With a bunch of his trademark road and/or street courses coming up on the NASCAR Cup Series calendar, we had a hunch that Shane van Gisbergen was about to go on a sizzling summer hot streak. But even against those lofty expectations, what SVG has done on the twisty tracks has been shockingly dominant. In addition to winning from the pole by a margin of 16.6 seconds at Mexico City in mid-June, van Gisbergen fended off a crowded field of would-be challengers to once again claim victory from pole position on the streets of Chicago this past Sunday.
If you’re keeping track, that means SVG has a two-race winning streak on road courses, to go with five consecutive finishes of seventh or higher dating back to Watkins Glen International last September. In three career Cup starts at Chicago specifically, he has two wins, leading 44 of the 177 laps he’s run (24.9%, the highest of any driver) with a series-high average Driver Rating of 118.7. If we also include his Xfinity Series starts at Chicago — where he also won last week — SVG has now won four of the five races he’s entered there, with three poles and an average start of 2.2. Outside of Joey Chestnut at a hot dog-eating contest, it’s hard to think of someone in sports who’s dominated more than SVG on the streets of the “Windy City.”
That, in turn, has the NASCAR world buzzing this week about whether SVG is already the greatest road-course driver in Cup Series history, with another road course on the way at Sonoma Raceway this Sunday (3:30 p.m. ET, TNT Sports/truTV, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). There’s certainly a case to be made, though there are plenty of other contenders worth highlighting. (Especially as we head to what was Jeff Gordon’s playground for so many years.) So let’s run through each potential candidate for the crown of best road-course ace in the Cup Series’ modern era (since 1972), along with the metric(s) that give them the strongest case.
Shane van Gisbergen
Metrics: Highest winning percentage (33.3%) and average Driver Rating (113.8) on road courses in Cup Series history*
(* – Driver Rating only available since 2005.)

If you want a driver who maximizes his chances of winning each time out, it’s hard to go against van Gisbergen’s road-course record … at least on a per-race basis. SVG has won a third of the time on tracks with both left and right turns, better than double the success rate of Kyle Larson or even his mentor Marcos Ambrose, who is widely regarded as one of the best road-course ringers in Cup history. Only the late, great Tim Richmond (at 31.3%) was even close to SVG in terms of winning percentage. And it hasn’t been a fluke, either: Going back to 2005, SVG has been the most consistently dominant driver in the series on road courses, with an average Driver Rating that narrowly edges out Ambrose and is far above the mark of Chase Elliott, previously the clear top road-course racer in Cup before his losing streak on those tracks in recent years.
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Jeff Gordon
Metrics: Highest Wins Above Average (+7.9) on road courses in Cup Series history

A major case against SVG is simply one of sample size: He hasn’t sustained his dominance over anywhere near as many races as his rivals for the crown of road-course GOAT. That’s where this metric — Wins Above Average — comes in, as it compares a driver’s actual wins with the number we’d expect from a driver who won at an average rate for the fields he drove against. And by that standard, van Gisbergen still has a fair amount of ground to make up on Gordon, who won nearly eight more races in his career than an average driver would have in the same opportunities. Gordon is, of course, the all-time career leader in total road-course wins as well, sustaining a career full of podium finishes on turning circuits that spanned from a third-place finish at Sonoma in May 1995 to a runner-up at the same track in June 2014, nearly 20 years later. We’ll see where van Gisbergen is in two decades.
Cale Yarborough
Metrics: Highest share of laps led (36.9%), best average finish (7.4) and average start (3.8) on road courses in Cup Series history

As remarkable as SVG’s Cup Series career on road circuits has been, he can’t really hold a candle to Cale Yarborough’s combination of dominance and consistency at those tracks. Though his winning percentage was slightly lower — he won three times in 14 tries, or 21.4% of the time — Yarborough led 609 of a possible 1,649 laps (entirely at Riverside) in the 1970s and early 1980s, good for an all-time record rate of nearly 37%, roughly 15 percentage points higher than the next-highest (Richmond at 22%). Put another way: The gap in percentage points between Yarborough and Richmond was nearly as high as Gordon’s career share of laps led on road courses. Add in Yarborough’s all-time records for highest average start and finish — Yarborough was the king of absurdly low average start and finish stats in that era — and there’s a good case to be made that the driver of the iconic Junior Johnson No. 11 was also NASCAR history’s top statistical road-racer.
Marcos Ambrose
Metric: Highest Adjusted Points+ index (273) on road courses in Cup Series history

Longtime readers will know that one of my favorite metrics to use when judging a driver’s results is Adjusted Points+ index, which awards points for a driver’s finishes — with more emphasis on wins/high finishes than standard Cup scoring — and then scales that relative to a field average of 100. And when we look at the career leaders in that metric for road courses, nobody comes out looking better than Ambrose. After running a disappointing 42nd in his first career Cup race at Sonoma, the ringer-turned-regular finished eighth or better in 12 of his next 13 road races, a stretch of performances that was better relative to the competition than even SVG in the current era. (Let that sink in!) In the last golden era of true road-course ringers, from Boris Said to Scott Pruett and Jacques Villeneuve, Ambrose rose far above the rest.
Mark Martin
Metrics: Most Adjusted Points above average (+1,278.6) and top 10s above average (+20.8) on road courses in Cup Series history

In addition to being one of the most underrated drivers in Cup history, period, Martin was also one of the best road racers of his era. While his winning percentage of 8.5% lagged behind Gordon, Tony Stewart, Rusty Wallace and other contemporaries, he made up for it with consistently strong finishes across a sample of nearly 50 career road-course outings. No driver in history beat his average opponents in top 10s and total Adjusted Points more than the pride of Batesville, Arkansas — a testament to his talent, adaptability and longevity. During his most iconic era, driving the No. 6 car for Jack Roush from 1988-2006, Martin only had one subpar road-racing season by Adjusted Pts+ (2006) in a 19-year stretch.
Others to Consider
Though he didn’t lead the historical drivers in any of our major categories, Chase Elliott was the only name to rank among the top 10 in all of the stats we mentioned above (aside from average start). No, he hasn’t won at a twisty track since July 2021, 23 road races ago, but Elliott is still shy of his 30th birthday and will have plenty of chances to keep adding to a win tally just two behind Gordon’s all-time record. Also, Ricky Rudd deserves a shout-out here; the longtime driver of the Tide Ride (among many others) is actually the modern Cup leader in top fives above average (+19.3), though he didn’t fare as well in some of the other metrics we tracked. We already mentioned Tim Richmond’s stellar win rate, but it bears repeating as a point in favor of his GOAT case. Likewise, Tony Stewart’s No. 2 ranking in Wins Above Average (+7.2), just behind Gordon, works in concert with being one of only four drivers since 2005 with a triple-digit average Driver Rating on road courses — joining van Gisbergen, Ambrose and Elliott — to bolster his all-time argument. Similar to Martin and Rudd, Kyle Busch should get name-dropped for consistency and longevity; he leads all modern drivers in road course top 10s (33) and is second in top fives (22). Last but not least, Bobby Allison’s penchant for leading road-course laps (he did it 20.8% of the time, third behind Yarborough and Richmond) speaks to his dominance. And all of this is without even getting into pre-modern ringers like Dan Gurney, who won five times at Riverside in the 1960s.
The Verdict
So, who’s the GOAT of NASCAR road racing? As is often the case in these debates, it all depends on what you value the most: If you want the driver with the highest odds to win each time he gets behind the wheel, SVG is already the best. If you still want to see him prove it over a larger sample, Gordon remains the guy to beat, with Stewart not far behind. If you prize leading laps and running high from wire to wire, Yarborough or Allison can make a case — though their road races mostly came at one track, in a very different era. If a nice mix of consistency and dominance is your thing, Ambrose or even Elliott make a strong bid for No. 1. And for longevity, look to Martin, Rudd or Busch.
There’s not really a wrong answer, though some answers clearly have more evidence backing them than others, and van Gisbergen already has the resume to be taken seriously in that conversation, just a few years (and fewer than 10 road races) into his Cup career.



