UPDATE: The Nos. 88, 42 cars of Alex Bowman and Kyle Larson, respectively, to the rear, car chiefs ejected and 30-minute hold in next race first practice for failing pre-race inspection three times. The No. 3 car of Austin Dillon will start at the rear for noncompliance splitter.
Kyle Larson won the Busch Pole Qualifying Award and will start in the top position in Sunday’s AAA 400 Drive for Autism (2 p.m. ET on FS1, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) at Dover International Speedway. After three practice sessions for this race, we’ve dissected the numbers and 10-lap averages to offer a suggested lineup worthy of your Fantasy Live consideration as you go to make roster decisions for the 11th Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race of 2018.
Pat DeCola’s revised Fantasy Live lineup following practices and the lineup being set:
1: Kevin Harvick
2: Clint Bowyer
3: Ryan Blaney
4: Daniel Suarez
5: Aric Almirola
Garage: Chase Elliott
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MORE: Fantasy analysis for Dover | Driver stats | Full lineup | 10-lap averages
Analysis: OK, so, I might be crazy. Or I might be onto something. Either way, we won’t know until we find out how Kyle Larson fares in Sunday’s 400-miler at Dover — because I’m not putting him in my lineup, garage, nothing.
Our in-house fantasy guru, RJ Kraft, (rightfully) built his lineup with the Chip Ganassi Racing driver as the cornerstone earlier this week in his Fantasy Fastlane piece, which made sense. Larson finished runner-up in this race the past two years and has led 85 or more laps in three of the past four Dover races — he even then went out and won the pole! Surely, he’s a no-brainer … and he would’ve been, until final practice.
Larson placed fourth in the session (after sporting a seventh-place showing in each of the first two sessions) and was asked afterward if he had a winning car. “I don’t know,” Larson replied, before explaining everything else wrong with his No. 42 Chevrolet. He was dejected and did not sound at all confident in his chances this weekend.
Larson’s deeper showings in final practice would indicate he’s right, too — the No. 42 didn’t rank in the top 10 in 10-, 15- or 20-lap averages for final practice.
It’s possible he’s playing coy, but I’ll take a driver’s word for it and not put stake in my precious lineup if he’s feeling iffy about his chances to win. I’d rather use Larson, whom I expect to heat up over the summer, when he’s feeling good about his car and on a hot streak.
Instead, I’m building around Kevin Harvick, whom RJ (again, rightfully) had been saving for the upcoming 1.5-mile races at Kansas and Charlotte.
For me, however, the No. 4 car has been too fast all weekend to ignore. Harvick will start alongside Larson on the front row, topped the best consecutive 20-lap averages in final practice and might get out front early and cruise as cars battle behind him. I like him to win at least Stage 1, too.
To go along with Harvick, I’m also starting two of his Stewart-Haas Racing teammates in Clint Bowyer and Aric Almirola. Bowyer topped final practice 10- and 15-lap averages and his No. 14 might be every bit as fast as Harvick’s No. 4. Almirola, for his part, led final practice overall in terms of best lap and was in the top five in 10-, 15- and 20-lap averages. He’s also had past success at Dover, in less competitive rides.
Anchoring my lineup is the talented duo of Ryan Blaney and Daniel Suarez. Both placed in the top five of 20-lap averages in final practice (with Blaney second there and in 15-lap averages). My usage is low on both, so now’s the time to capitalize.
I have Chase Elliott in my garage. The Hendrick Motorsports driver hasn’t lit the world on fire this weekend, but this race shaped up to be a breakout moment for him heading into the weekend — based on his recent history there — so I like having the option to plug him in if he appears headed for a top five or even a win.
RJ also had Martin Truex Jr. in his original lineup — and I strongly considered adding the defending champ to at least my garage — but his No. 78 has looked less sporty as the weekend wore on. I’d rather save him for weekends where he’s dominant throughout, which can happen often.