Strange as it may seem in retrospect, Ned Jarrett wasn’t the outright pre-race favorite when the odds were drawn for the Southern 500 in 1965. Other flat-footed drivers were considered harder chargers, and the memories of Jarrett’s most recent go in the Labor Day classic may have remained fresh enough to make him a slight dark horse.

In the previous year’s 500-miler at rugged Darlington Raceway, Jarrett opened the endurance race with a rare Lap 1, Turn 1 spinout. Trying to gather up his No. 11 Bondy Long-owned Ford, he lost control again — all before one circuit was complete.

“Fortunately, I was able to go on and I managed to finish in fourth place,” Jarrett told the Florence Morning News in 1999, “but I was thinking what 500 miles is going to be like if I can’t even finish one lap.”

The next year, Jarrett sought out some divine help. The night before the 500, he served as a guest speaker for the Darlington Methodist Youth Fellowship group. As a former NASCAR Cup Series champion and a certified star, the fee for the eloquent Jarrett’s public-speaking appearances was increasing, but he never charged church or civic groups for his time. The favor the youth group returned was all the payment he needed.

Ned Jarrett crosses under the checkered flag to win the 1965 Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway by a record 19-plus miles (14 laps). Behind him is the runner-up No. 86 driven by Buddy Baker in relief of his father, Buck.
NASCAR Research & Archives Center | Getty Images

“They said they would pray for me,” Jarrett told reporters. “Well, somebody did, including myself.”

The next day, Jarrett established one of stock-car racing’s untouchable performance achievements, surviving a contest of attrition to win the Southern 500 by a whopping 14 laps. Jarrett’s staggering 19.25-mile margin of victory still stands as a Cup Series record, one that turns 60 years old next week and remains a historic highlight as Darlington celebrates its 75th anniversary season.

RELATED: Largest Cup Series margins of victory | Weekend schedule: Darlington

The story of the 1965 Southern 500 is one of chaos and tragedy, attrition and perseverance and ultimately the tale of a true, unassailable record, set at one of NASCAR’s most treacherous venues. A Cup Series race’s margin of victory hasn’t been measured in laps since Geoff Bodine finished on a lap of his own in 1994 at North Wilkesboro Speedway. In this era of greater competitive parity, it’s a mark that’s highly unlikely ever to be repeated.

“It’s a Southern 500 win by 14 laps. You know, we talk about records are made to be broken,” said Dale Jarrett, Ned’s Hall of Famer son and a three-time Darlington winner in his own right. “Well, I think that’s one that’s going to withstand the test of time.”

* * *

Dale Jarrett was just a couple of months shy of turning 9 years old in the summer of 1965 when the stock-car racing schedule turned to Darlington, but his memories of that weekend remain vivid.

He remembers the high school band from his adopted hometown playing, marching in formation in their tablecloth-checked shirts and white shorts. Actors from the cast of the hit TV show “Gunsmoke” waved from the parade around Darlington’s town square. ABC’s “Wide World of Sports” provided on-the-spot coverage. The fanfare matched the magnitude.

“It was just amazing to be there,” Dale Jarrett says. “I mean, there were so many things that lined up. We obviously lived in Camden, South Carolina, where Bondy Long had the race team. We had moved from North Carolina down to there, and so Darlington was like our home track.”

Though he was in the midst of another title-caliber season, Ned Jarrett received less pre-race attention than some of the hotshots — Junior Johnson, Fred Lorenzen and Marvin Panch among them — who outpaced his No. 11 Ford in qualifying. Even with Richard Petty, David Pearson and a host of Chrysler teams missing from the field after competition officials banned the Hemi V-8 engine in 1965, the early laurels went elsewhere.

Though Jarrett had won 11 of the 44 races to that point of the season on smaller ovals, the motoring press considered him overdue for a prestigious payday. A 10th-place starting position seemed like it might prolong his wait. Darlington’s tenacity and the unreliable nature of 1960s equipment toiling for a 500-mile test in searing heat tilted the balance in favor of Jarrett’s steady approach.

Johnson — one of those popular favorites — started from the pole position, figuring to set the early pace while fighting off a flu virus that had laid him low earlier in the weekend. His goal lasted just half a lap, when his No. 26 Ford misfired with ignition trouble, handing the lead to the fair-haired Lorenzen.

Tragedy unfolded with just two laps complete. Buren Skeen — a competitive Bowman Gray Stadium regular from Denton, North Carolina, making his first Darlington start — was critically injured when his No. 23 Ford was speared in the driver’s door by Reb Wickersham’s No. 03 entry after a Turn 1 spin. Skeen perished a week later in a Florence hospital.

Another crash a third of the way in produced another fright, but also relief that both contenders escaped unscathed. Cale Yarborough made an inside move on Sam McQuagg in their contest for the lead on Lap 119, but their cars became entangled and slid up against the retaining wall through the first turn. Yarborough’s Banjo Matthews-prepared car teetered after the impact, vaulting over the guard rail and tumbling over the banking. Both drivers were done for the day, but uninjured.

Fifteen drivers were already out of the race by then, including Marvin Panch’s Wood Brothers No. 21 Ford, which succumbed to engine woes and a spin in its own fluids. That left the fray up front to Lorenzen in his Holman-Moody No. 28 Ford and the speedy Darel Dieringer, who ended up leading the most laps in Bud Moore’s No. 15 Mercury.

MORE: History of the Darlington Stripe | The ‘stripe’ through the years

Jarrett, meanwhile, kept on the fringes of the top five, moving up when others made pit stops. At one point, he was content to let Dieringer by while keeping his steady pace and staying mindful of his big-picture points battle with Dick Hutcherson for the standings lead.

Trouble found Lorenzen and Dieringer in short order as the laps ticked down, with Jarrett running third and set to capitalize. Engine failure halted Lorenzen’s charge, and Dieringer’s seemingly clear path to victory closed when his car’s differential gave way, forcing him to make multiple stops before eventually parking 19 laps short of the finish. He had a four-lap lead at the time.

“This is the one I really wanted,” a downtrodden Lorenzen told ABC’s Chris Economaki after his exit. Of all the crown-jewel wins Lorenzen amassed, the Southern 500 remained a glaring void until his career’s end. Dieringer returned the next year to give Hall of Famer Bud Moore his only Southern 500 triumph.

Jarrett wasn’t home free, and he fretted about the overheating that his debris-battered No. 11 Ford had to endure in the baking sun. He backed off the throttle, preserving his growing lead over eventual runner-up Buddy Baker, who drove in relief of his father, Buck. The Baker entry had its own issues with rising temperatures and could get no closer.

The Bondy Long pit board that showed Jarrett the word “Water?” just moments earlier was soon chalked with a dollar sign. Though Baker had pulled up to Jarrett’s bumper in time for photos of the finish, the number of laps in the margin of victory required a hands-and-toes count. Just 15 of the 44 starters were running at the finish, and Jarrett stood atop them all.

“It was quite a ride, there was no doubt about it,” Jarrett told Economaki before recalling his speaking engagement on the eve of the race. “Don’t let anyone ever tell you that prayer don’t help.”

Ned Jarrett enjoys Victory Lane at Darlington Raceway with his family and car owner Bondy Long (at right) after winning the Southern 500 by 14 laps in 1965.
NASCAR Research & Archives Center | Getty Images

* * *

The Jarrett family still claims the neighboring towns of Newton, Conover and Hickory in the North Carolina foothills as their homes, but for a brief window in the 1960s, Camden, South Carolina, got the billing.

“Camden is no racing hotbed,” Ned Jarrett noted back then, even though the town sits just a 45-minute drive east to Darlington. So when word of Jarrett’s Southern 500 triumph spread, the veteran driver was one of the most surprised.

“Most of them had never paid the slightest attention to stock-car racing until I moved there two years ago,” Jarrett told the Richmond Times-Dispatch a week after his victory. “Now they listen to radio broadcasts of races and talk to me about racing. They gave me a welcome home after Darlington I’ll never forget.”

Jarrett returned to find his home’s lights on in the setting sun and his driveway and lawn filled with well-wishers. A banner spread across the front of the house touting his Darlington win, and though 10 races remained on the Cup Series schedule that season, the party felt like a coronation for Jarrett’s commanding lead in the standings.

“People were everywhere. Oh, it was just unbelievable,” Dale Jarrett says. “They had decorated, and they basically went ahead and crowned Dad as the champion and the Southern 500 winner. So it was just amazing to see how the town had embraced our family. It was just a small town, just like what we came from in Conover, North Carolina, and it was just great that they understood that and how much it meant.”

MORE: Memorable moments at Darlington

The massive Southern 500 victory was the 49th of Ned Jarrett’s 50 career wins. Less than a year later, with Ford briefly withdrawing from stock-car competition, Jarrett found himself without a regular ride. He announced his retirement from driving at the relatively young age of 33.

“I feel that I have accomplished about as much as one driver could expect to …,” Jarrett told the Bristol Herald Courier then. “My goal has always been to quit when I’m as high up the ladder as I’ve ever been. I don’t want to go down the other side.”

Darlington remained a revered place for the Jarrett family after the transition. Ned Jarrett returned many times as a broadcaster and a dignitary, and his son, Dale, cherished his time racing at NASCAR’s first superspeedway, growing up nearby and keeping the tradition of the Darlington Stripe in the family for a new generation.

“It’s just a special place because of what the track is and the history of it,” Dale Jarrett says. “I mean, you talk about 75 years coming up, and it’s just amazing through the years when you look back at the great champions that have raced and won there. To be a part of that, even though I never won the Southern 500, I did win the spring race three times, and it’s just amazing to be able to follow in my dad’s footsteps and win at such a difficult race track like that. So it holds a special place in our heart, again for many reasons.”

Years later, Ned Jarrett called Darlington “the toughest track that was, and still is, run by NASCAR.” Jarrett was known as a meticulous planner, one who took great care in his preparation and his approach. Winning the Southern 500 was one of the goals he’d set, and it remains one of his most memorable accomplishments. The record-setting margin means it won’t be forgotten.

“As far as races that I’ve won, it ranks at the top,” Jarrett told the Florence Morning News in 1999. “The absolute top.”

Ned Jarrett signs an autograph on a Rockingham race program during the Darlington Historic Racing Festival in 2010
Rusty Jarrett | Getty Images

At the top and bottom of the NASCAR Xfinity Series standings, there are plenty of unresolved issues with two races left in the regular season.

Those issues should gain considerable clarity, however, after Saturday’s Pacific Office Automation 147 at Portland International Raceway (7:30 p.m. ET on CW, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

RELATED: Xfinity Series standings | Weekend schedule

In the battle for the Regular Season Championship, Justin Allgaier holds a three-point lead over JR Motorsports teammate Connor Zilisch, a seven-time winner this season.

Zilisch, who got a major assist from relief driver Parker Kligerman in his victory last Friday at Daytona, has accumulated 36 playoff points. Allgaier has 24, and no other driver in the series has more than eight.

Nevertheless, the race for the regular-season title can’t be characterized as a two-driver affair with two events remaining before the 12-driver playoff field is set. Though Sam Mayer, who is highly skilled on road courses, has only eight playoff points, he is only 26 points behind Allgaier in the regular-season standings.

Despite posting just one victory, Mayer has stayed close with consistent performances, equaling Allgaier’s totals for top fives (12) and top 10s (15) in 24 starts.

“Yeah, it’s great to be consistent and all, but you want to win, because when it comes to the playoffs, the bonus points you get are the only thing that matters,” said Mayer, who ran third on the winding 1.967-mile Portland road course in 2023 and won the pole last year before finishing 28th.

“We’re going to keep working on that. We have two more shots at it, and I think we’ll be good at both of those races, so it’s just a matter of getting the job done. The ‘W’ is the only thing on the mind right now.”

MORE: Xfinity entry list: Portland

To get the win, however, he’ll have to beat Zilisch, who has won three road-course races this season and five of the last six races overall.

At the bottom of the standings, there are still four playoff spots to be decided. Harrison Burton currently leads cousin Jeb Burton by 36 points for the final postseason berth.

After weeks of fretting over who would make it into the playoffs, the good news is that the field of 16 championship-chasing drivers is finally set. The bad news? Just about every playoff driver can now immediately shift to worrying about being in the top 12 in three weeks’ time. Forget about feeling comfortable: There’s always heightened intensity at this stage of the season, and it can only rise from here.

RELATED: Printable bracket | Playoff Grid Challenge presented by Goodyear

To help quantify who is under the most pressure — and who has the greatest opportunity to alleviate it for themselves — we are dusting off our playoff simulator model from last season to run 10,000 alternate versions of how the next 10 races might play out. This year’s version has a few improvements, headlined by the use of the more predictive Driver Rating metric (rather than pure finishing quality) as the backbone of the predictions. For more about how the system works, read here — or otherwise, scroll down to see the initial forecast odds and find out which drivers have no sooner made the playoffs than they are right back on elimination watch.

Chart showing odds of playoff drivers advancing in each round of the 2025 playoffs.

Unsurprisingly, three of the four lowest-ranked drivers in the initial playoff point standings are also among the most likely names to be knocked out: Austin Dillon, Alex Bowman and Josh Berry. The exception among the lowest-ranked drivers is Tyler Reddick, who has a surprisingly strong 68 percent chance to advance despite currently sitting a point below the cutline. At the same time, Ross Chastain is down at 53 percent to make the Round of 12 despite entering the playoffs a point to the good.

What gives? For one thing, Reddick has been in better form than Chastain this season, despite having one fewer win. The former leads the latter in top-five finishes, average finish and — most importantly for our predictive purposes here — average Driver Rating, with the No. 45 car handily topping the No. 1 in that regard, 88.1 to 75.4. With two ovals to work with this round, where Reddick has been far better than Chastain this season, it helps explain why Ross is an underdog despite the more favorable situation in the points.

Chart showing the expected finishes in the Round of 16 of Tyler Reddick vs. Ross Chastain.

Still, both drivers are unquestionably under huge pressure starting this weekend at Darlington — and the simulations back up that feeling. Because Reddick has a strong history there, and is expected to be among the favorites, he can’t afford to have a weak Southern 500 finish and still be in a solid position to advance this round. If Reddick finishes outside the top 20, for instance, his odds to make the Round of 12 fall from their current 68 percent level to just 44 percent, the biggest drop-off of any driver in simulations where they finish outside the top 20 on Sunday evening:

Chart showing who can least afford a bad finish at Darlington Raceway in the opening race of the Round of 16 of the 2025 playoffs.

Such downside risk is one very obvious version of pressure — the kind where you don’t have the luxury of an off-day at a track where you’re supposed to do well. But there’s also the pressure to take advantage of a chance to boost your odds. Shane van Gisbergen could gain 19 points of advancement probability with a top-20 finish at an oval, where he’s tended to struggle (43.7 average Driver Rating) this season. Austin Dillon’s chances of advancing could pick up a whopping 31 percentage points if he finishes among the top 10 on Sunday. And nobody’s odds are more certain to change, one way or the other, than Chastain’s between now and the end of the Southern 500.

We can quantify that by using one of our favorite data points that falls out of these simulations — the “leverage index” for each driver in a race. What does that mean, exactly? Borrowing from the same concept in baseball analytics, we can calculate the average swing in a driver’s advancement odds — positive or negative — resulting from all possible outcomes he might have. The result is perhaps the best single measurement of pressure, as it captures the “do-or-die” nature of any given race for a driver, causing their odds to shift dramatically regardless of the circumstances.

Going back to Chastain, he faces the highest leverage of any playoff driver right away in Darlington, with an average change of +/- 17.7 percentage points in his odds to make the Round of 12 across all simulated outcomes. He gains 29 points with a top 10, but he loses 27 points if he finishes outside the top 30 — just to provide a few examples of how much Darlington will potentially move his advancement needle.

Chart showing how each playoff driver's finish at Darlington will affect his chances of advancing in the playoffs.

Berry and Dillon aren’t far behind Chastain in the leverage department, and they should each be rivals to watch all round long. But the biggest Round of 16 rivalry in terms of leverage — combining the swing in one driver’s advancement odds depending on if another makes or misses the Round of 12, weighted by the likelihood of each outcome — is Josh Berry versus Alex Bowman. Here’s a breakdown of each driver’s chances to advance, conditional on the other driver advancing (or not):

Chart showing the percentage chances of Alex Bowman and Josh Berry advancing past the Round of 16 in the 2025 playoffs -- or not.

In the simulations, there was only a 28 percent chance that both Bowman and Berry could simultaneously escape the Round of 16, while there was a 55 percent chance that one would make it out while the other didn’t — and even a 16 percent chance that both would fail to advance.

Most likely, that means the two will be locked in a bitter fight that starts as soon as the green flag drops at Darlington, part of a Southern 500 that will set the tone for the playoffs as a whole: every lap carries big-time playoff consequences, and the only guarantee is relentless pressure from the very start.

Racing Insights is doing something different with its NASCAR Insights stats for the playoffs by providing numbers specifically tailored to the Round of 16. By looking at statistics at similar tracks, they’ve come up with rankings in the categories of speed, long-run speed, passing, defense and restarts to give a glimpse of drivers’ strengths and weaknesses for the first three races of the Cup Series Playoffs at Darlington Raceway, World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway and Bristol Motor Speedway.

RELATED: Standings | Get to know playoff drivers

What’s immediately noticeable in the numbers is Daytona winner Ryan Blaney ranks first among full-time drivers in speed, long-run speed and passing. At seventh in defense and fourth in restarts, Blaney’s total score of 14 puts him at the very top of the list (see table below). This is notable because Blaney has yet to win at any of the tracks in the Round of 16 — but he has had some strong performances there lately, where it’s not hard to imagine him being in Victory Lane at any of the three tracks.

That said, Denny Hamlin and William Byron aren’t that far off from Blaney with total scores of 16 and 17, respectively. Hamlin ranks second in long-run speed and defense, third in speed, fourth in passing and fifth on restarts. Byron is first on restarts, second in both speed and passing, third on long-run speed and ninth on defense. Expect Hamlin and Byron to be like Blaney and advance to the Round of 12 rather easily, barring unforeseen circumstances such as wrecks or mechanical issues.

RELATED: Printable playoff grid

On the flipside of the equation are Shane van Gisbergen and Austin Dillon. SVG is the lowest playoff driver on the list with a total score of 156 as he ranks 28th in defense, 29th in long-run speed, 31st in speed, 33rd in passing and 35th in restarts on tracks similar to the ones in the Round of 16. Therefore, for the Round of 12 race at the Charlotte Roval to be a factor for the road-course ace, he’ll need to buck the statistical trends and hope for some bad luck for other playoff drivers in the opening round.

Dillon, meanwhile, is more within reach of the other playoff drivers than SVG with a total score of 102. He ranks 14th in defense, 18th in long-run speed, 21st in passing, 22nd in speed and 27th on restarts. Darlington is probably Dillon’s best chance for a top-10 finish in the Round of 16, so it’s imperative he gets off to a good start there.

But if you’re looking for a dark-horse driver who might punch above his weight so to speak, look no further than Tyler Reddick. Although Reddick enters Darlington below the cutoff line 14th in the standings, he’s the sixth-best driver on the NASCAR Insights list with a total score of 41. Reddick ranks third in passing, sixth in speed, ninth in long-run speed, 11th on defense and 12th on restarts. Reddick hasn’t had the statistical growth this season that he’s enjoyed in the past, but the possibility is still there for him to put things together and go on a run.

MORE: Playoffs Grid Challenge presented by Goodyear

Enjoy looking at the numbers and coming up with some of your own conclusions from the table below:

DriverSpeedLongRunPassingDefenseRestartsTotal
Ryan Blaney*1117414
Denny Hamlin*3242516
William Byron*2329117
Christopher Bell*5566830
Kyle Larson*441410234
Tyler Reddick*693111241
Joey Logano*118731443
Chase Elliott*711551745
Ross Chastain*181391748
Austin Cindric*878121651
Bubba Wallace*9101217351
Josh Berry*10616131863
Brad Keselowski15141941365
Chase Briscoe*14151816972
Alex Bowman*12122025675
Ryan Preece161713211077
AJ Allmendinger171617201181
Kyle Busch20231082081
Carson Hocevar132011321591
Austin Dillon*2218211427102
Ty Gibbs1921152622103
Chris Buescher2119252223110
Zane Smith2522271824116
Erik Jones2325241928119
Daniel Suarez2728261525121
Michael McDowell2626222921124
Noah Gragson2827302419128
Justin Haley2424233030131
John H Nemechek2930282331141
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.3035293129154
Shane van Gisbergen*3129332835156
Todd Gilliland3332323326156
Cole Custer3531342734161
Ty Dillon3233313432162
Riley Herbst3434353533171
Cody Ware3636363636180

*Denotes playoff driver

Shane van Gisbergen might be entering his first NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs campaign as the most lightly regarded four-race winner in recent memory. Chalk some of the shorter shrift up to his designation as a Cup Series rookie, even one with veteran credentials, but also for his role as a road-course specialist and a relative newbie on oval tracks.

Either way, van Gisbergen seems OK with it.

“It’s always fun to have your back against the wall, right, and have to push hard,” the 36-year-old New Zealander said during Wednesday’s Cup Series Playoffs Media Day rounds. “I don’t use it for motivation or anything, but it’s cool being the underdog.”

Van Gisbergen enters the 10-race postseason as one of the field of 16’s largest question marks heading into Sunday’s Cook Out Southern 500 (6 p.m. ET, USA Network, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) at the historic Darlington Raceway. He joins a handful of others with aspirations of making a deep charge into the elimination-style bracket in spite of how their spot in the Cup Series standings might favor them.

RELATED: Weekend schedule: Darlington | Printable Playoffs bracket

Van Gisbergen — who finished the regular season 25th in points before the standings were re-seeded — dashed onto the playoff grid with four dominating victories on road courses, prevailing in Mexico City, Chicago, Sonoma Raceway and Watkins Glen International in order. His next prime road-race opportunity comes in the Round of 12 finale at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval, meaning he’ll have to survive the oval gauntlet of Darlington, World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway and Bristol Motor Speedway to advance past the opening round.

Trackhouse Racing teammate Ross Chastain says he’s seen strides from SVG on the oval tracks that make up the majority of the Cup Series schedule. Though van Gisbergen has yet to post a top-10 finish on an oval this year, Chastain said his teammate’s progress is enough to boost his company-wide confidence.

“The gap from the 1 to the 88 on the ovals has shrunk,” said Chastain, using the car numbers belonging to him and his teammate. “If we’re fast, I expect him to be right there with us. He’s put the time in and learned the cars. You’ll always be better with more experience, but there’s enough there that if Trackhouse performs the way we want to, he can make a lot of people wrong, and one of them won’t be me. I expect him to be right there with me wherever I’m at.”

Other one-time winners face similar questions about their postseason expectations. On his “Actions Detrimental” podcast, Denny Hamlin was asked which four drivers would be the first to be eliminated from playoff contention. His answers: Josh Berry, Austin Cindric, Austin Dillon and van Gisbergen. Those same four also dwell at the lower end of the oddsmakers’ betting boards for the Cup Series championship.

“Guess we’ll have to watch, won’t we?” Cindric said with a smile after learning of Hamlin’s picks. The Team Penske No. 2 Ford driver had the best points finish of that group before re-seeding, ending the regular season 15th. He also has recent success at a pair of playoff tracks, winning at Talladega Superspeedway in April to clinch his third postseason berth in four years, and prevailing at World Wide Technology Raceway last season.

Is Cindric entering the playoffs under the so-called radar? “I would love to be invisible for the first two rounds, because I know I’ll make it to the Round of 8,” he quipped.

Berry, driving for the Penske-affiliated Wood Brothers team, ended the regular season 21st in the Cup Series standings. He provided a highlight to his first season in the No. 21 Ford early on, winning at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in the fifth race of the year to ensure his place on the playoff list.

MORE: Cup Series standings | Paint Scheme Preview

Since then, positive results have been a little harder to come by. Berry has not posted a top-five result since Vegas, though he stacked finishes of eighth at Richmond and ninth at Daytona to close out the regular season with some modest momentum.

“We’re in a day and age right now, everybody’s worried about consistency, right?” Berry said. “Everybody’s worried about, they want to bring back the old point system, and they want to do this different. It’s just the flavor of the week right now, I feel like. So it’s easy to look at us and feel like we’re not deserving, but ultimately, we won our race, won my first race that advanced us to the playoffs, and I feel like there’s plenty of races along the way that we’ve been fast. And so yeah, I don’t view us as a team that’s an easy first-round exit. I feel like we can hold our own and we’re ready to do it.”

Several drivers and teams view the postseason as an opportunity to reset, but Dillon and his No. 3 Richard Childress Racing team elected to start that process sooner. Dillon said that after Dover Motor Speedway on July 20, the No. 3 group made a wholesale re-evaluation of its plan for the final five races of the regular season. That stretch yielded a convincing repeat win at Richmond Raceway, sealing one of the last available playoff berths.

Even with Dillon’s net gain, he still ended the regular season 26th in points — lowest of the 16 playoff drivers before re-seeding. If that’s reason to discount his playoff aims, Dillon says that’s where he’s found motivation.

“I always use it as fuel, but I feel like I have really a good confidence and a calm about it, like I don’t have anything to prove in that sense,” Dillon said. “I’m just really happy with where we’re at as an organization because the first quarter of the season, I would have said differently. But now I feel confident, like I feel good that we can execute and make a good push and run.”

MORE: Learn about 2025 Grid Challenge, sign up now!

That road starts this weekend at Darlington, a grueling, asymmetrical oval where van Gisbergen has competed twice before in the Cup Series and has a best finish of seventh in Xfinity competition. The chatter about writing him off, SVG says he’s already tuned that out.

“Yeah, which is great. Doesn’t worry us and puts no pressure on us, right?” van Gisbergen said. “So if we have a good week this week, it makes the next few harder, but if we have a tough week, it puts us in a hole, and it’s gonna be hard to get out of it. So hopefully it’ll be nice to prove people wrong, too.”

CHARLOTTE, N.C.— Unlike in previous years, none of the frontrunners competing in this season’s NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs could — or were willing to — name an absolute favorite to hoist the champion’s trophy Nov. 2 at Phoenix.

In fact, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell, a three-race winner, said he’s feeling as calm as he’s ever felt entering the 10-race playoff stretch that begins Sunday in the Cook Out Southern 500 at historic Darlington  Raceway (6 p.m. ET, USA Network, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).

That was a pervasive vibe throughout Wednesday’s Playoff Media Day among the 16 drivers who will race for the 2025 title.

Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin was first to meet with reporters at the Charlotte Convention Center. His 19-year string of playoff appearances is the longest in the series. Hamlin’s four victories this season are also tied for most in the series, but the 44-year-old insisted his expectations are no different this year as he tries once again to secure a first championship.

RELATED: Darlington schedule | Deep dive into playoff seedings

“It’s too hard to predict because it’s unpredictable,” said Hamlin, who goes into the championship run ranked third in the points standings, three points behind co-leaders Kyle Larson and William Byron.

“Our average finish drops every year in the playoffs,” he continued. “We run better in the final 10 (races) than we do the rest of the season. It’s just a matter of all the other variables. Does someone below the cutline win and get in and knock us out, or does someone ride the wall and knock us out?

“I’m so tainted that I’m just very nonchalant and like, ‘Let’s just win races and see where this thing ends up.’”

Although he has qualified for the playoffs for seven straight years, 2025 Regular Season Champion William Byron is also looking to land his first NASCAR Cup Series title after finishing third the previous two seasons.

The driver of the No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet won his second consecutive Daytona 500 in February, added a win at Iowa earlier this month and ultimately wrapped up the regular-season title with one race still remaining.

“I think in our position, we’ve had that conversation of just trying to stack some more points and stack some more race wins,” Byron said. “We’ve been in this position before and feel like we kind of understand the cadence of this first round.

“It’d be really nice just to go out there and win one of these just to take the pressure off and have some forward momentum as well. They are good tracks for us.”

Here’s what’s happening in NASCAR with the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona International Speedway in the rearview and Sunday’s Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway up next (6 p.m. ET, USA Network, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).

HOW TO WATCH: NASCAR on NBC, USA | Driver Cams on HBO Max

1. Smallest safety net in playoff history ensures no driver is comfortable

Elimination is a genuine threat for all 16 drivers, even the Hendrick teammates at the top.

It was a wild ride, but we’re finally here.

The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs have arrived, and we’re already looking at everyone’s favorite subject: math.

MORE: Darlington entry list | Printable 2025 playoff grid

Hendrick Motorsports drivers Kyle Larson and William Byron enter tied for the points lead — with just 26 points separating them from the cutoff line. It’s the smallest cushion any top seed has ever possessed in the current playoff format, turning what has historically been a comfortable advantage into barely enough breathing room right from the get-go.

Previous No. 1s entered with cushions ranging from 40 to 57 points; margins that could absorb a mechanical failure or late-race accident in the opening round. Larson and the Regular Season Champion Byron’s predicament reflects a season where excellence found peaks and valleys, competition at the top was spread super thin, and no driver truly separated themselves from the pack for the bulk of the 26-race regular season.

The implications ripple throughout the entire field, too.

Historical data shows the bubble to advance from the Round of 16 typically has been five or fewer points in eight of the past 11 seasons, meaning roughly half the field could realistically flip positions based on a single race’s outcome. When the supposed championship favorites are this vulnerable, everyone below them becomes a legitimate threat.

Alex Bowman, who made the playoffs about as narrowly as one can, exemplifies this volatility. Sitting five points below the cutline in 16th place, he needs to average 24.3 points per race to advance; historically achievable but requiring consistency he hasn’t demonstrated at playoff tracks. His spring performances at Darlington (35th) and Bristol (37th) netted just 20 total points, second-fewest among playoff drivers. Yet Bowman has won poles at the two most recent Bristol races and led significant laps before mechanical failures intervened. The margin between disaster and triumph has never been thinner.

The compression extends beyond individual drivers to entire teams. Hendrick Motorsports, with four playoff entries, could hypothetically see half its roster eliminated in the opening round despite dominant regular-season statistics. Its drivers combined have won seven races this year, yet three of them — Chase Elliott (7th), Byron (2nd) and Larson (1st) — start with smaller point advantages than any top-seven seeds in playoff history.

MORE: Historical trends of playoff seeds

The tight standings also amplify the importance of track-specific performance. Tyler Reddick enters 14th, one point below the cutline, but has led 317 laps at Darlington in the Next Gen era — third-most of any driver. His spring fourth-place finish demonstrates the speed that could vault him forward at a track that feels tailor-made for him. Conversely, 2023 champion Ryan Blaney’s six-race top-10 streak — including a Daytona win — masks concerning struggles at Darlington, where his 18.8 average finish ranks among his worst at any track.

Historical precedent suggests this compression could also produce dramatic swings.

Chase Briscoe overcame a 21-point deficit in 2024’s opening round, while Joey Logano advanced to win last year’s championship despite earning the 12th seed. With the top seeds this vulnerable, the entire hierarchy becomes fluid.

And the psychological pressure compounds the mathematical reality, as drivers accustomed to points cushions must now toil with elimination urgency from the opening green flag.

Ross Chastain, making his 250th career start at Darlington, sits just one point above the cutline and risks being eliminated in the playoffs’ first round for the first time. Even his proven track record — seventh or better in three of the last four Darlington races — provides little comfort, when a single mistake could end his championship hopes at one of the most volatile tracks on the schedule.

Shane van Gisbergen’s presence adds another variable. The road course specialist’s 16-point cushion looks substantial (relatively speaking) until considering his oval inexperience. His 20th-place spring finish at Darlington, though, represents unknown territory for a driver whose four wins came exclusively on road courses. If the rookie van Gisbergen struggles, as some but not all anticipate, it creates opportunities for drivers currently below the cut.

The 2025 playoffs begin not with the usual collection of safe favorites and desperate long shots, but with 16 drivers genuinely threatened by elimination. When mathematical certainty dissolves, racing’s fundamental truth emerges: on any given Sunday, anyone can win.

And this year, everyone must.

Meg Oliphant | Getty Images

2. The Denny Hamlin paradox: Master of Darlington, stranger to championships

The future Hall of Famer dominates Darlington yet struggles to secure a NASCAR title, embodying a career of individual-race brilliance but playoff heartbreak.

Denny Hamlin’s talent level when he’s holding a steering wheel and whipping around Darlington Raceway borders on the supernatural.

The No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing driver owns a pristine 7.9 average finish there, standing as the best in track history among drivers with more than two starts. He’s led laps in 11 consecutive races at the track, a streak spanning five years and rivaling legends like Darrell Waltrip’s 17-race run from the 1970s and ’80s. Hamlin owns five wins at the South Carolina venue, including this past spring, and scored stage points in all but six of the 30 stages attempted.

Yet Sunday night’s Southern 500 serves as the perfect metaphor for Hamlin’s career: complete mastery of individual moments — and persistent failure when championships hang in the balance. At 44 years old, turning 45 in November, he would become the third-oldest champion in NASCAR history if he finally breaks through 10 weeks from now. It’s almost poetically fitting how it starts, though: the track that loves him most opens the playoffs that have consistently rejected him, specifically.

RELATED: Cup Series standings | 2025 schedule 

By every measurable standard, Hamlin should dominate the playoffs’ opening round, at least. He arrives Sunday having won the spring Darlington race, finishes of second at Gateway each of the past two years and has recorded four consecutive top-four finishes at Bristol, two of which were wins.

But NASCAR’s elimination format has never played out on logic alone, especially where Hamlin is concerned.

Despite 19 playoff appearances — more than any active driver — he’s reached the Championship 4 just four times and never captured the title that would put the final stamp on his already locked-down Hall of Fame credentials. His playoff history reads like a catalog of near misses: second in points in 2010, an appearance in the debut Championship 4 in 2014 and then three more consistent Championship 4 bids from 2019-2021.

All were opportunities. All came up short.

Darlington rewards patience and punishes desperation — idiosyncrasies that should favor the experienced Hamlin against a field containing two first-time playoff participants and several drivers with poor track records. Shane van Gisbergen finished 20th here in April, his best Cup oval finish. Josh Berry managed just 36th in the spring despite a third-place run in 2024. Alex Bowman, sitting five points below the cutline, scored just three points in his last Darlington start.

The strongest threats to Hamlin come from drivers who, like him, have mastered Darlington’s unique demands. Tyler Reddick — his 23XI Racing employee — has three top-three finishes there in the Next Gen era, more than any other driver, and his 319 laps led at the track represent his highest total anywhere. Chase Briscoe won here last September when facing elimination, proving the track rewards aggressive racing under pressure — if a driver can keep his cool.

William Byron presents the most intriguing challenge. His spring performance, leading the first 243 laps before finishing second, demonstrated both speed and the kind of pit-strategy mistakes that can doom championship campaigns if they happen at the wrong time. Byron has the best average finish (9.14) among active drivers at Darlington in the Next Gen era, but his tendency to excel early and struggle late (both in races and as a season-long trend) mirrors Hamlin’s career-long championship timing issues.

Sunday night, then, will determine whether Darlington rewards its most accomplished master or delivers another cruel lesson about the difference between individual excellence and championship timing.

And whether that’ll be the case for Hamlin the rest of the way, like it historically has been.

Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images

3. Will SVG escape the Round of 16?

The hosts of NASCAR Inside the Race break down what Shane van Gisbergen needs to do to advance out of the Round of 16 in the Cup Series Playoffs.

4. Playoff stalwarts — drivers, teams with most postseason wins

Four of the six winningest organizations and three of the seven winningest drivers in playoff history will be competing for this year’s title as well. Will their past successes portend future postseason gains?  (Credit: Racing Insights)

TeamWinsDriverWins
Hendrick Motorsports60Jimmie Johnson29
Joe Gibbs Racing37Kevin Harvick16
Team Penske32Joey Logano15
Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing24Denny Hamlin13
Stewart-Haas Racing19Kyle Larson11
Richard Childress Racing12Tony Stewart11
Martin Truex Jr.10

5. Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage

Paint Scheme Preview: 2025 Darlington Southern 500

Three Up, Three Down: Drivers in focus leaving Daytona

Analysis: We might look back at Daytona as Blaney’s turn toward a title

NASCAR Insights: Byron, Wallace finish regular season ranked top 10 in all categories

Jeff Gordon’s incredible Darlington success comes into focus ahead of Southern 500

Power Rankings: Ross Chastain’s summer lull set to end at the Southern 500?

2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs field is set

‘He has the firepower’: Dissecting Bowman’s playoff outlook

Meet the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs field

How the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs Grid Challenge works

@nascarcasm: Fake texts to Daytona winner Ryan Blaney

Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images

The NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series heads to Darlington Raceway on Saturday for the Sober or Slammer 200 (Noon ET, FS1, NASCAR Racing Network Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) to kick off the seven-race playoffs. Truck Series qualifying will begin at 4:10 p.m. ET on Friday after practice, which starts at 3:05 p.m. ET. Practice and qualifying will both air on FS2.

QUALIFYING ORDER: Cup Series | Xfinity Series at Portland | Truck Series

The qualifying order is determined via a metric that combines the previous race finish by owner (70%) and current owner points position (30%).

Friday’s qualifying session will be just one lap and one round.

MORE: Darlington, Portland schedule | How to watch the Truck Series on FS1, FS2

# denotes series rookie
(i) denotes ineligible for driver points
P denotes playoff driver

Pos.Car No.DriverMetric ScorePractice Group
120Stefan Parson38.91
256Timmy Hill38.31
391Jack Wood35.91
474Caleb Costner34.21
52Stephen Mallozzi33.81
622Clayton Green32.81
733Mason Maggio (i)30.81
826Dawson Sutton #29.21
902Nathan Byrd27.61
1076Spencer Boyd27.41
115Toni Breidinger #24.91
1288Matt Crafton24.51
1344Andrés Pérez De Lara #19.81
1442Matt Mills18.81
1581Connor Mosack #18.01
1645Bayley Currey17.31
171Trevor Bayne16.92
1815Tanner Gray14.62
1999Ben Rhodes9.82
2017Giovanni Ruggiero #8.72
21177Corey LaJoie7.42
2219Daniel Hemric (P)24.32
2371Rajah Caruth (P)16.32
249Grant Enfinger (P)11.52
2552Kaden Honeycutt (P)9.72
2618Tyler Ankrum (P)9.52
2713Jake Garcia # (P)8.52
2838Chandler Smith (P)7.22
297Corey Day (i) (P)4.92
3098Ty Majeski (P)2.92
3134Layne Riggs (P)2.72
3211Corey Heim (P)1.02

The NASCAR Cup Series begins the 2025 postseason with a crown jewel in the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. Qualifying at the 1.366-miler begins at 10:10 a.m. ET on Friday (truTV, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

QUALIFYING ORDER: Cup Series | Xfinity Series at Portland | Truck Series

The qualifying order below is determined via metric that combines the previous race finish by owner (70%) and current owner points position (30%).

Saturday’s qualifying session will be one lap and one round.

The race itself will be on Sunday (6 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).

MORE: How to watch NASCAR on NBC, USA | Driver Cams on HBO Max | Weekend schedule

# denotes series rookie
(i) denotes ineligible for driver points
P denotes playoff driver 

Pos.Car No.DriverMetric ScoreGroup
135Riley Herbst #38.51
24Noah Gragson36.81
347Ricky Stenhouse Jr.33.21
444Derek Kraus *32.51
566Josh Bilicki (i) *32.01
677Carson Hocevar31.31
738Zane Smith *30.11
88Kyle Busch29.11
910Ty Dillon25.01
1051Cody Ware24.81
1116AJ Allmendinger24.51
1242John Hunter Nemechek19.71
136Brad Keselowski19.21
1434Todd Gilliland *17.01
1571Michael McDowell15.31
1660Ryan Preece15.21
1741Cole Custer12.71
1854Ty Gibbs11.31
197Justin Haley11.11
2043Erik Jones10.72
2117Chris Buescher10.02
2299Daniel Suárez9.52
232Austin Cindric (P)30.32
2448Alex Bowman (P)30.02
2523Bubba Wallace (P) *28.62
2622Joey Logano (P)22.52
273Austin Dillon (P)21.32
2845Tyler Reddick (P) *18.92
2919Chase Briscoe (P)18.52
3011Denny Hamlin (P)18.42
3124William Byron (P)13.92
321Ross Chastain (P)13.82
3388Shane van Gisbergen # (P)12.72
3420Christopher Bell (P)10.92
3521Josh Berry (P)10.22
369Chase Elliott (P)9.12
375Kyle Larson (P)4.52
3812Ryan Blaney (P)1.92

The NASCAR Xfinity Series treks to the Pacific Northwest for its penultimate regular-season contest in the Pacific Office Automation 147 at Portland International Raceway on Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET, The CW, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Qualifying will be earlier that day at 4:05 p.m. ET on The CW App.

QUALIFYING ORDER: Cup Series | Xfinity Series at Portland | Truck Series

Saturday’s qualifying session will consist of one round, split into two 20-minute groups. The groups below are determined via a metric that combines the previous race finish by owner (70%) and current owner points position (30%). There will be a 50-minute practice session for all cars beforehand, which will be available on The CW App at 3 p.m. ET.

MORE: How to watch NASCAR on The CW | Weekend schedule

# denotes series rookie
(i) denotes ineligible for driver points

Pos. Car No. Driver Metric Score Group
1 24 Alon Day 40.4 1
2 4 Parker Retzlaff 34.4 1
3 45 Vicente Salas 34.0 1
4 42 Anthony Alfredo 33.4 1
5 51 Jeremy Clements 32.1 1
6 32 Austin Green 31.4 1
7 99 Matt DiBenedetto 30.3 1
8 10 Daniel Dye # 30.2 1
9 70 Thomas Annunziata 28.1 1
10 16 Christian Eckes # 27.5 1
11 28 Joey Hand 27.3 1
12 39 Ryan Sieg 26.2 1
13 53 Kyle Sieg 25.5 1
14 54 Taylor Gray # 24.0 1
15 35 Takuma Koga 22.5 1
16 91 Josh Williams 21.9 1
17 19 Jack Perkins 20.4 1
18 48 Nick Sanchez # 20.0 1
19 11 Will Brown 19.6 1
20 21 Austin Hill 19.0 2
21 27 Jeb Burton 18.2 2
22 07 Alex Labbe 18.1 2
23 31 Blaine Perkins 17.9 2
24 71 Ryan Ellis 16.4 2
25 14 Garrett Smithley 16.1 2
26 18 William Sawalich # 15.0 2
27 00 Sheldon Creed 14.6 2
28 25 Harrison Burton 14.5 2
29 44 Brennan Poole 11.7 2
30 26 Dean Thompson # 9.7 2
31 1 Carson Kvapil # 9.1 2
32 20 Brandon Jones 6.6 2
33 41 Sam Mayer 4.4 2
34 2 Jesse Love 4.0 2
35 8 Sammy Smith 3.2 2
36 7 Justin Allgaier 2.7 2
37 88 Connor Zilisch # 1.0 2