” Sanchez said during Tuesday’s Xfinity Series Playoffs Media Day. “But I feel like there’s a world where we could be the third fastest race car in the playoffs behind the 7 (Justin Allgaier) and the 88 (Zilisch). Like at Stage 1 after Gateway, I know it’s just one race. That’s where we were. And I feel like we’ve qualified very well. We’ve had raw pace, and that’s something that’s very hard to get.”

In the last seven races, Sanchez has started on the front row three times at Dover, Indianapolis and last Saturday night at Gateway. However, 37th-, 33rd- and 25th-place finishes in those races cannot happen in the postseason if the No. 48 team hopes to advance.

While the speed is clearly evident in qualifying, a possible deep playoff run may ultimately come down to the execution of the race. Sanchez believes Big Machine is showing more raw pace compared to technical alliance teammates, Richard Childress Racing drivers Austin Hill and Jesse Love, but knows his team must maximize its potential each week and control what it can control.

“I think it’s just having good, tough, sometimes tough and hard conversations with the team and identifying where we could be better, right?” Sanchez said. “Because like I said, the pace is there, but qualifying and just merely being fast is one thing, but executing throughout the whole race is another. And there’s areas where I could improve. There’s areas where the team can improve. I think we’re having those conversations now and trying to rectify those problems for the playoffs. And I think we definitely can.”

With Sanchez’s team debriefing the weaknesses that need some work before Friday night’s playoff opener in Thunder Valley, some areas of strength play right into the No. 48’s hands, such as road courses. The Round of 12 cutoff race is the Charlotte Roval, and Big Machine almost advanced to the next round of the playoffs last year with its then-driver Parker Kligerman.

Only mere moments before Kligerman took the white flag while leading the race, the caution came out. It forced NASCAR Overtime, where Sam Mayer out-dueled Kligerman and eliminated Big Machine from the postseason.

Sanchez has been on a roll on road courses, riding a three-race streak of top fives at Chicago, Sonoma and Portland. Despite the good runs turning left and right recently, the 24-year-old Miami native does not necessarily think he will be in a must-win situation. If the team can fully execute for the next three Round of 12 playoff races, the rest will take care of itself and maybe set the stage for a deep playoff run.

“Outside of the top two in points, everyone has one win,” Sanchez said. “I know Austin has three, but he lost all his points. So in that regard, we’re not really overcoming a huge deficit in the playoff reset. You know, I’m plus one, I think, seventh seed, and I’m 10 points out of third seed. So everyone’s really close, right? You could change, you could swing it in the stage. So in that regard, I don’t feel like there’s many must-wins ahead of me.”

MORE: Xfinity Series standings

If Sanchez reaches the Round of 8, Talladega stands out as a prime chance to punch his ticket to the Championship 4, thanks to his earlier win this season on a drafting track in Georgia. The Round of 8 cutoff race is Martinsville, the site of Sanchez’s seventh-place finish in 2022 when he was running a part-time schedule with Big Machine.

With the wild ending to the Martinsville spring race in late March, the potential for chaos in the fall edition might be a case of “survive and advance” for Sanchez, assuming he lives up to his lofty postseason expectations for Big Machine to meet the big moment.

“I need to be top three or top five in every stage of the playoffs and finish there,” Sanchez said. “If I do that, I think it’s good enough to get to Phoenix. Obviously, the win and you’re in changes things a little differently, but I feel like everyone’s really close in points. So you just really got to beat your competitors. And I know the 88 (Zilisch) and the 7 (Allgaier) are in a different points situation than everyone else. So I think the rest of the spots are pretty wide open.”

Posted on by Nate Ryan

“The Toyota Way,” a famous blueprint for the workplace culture of the world’s largest automaker, is a collection of core values rooted in a Japanese philosophy known as “Kaizen.”

It essentially means “continuous improvement” through small and persistent upgrades that are derived from constant observations and learnings about how to make performance gains.

“Every improvement, regardless of size, is valuable,” according to “The Toyota Way” listed on the company’s website. “Encouraging both incremental and breakthrough innovative thinking, we seek to evolve with Kaizen, never accepting the status quo.”

It’s a concept that resonates when looking at Toyota’s surge to open the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.

RELATED: Playoff standings | Weekend schedule

Before sweeping the top two spots at Darlington and Gateway and leading 515 of the first 607 laps in the 10-race title run, there were few signs that Camrys would flaunt such dominance. Before the playoff opener, Toyota had won four of the past 18 races.

But in the background, the dedication to progress clearly continued — slowly but surely.

“We have made some minor improvements to the performance over the course of the last six or eight weeks,” Toyota Racing Development president Tyler Gibbs said after Denny Hamlin’s win at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway.

That was a rather understated evaluation of results that are setting off alarm bells for the competition. Defending Cup Series champion Joey Logano notably conceded after Gateway that Toyota “has got the smoke” because he was unable to outrace Hamlin. Camrys took five of the top eight positions at Gateway after claiming six of the top seven spots at Darlington.

“They’re ridiculously fast,” Logano said of the Toyotas. “They’ve got a lot of grip, and they’ve got a lot of horsepower. We’ve got a lot of work to do to catch up. We’ve got to be absolutely perfect in every category to contend, and we need them to make mistakes, which they do. We have the potential to do it; it’s just going to be really challenging.”

Just the odds seem to favor a Toyota driver winning the championship this season for the Cup Series’ most overdue manufacturer. It’s been six years and a combined five championships for Chevrolet and Ford since Kyle Busch clinched the 2019 title with a victory at Homestead-Miami Speedway — the third Toyota championship in five years at the 1.5-mile track.

The Championship 4 race shifted to Phoenix Raceway in 2020, and the manufacturer has barely been a factor since. A Toyota title contender had led at the 1-mile oval in only one of the past five season finales — Martin Truex Jr. in 2021. Hamlin (2020-21) and Christopher Bell (2022-23) both went to Phoenix with championship aspirations and were shut out of a turn at the front.

As a 1.25-mile track whose banking and shape have been compared with Phoenix, Gateway could be viewed as an encouraging sign for a turnaround in Toyota’s title prospects — though the results were downplayed by the head of its NASCAR program.

“It’s race by race, week to week,” Gibbs said. “Anything can happen. We’re just going to focus one race at a time. I know that’s cliché. It doesn’t really do us any good to look that far down the road. We’ll prepare for this week. Look at the week after as well, because it takes so much work to get ready for these races. … We’re just, again, going to keep our heads down and keep preparing the way we have.”

Humility. It’s another principle that undergirds the Toyota worldview.

“We welcome competition without ego. It pushes us to improve.”

That’s straight from “The Toyota Way” — and it might be the path to a 2025 championship.

Posted on by Cameron Richardson

BRISTOL, Tenn. — Front Row Motorsports has made its mark in “Thunder Valley” recently as the organization has won the last three Craftsman Truck Series races at the Tennessee short track.

Layne Riggs scored his second Bristol Motor Speedway victory in the last three events to secure his spot in the Round of 8, but the track swung back at Chandler Smith under the lights Thursday evening as the No. 38 Ford suffered an electrical issue during Stage 1.

The issue pinned Smith multiple laps down, and with a clean night from the field limiting the number of cautions, the Georgia native gained no ground after 250 laps, finishing 14 laps off the pace in 30th.

RELATED: Race results | At-track photos

“I’m not sure what the issue was honestly,” Smith said after the race. “Sounds like it was a sensor that just slowly unplugged itself, which is mind-boggling to me that we’re racing at this prestige of a level and can just have something just start wiggling its way out and completely ruin your day.”

Smith started the second Truck playoff race of 2025 inside the top 10 and found himself working his way toward the lead after teammate Riggs spun on the opening lap.

But as he closed inside the top five, Smith said his truck completely shut off.

“After that [Lap 1] caution, after probably about eight laps, I started running the top, and I was passing guys up top, got up to third or fourth and as I was passing somebody, it just cut out,” Smith said. “Just stopped, like wow. Just dead. I was like ‘maybe it’s fuel-pressure related’ because I was running the top and went to the bottom, kind of cleaned itself up, but with lapped traffic and stuff, forced me back to the top. Started doing it more and more, and then finally, it just was done.”

The opening round of the postseason has been nothing short of a nightmare for Smith and the No. 38 crew.

Smith entered the seven-race playoffs as the third seed with a 16-point buffer to the cutline. However, it took just 14 laps two weeks ago at Darlington Raceway for the advantage to disappear as the No. 38 driver slammed the wall, bringing a swift end to his day at the “Lady in Black.”

He entered Bristol just two points below the cutline, but a second consecutive minimum points day for Smith pins him 24 points below the cutline with an elimination race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway looming next Saturday (Noon ET, FS1, NASCAR Radio Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) as the Truck Series returns to the “Magic Mile” for the first time since 2017.

“Gut-wrenching,” Smith lamented. “We had the fastest truck here tonight. Really, really happy that Layne won, though. That’s three in a row here for FRM. Now we’re in a must-win situation, I’m pretty sure, going to New Hampshire. It honestly comes all the way back to making a bonehead move at Darlington that put us in this position. Who knows where we would be points-wise depending on how Darlington went and not stuffing it in the fence?

“But nevertheless, we’re gonna go and do what we were gonna do tonight, and that’s kick their ass.”

Posted on by Reid Spencer

BRISTOL, Tenn. — Layne Riggs recovered from a first-lap spin at Bristol Motor Speedway and rallied to win Thursday night’s UNOH 250 Presented by Ohio Logistics, the second race in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Playoffs.

Grabbing the lead after a restart on Lap 142 of 250, Riggs held off a determined charge by two-time Truck Series champion Ben Rhodes to win his third race of the 2025 season, second at Bristol and fifth of his career.

“You don’t get two mulligans in the playoffs, and I got two,” said Riggs, who salvaged a 17th-place finish after slamming the outside wall in the first playoff race Aug. 30 at Darlington. “The first lap of the race to spin out, it’s a blow to your confidence, for sure, but I’ve got faith in this team, and I’ve got faith in everybody here …”

RELATED: Race results | At-track photos: Bristol

With the victory, Riggs earned a berth in the Round of 8 of the playoffs and won’t have to worry about the Sept. 20 Round of 10 elimination race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

“I think this shows that we’re right there, we’re in contention, we can do it,” said Riggs, who ran the final 109 green-flag laps with scuffed qualifying tires on his No. 34 Ford, having used a set of stickers after the spin on Lap 1. “That’s three in a row at Bristol for Front Row Motorsports. It’s a big testament to all these guys. We’ve got a really good package here.

“Man, I’m excited for New Hampshire. I’ve never even been there and I already love that race track.”

Riggs’ victory ended a three-race winning streak for series leader Corey Heim and kept the driver of the No. 11 Tricon Garage Toyota from equaling Greg Biffle’s series record of nine wins in a single season.

Heim won Stage 2 but lost three spots on pit road under caution during the break and lined up third for the Lap 142 restart behind Cole Butcher, who stayed out on old tires. Butcher backed up the bottom lane on the restart and Heim fell to seventh in the running order.

All the winner of the opening playoff race could do was claw his way back to a distant third at the finish.

“It was a debatable choose on that last restart, lining up behind the truck that stayed out — I think it was the 62 (Butcher),” said Heim, who led a race-high 122 laps to Riggs’ 110. “He spun the tires really bad and we fell back to seventh or eighth, and it was just a super track-position-dependent race.

“I thought our truck was good. I think the best team won for sure. Those guys were lights out.”

Playoff drivers Ty Majeski and Daniel Hemric ran fourth and fifth, respectively, and took comfortable points positions into the elimination race at New Hampshire.

SHOP: Layne Riggs gear

Riggs’ teammate, Chandler Smith, winner of the spring race at Bristol, wasn’t as fortunate. Smith fell off the pace with what he described as a power steering issue on Lap 32 and lost 12 laps on pit road during repairs, ultimately finishing 14 laps off the pace.

Smith completed the night 10th in the standings, 24 points below the elimination line for the next round.

Similarly, pole winner Jake Garcia, who captured the first stage win of his career in Stage 1, lost power on Lap 84, took his No.13 ThorSport Racing Ford to the garage for repairs and finished 33rd — three spots behind Smith and 31 laps down.

Garcia is 14 points below the cutline entering the elimination race.

Non-playoff drivers Tanner Gray, Connor Mosack, Andrés Pérez de Lara, Corey LaJoie and Matt Crafton completed the top 10.

The Truck Series returns to action next Saturday, Sept. 20, for the Round of 10 elimination race at New Hampshire (Noon ET, FS1, NRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

NOTE: Post-race inspection in the Craftsman Truck Series garage concluded without issue, confirming Riggs as the winner.
Posted on by Neil Paine

The biggest story of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs so far? It might be the impressive speed of Toyotas at Darlington and Gateway. Not only have a pair of Joe Gibbs Racing Camrys swept the first two races — with wins from Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin — but Toyota drivers have also dominated the Racing-Reference pages for both events. Despite making up just five of 16 cars in the playoff field, Toyota owns six of 10 possible top fives and 12 of 20 possible top 10s, including four top fives and eight top 10s from playoff drivers.

Chart showing Toyota's finishes in the first two playoff races compared with Chevrolet and Ford.

Toyota’s five championship-eligible entries (Hamlin, Briscoe, Christopher Bell, Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick) collectively have an average finish of 7.9, much better than their playoff counterparts from Ford (19.0) and Chevy (19.5). As part of that, Toyota carries an impressive combined average Adjusted Points+ index of 230 (or 130% better than Cup average) and a Driver Rating of 108.6. Among OEMs with at least five playoff entries in a year since Driver Rating data became available in 2005, both numbers rank within the top four we’ve seen through the first two races of any postseason.

Chart showing how Toyota's start to the playoffs ranks against OEM starts in the playoffs all-time.

That gives the Toyotas a case for the most dominant start to a postseason since at least 2005 — definitively trailing only Chevrolet in 2009. That year, Hendrick Motorsports drivers Mark Martin and Jimmie Johnson swept the opening pair of races, part of Chevy’s own set of six total top fives and 10 top 10s from playoff drivers at the start of the playoffs — beginning what they would eventually run up to five consecutive Chevy wins to begin the playoffs, with Johnson, Martin and Jeff Gordon finishing 1-2-3 in the final standings in their Impalas for good measure.

(In 2004, the debut season of the Chase For the Cup, no OEM sent more than four entries to what was then a 10-driver field anyway, with Ford and Dodge splitting the first two races, so it’s fair to call Chevy’s 2009 showing the greatest start in playoff history either way.)

How much does a red-hot start by a manufacturer predict the rest of the playoffs, though?

The bad news for Toyota is that it doesn’t tend to carry over too much from here. Again looking at OEMs with at least five playoff entries going back to 2005, we find that their average finish in the first two races of the playoffs explains only 5% of how their playoff drivers finish over the rest of the playoffs. The explanatory power is higher for Adjusted Points+ (21%) and Driver Rating (39%), but the point remains that no matter how off-the-charts a manufacturer’s early results are, it doesn’t guarantee dominance all playoffs long.

The good news, however, is that the Toyota drivers aren’t necessarily building their case off of just the past few races alone. We detailed before the playoffs how Briscoe had sneakily been the best driver in Cup for most of the summer, and Hamlin has shown zero signs of slowing down this year despite being the series’ oldest full-time driver at age 44. Wallace is having what might be the best season of his career, while Bell and Reddick are perennial threats to make the Championship 4. (One of the two has made it that far in each of the past three seasons.)

Because of all this, our Cup Series playoff forecast model — which uses projected Driver Ratings by track type to simulate the playoffs 10,000 times — gives some Toyota driver or another (whether for JGR or 23XI) a 51% chance to win the 2025 Cup Series title, with Hamlin checking in as the current favorite. Despite claiming only 31% of the entries in the playoff field, Toyota drivers are significantly more likely than that to be represented at each phase of the playoffs:

Chart showing how far Toyota drivers are expected to advance in these playoffs compared to other manufacturers.

Two races in, things are going just about as well as could be hoped for by a manufacturer who hasn’t won a title in five years (granted, after previously winning two in three seasons from 2017-19 with Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch). In the past, Toyota’s arc in many seasons has followed Hamlin’s — always strongly competitive, but never quite good enough to capture a championship. This year is shaping up to be different, though. Whether it means Hamlin finally gets his long-awaited title, or one of their other contenders earns the crown instead, the numbers say a breakthrough may be at hand for Toyota in these playoffs — and these opening statements might end up being a clear signal of what’s still to come.

Posted on by Alex Cadavid

Editor’s note: Projection updated after Friday’s practice and qualifying sessions.

With two races down in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, the sun will set on four title hopefuls this Saturday night at the “Last Great Colosseum” and end their playoff run early (7:30  ET, USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).

Racing Insights has a wealth of data to help gauge who might advance in the postseason and who might be eliminated.

RELATED: Bristol weekend schedule | Cup Series Playoffs standings

For starters, it doesn’t take much to understand that the Toyotas of Joe Gibbs Racing have come to play in the first two Round of 16 races. With Chase Briscoe dominating the Southern 500 opener and Denny Hamlin flexing late at Gateway, there’s good reason to think the organization could produce a clean sweep of the first round and lock all three of its drivers into the Round of 12 via a win.

That third driver would be Christopher Bell, who opened the season on a red-hot streak of three consecutive victories after crashing out of the Daytona 500. Bell was hot for a different reason last weekend, admittedly frustrated that the No. 20 team hadn’t been able to replicate the same success Briscoe and Hamlin have been thriving with over the past few months. But can Bell turn that fire around into a statement win at “Thunder Valley?”

Going to Bristol, it’s no secret that Hamlin and Kyle Larson are the favorites, with both drivers combining to win six of the last nine races here. However, while Bell has yet to dominate a race at the Tennessee track to the level of Hamlin or Larson, his career numbers at the “World’s Fastest Half-Mile” point out that he might erupt for a convincing triumph. He’s finished in the top 10 in each of his last five starts and has led a total of 359 laps over that span. Plus, Bell ranks third in speed, long-run speed and passing at Bristol in the Next Gen car, behind Larson and Hamlin in each of those categories, according to NASCAR Insights. Finally, Bell leads all drivers in laps run in the top 10 at Bristol since 2022, proven by the fact he’s scored points every stage here over the last six races.

Another case for why C-Bell could be in Victory Lane on Saturday night is that two of his playoff wins have come in elimination races. Granted, he was in a “must-win scenario” for both of those events (Roval and Martinsville in 2022), and he only needs 36 points to advance this weekend. However, the emotion he showed last weekend is a telling sign that the No. 20 driver is hungry to return to Victory Lane.

FANTASY: Set your lineup | Make a 36 for 36 pick

OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

KYLE LARSON: Larson has put up generational numbers in the last two races here, leading just over 87% of the last 1,000 laps run at Bristol, which is only comparable to when Bobby Allison led 903 laps over a two-race span in 1972. He’s eyeing to become the first driver to win three straight Bristol races since Kurt Busch in 2004.

JOEY LOGANO: The last time Logano entered the Bristol Night Race as the defending champ, he was eliminated from the playoffs. With no lead-lap finishes in the last five races here, there’s some cause for concern.

ROSS CHASTAIN: With 19 points to the good, Chastain is another driver who will be sweating out the 500-lapper to advance. However, since 2022, he ranks eighth in long-run speed, defense and restarts at Bristol and could easily be in the mix.

AUSTIN DILLON: Now here’s a driver that can make some noise on the bubble, as Dillon finished 10th here in the spring. Through 20 career starts at Bristol, Dillon has only two DNFs, so he could capitalize on chaos if it strikes.

ALEX BOWMAN: Bowman scored the previous two poles at the high-banked short track and was in the top 10 in both speed and long-run speed at Bristol in the Next Gen era, according to NASCAR Insights. He will need to deliver a clutch performance and win, sitting 35 points below the elimination line.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR BASS PRO SHOPS NIGHT RACE

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.

FinishCar No.Driver
111Denny Hamlin
25Kyle Larson
320Christopher Bell
412Ryan Blaney
59Chase Elliott
654Ty Gibbs
724William Byron
819Chase Briscoe
923Bubba Wallace
1017Chris Buescher
1148Alex Bowman
121Ross Chastain
1345Tyler Reddick
146Brad Keselowski
1560Ryan Preece
1677Carson Hocevar
1716AJ Allmendinger
182Austin Cindric
1971Michael McDowell
2022Joey Logano
218Kyle Busch
2221Josh Berry
237Justin Haley
2442John H Nemechek
253Austin Dillon
2643Erik Jones
274Noah Gragson
2847Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
2999Daniel Suárez
3041Cole Custer
3138Zane Smith
3235Riley Herbst
3334Todd Gilliland
3410Ty Dillon
3588Shane van Gisbergen
3667Corey Heim
3751Cody Ware
3833Austin Hill
3966Chad Finchum
Posted on by Pat DeCola

Here’s what’s happening in NASCAR with the Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway in the rearview and Saturday’s Bristol Night Race up next (7:30 p.m. ET, USA Network, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).

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1. Here comes Hendrick — Larson to lead charge back against Toyota

The start of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs has been all Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing so far, but that may be about to change in this weekend’s Round of 16 cutoff race at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Toyota drivers enter this weekend’s Round of 16 cutoff race as the unquestioned frontrunners of the playoffs thus far, with Joe Gibbs Racing taking the air out of the room as Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin suffocated the field in the opening two races, and 23XI’s duo heads into Saturday with plenty of cushion to feel safe.

At the same time, Kyle Larson enters Bristol Motor Speedway as the undisputed king of the concrete colosseum in the Next Gen era, with numbers that are truly extraordinary. The 2021 champ owns three Bristol wins in his last seven starts, including two in a row with this race last year and again earlier this season. More impressive still, Larson led 873 laps in those two — nearly 90% of all possible laps — a feat that places him among the most dominant short-track performers in NASCAR history.

The 1,762 laps Larson has led at Bristol represent his highest total at any track by a margin of 712, and the 462 laps led in the most recent night race there marked the most ever by a Hendrick Motorsports driver in a single Cup race, cementing his status as the organization’s short-track ace. Though his summer didn’t quite go as planned, if it was all going to turn around for the California native on his quest for title No. 2, this is the spot.

RELATED: Bristol entry list | Full weekend schedule

As dominant as Toyota has looked through two races, it’s hard not to get the sense that No. 5 is about to wash all that away and position himself as the potential title favorite as the Round of 12 takes shape with another strong-arming of the field under the lights.

“Yeah, I mean, it would be great to have a day like the last two times there where we lead a bunch of laps and win the race,” Larson reflected after Gateway. “You can never expect that. Everybody is always getting better. We have to try to go up there and execute like we did … qualify up front. You just hope the race will play out better in our favor. We can just build on it.”

Also worth noting — Larson’s brilliance reflects a broader Hendrick resurgence at Bristol, as other powerhouse organizations like Team Penske have struggled to make it happen there in the past decade. Chase Elliott has registered top-10 finishes in more than half of his Bristol starts (nine of 16) and has led 444 laps of his own. Alex Bowman, desperately in need of the best possible finish he can muster this weekend, earned pole positions for each of the last two Bristol races, while William Byron has yet to lead a lap there but owns four top 10s in the last six.

Apart from any self-induced mishaps, Toyota does remain Hendrick’s biggest hurdle this weekend. The manufacturer has orchestrated a masterclass in postseason racing thus far, winning both races and leading 515 of 607 laps run, securing a landmark 200th victory over the weekend as Hamlin picked up his series-best fifth 2025 win. Briscoe’s display of dominance at Darlington also showcased Toyota’s depth beyond established veterans after Kyle Busch moved on a few years ago and Martin Truex Jr. retired after last year, as he and Bubba Wallace, who has a healthy cushion entering Bristol, look like realistic Championship 4 contenders for the first time in their careers.

Defending champion Joey Logano acknowledged the gap between manufacturers so far candidly after Gateway.

“They’re ridiculously fast. They’ve got a lot of grip, and they’ve got a lot of horsepower. We’ve got a lot of work to do to catch up.”

Bristol’s concrete surface and track treatment, courtesy of NASCAR — not to mention a new right-side tire — provide consistent grip and racing characteristics that reward both raw speed and strategic positioning. This could lead to Toyota further maximizing exactly what Logano mentioned, or it could open the door for Larson and others to catch up and make it look like anybody’s ballgame again.

If Toyota is able to maintain its pace at Bristol, the championship is clearly in its grasp. And tightening.

Denny Hamlin, driver of the #11 Express Oil Change Toyota, Kyle Larson, driver of the #5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet, Christopher Bell, driver of the #20 DEWALT Toyota, and Ty Gibbs, driver of the #54 SiriusXM Toyota, race during the NASCAR Cup Series Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway on March 17, 2024 in Bristol, Tennessee.
Meg Oliphant | Getty Images

2. Is a major surprise elimination coming at Bristol?

Reigning champion Joey Logano’s title defense has not been a particularly strong one, and No. 22 faces the very realistic threat of elimination Saturday night at Bristol. Will he, or other big players facing the cut, rise to the occasion at “The Last Great Colosseum?”

As laid out above, there’s going to be plenty of warranted focus on Larson and Toyota (and in particular Hamlin) this weekend.

There is, however, one potential majorly dramatic subplot to focus on Saturday night — the defending champion may not make it out of the first round.

Joey Logano’s startling struggles this year are well past the point of “hey, they’ll get it together in time for the playoffs.” Here we are on the verge of the first cutoff race inside the playoffs, and No. 22 has just eight top 10s on the year, hasn’t felt close to winning a race since the spring, and now faces elimination, needing to maintain a scant 21-point cushion to the bubble at a mediocre-at-best track for him.

Sure, he’s a two-time Bristol winner, but both of those came a decade ago or more, and Logano arrives averaging a 27th-place finish in five Next Gen races, placing 22nd or worse each time. That skid contrasts sharply with his history of clutch performances and underscores Team Penske’s challenges adapting to Bristol with this car. Short of everything going perfectly, Logano faces the real threat of elimination. One ill-timed pit miscue or mechanical fault could end his championship bid, transforming what should have been another strong run (albeit in an odd year) into one of this season’s biggest upsets.

By contrast, Christopher Bell, also far off his early-season pace to the point the mild-mannered Oklahoman is calling out his team after seventh-place finishes, epitomizes reliability at Bristol and should be a lock to advance and continue his trek toward title No. 1. He has never finished outside the top 10 at this track in the Next Gen and ranks third among active drivers in laps led at the half-mile oval. Bell’s consistent stage results, with a top 10 in every stage over the last six races, reflect the precision that Bristol demands and few can master.

Below the cutline, however, desperation intensifies.

Alex Bowman, who has as many Bristol finishes over the past eight races inside the top 10 as finishes outside the top 30, sits 35 points short after pit-road penalties and mechanical failures have hampered his campaign. He needs to have the race of his life, as only a victory or a flawless points day will salvage his season.

Shane van Gisbergen, 15 points shy, confronts his first genuine short-track challenge; his road-course prowess offers little guidance on Bristol’s high banks, and his lone start here ended in a 38th-place DNF. Add the pressure of playoff elimination and we’ll get to really test SVG’s mettle this weekend.

Josh Berry, 45 points adrift, represents the ultimate underdog of the race, a long shot among long shots. Accidents in both playoff races have painted him into a corner, yet Wood Brothers Racing’s history of strong short-track showings provides a sliver of hope if he can avoid early wrecks.

Should Logano stumble, any one of these bubble drivers could vault into the Round of 12 without taking the checkered flag. Don’t be quick to rule out a pop-off win from Ross Chastain or Austin Dillon — the most recent short-track winner — if the in-race points situation gets jumbled and some of the sport’s most aggressive drivers need to muscle up at the end.

Bristol is an equalizer to a degree, and this playoff field for the Round of 12 is anything but solidified. Chris Buescher’s 2022 breakthrough to end a 223-race winless streak, for example, illustrates how precise timing and opportunism can sometimes override raw speed at one of the sport’s most unique venues.

The only question is who wants it the most?

BRISTOL, TENNESSEE - SEPTEMBER 20: Joey Logano, driver of the #22 Shell Pennzoil Ford, enters his car during qualifying for the NASCAR Cup Series Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 20, 2024 in Bristol, Tennessee.
Jonathan Bachman | Getty Images

3. Kyle Petty: Is Ryan Blaney too nice to drive a race car?

Kyle Petty breaks down whether Ryan Blaney is ‘too nice’ after his recent run-in with Kyle Larson at World Wide Technology Raceway.

4. Will a first-time short-track winner advance at Bristol?

Five of the six lowest-ranked drivers remaining in the playoffs have never won at a short track before, and none of them have won at Bristol, in particular. Will one of them change that on Saturday night? (Credit: Racing Insights)

DriverWinsLast
Kyle Busch16Bristol 4/19
Denny Hamlin15Martinsville 3/25
Brad Keselowski7Richmond 9/20
Kyle Larson6Bristol 4/25
Joey Logano5Martinsville 10/18
Ryan Blaney3Martinsville 11/24
William Byron3Iowa 8/25
Alex Bowman2Martinsville 10/21
Chris Buescher2Richmond 7/23
Austin Dillon2Richmond 9/25
Chase Elliott1Martinsville 11/20
Christopher Bell1Martinsville 10/22

5. Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage

Paint Scheme Preview: 2025 Bristol Motor Speedway playoff weekend

Power Rankings: Bubba Wallace enters Championship 4 conversation after hot start

Gateway victory primes Hamlin for personal milestone of 60th Cup win

Kyle Petty: Denny Hamlin ‘may be the last driver that hits 60’ wins

Some smooth, others bumpy: Gateway nets mixed results for Hendrick Motorsports

Radioactive: Hear what Blaney said after getting spun out

‘Their heart goes to a different place’: Who’s rising in the playoffs

Playoff Pulse: Title contenders rise, fall through Gateway melee

Goodyear to debut new, softer right-side tires for Bristol Night Race

NASCAR official on Trackhouse post-race actions: ‘We’ll make it pretty clear to them moving forward’

Christopher Bell unsatisfied with Gateway top 10: ‘We are underperforming’

Larson tangles with Blaney at Gateway: ‘He should be upset’

Denny Hamlin’s late surge sews up fifth win of season, Round of 12 playoff spot

BRISTOL, TENNESSEE - SEPTEMBER 21: A general view of the grid prior to the NASCAR Cup Series Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 21, 2024 in Bristol, Tennessee.
Jonathan Bachman | Getty Images
Posted on by Reid Spencer

For a driver who finished 30th in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series playoff opener at Darlington Raceway and currently occupies next-to-last place in the standings, Chandler Smith has a surprisingly sanguine outlook entering Thursday night’s UNOH 250 Presented by Ohio Logistics at Bristol Motor Speedway (8 p.m. ET, FS1, NASCAR Radio Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

“Honestly, I’m not too worried about it,” said Smith, who crashed out of the Darlington race after 14 laps and is two points below the current elimination line for the Round of 8. “ … Going back to Bristol, we were really strong there earlier this year,” said Smith. “Then New Hampshire as well, so I’m not really worried about the point situation.”

In fact, Smith won the spring race at “Thunder Valley” from the third starting position. Both he and Front Row Motorsports teammate Layne Riggs have had consistently fast Fords of late.

RELATED: Bristol schedule | Truck Series playoff standings

“We’ve still got two races left going back to Bristol, where we won earlier this year and then New Hampshire for the last race of this round, where I’ve been really strong in the past as well,” Smith said.

“I’m not really discouraged or anything about that. I think our trucks here recently have been really good. Everybody at Front Row Motorsports has been giving me a truck capable of going out there and winning.”

The Sept. 20 EJP 175 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway (Noon ET, FS1, NASCAR Radio Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) will trim the playoff field from 10 drivers to eight. Smith trails eighth-place Jake Garcia by two points and seventh-place Rajah Caruth by four. Kaden Honeycutt is 10th in the standings, seven points below the elimination line.

Already guaranteed a spot in the Round of 8, eight-race winner Corey Heim goes for his fourth straight Truck Series victory on Friday. Heim has taken the checkered flag in four of the last five races, three times from the pole position.