2014 format means teams ‘go fast, or go home’
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Brad Keselowski has won the most races and enters this year’s Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup with the points lead.
But does that mean the Team Penske driver and 2012 champion is the most likely to win it all for a second time in three years?
Does anyone discount the chances of Jimmie Johnson? The winner of more Chase races (24) and championships (six) than anyone in the field, Johnson is the only driver to appear in every Chase he’s attempted, regardless of format.
With the quest for a record-tying seventh championship beginning in earnest this weekend, what are the chances we won’t see the Hendrick Motorsports driver among the final four in Homestead?
Or Jeff Gordon, looking more and more like the driver who had four titles in his pocket before his 30th birthday?
Kevin Harvick, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Joey Logano? Each has won multiple races this year. And, at times, each has looked invincible.
What about Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle and Ryan Newman, in the Chase yet still looking for that first win of the season? The first lap hasn’t been completed and those three already find themselves 12 points down to the leader. Will we see an early exit for one or more, or is the consistency that carried them into the 10-race playoff more beneficial than most realize?
It’s a healthy mix of former champions, veterans still searching for that first title and a couple of newcomers making their Chase debuts, and it adds up to a 16-team field, the largest since the championship-determining format was first rolled out in 2004.
But a little more than a month from now, when the Challenger Round gives way to the Contender Round, four of them will be gone.
From the beginning, the Chase has always included teams that were "eliminated" from title contention. Have a bad couple of races to start the Chase, and your group can begin preparing for next year.
But the new format brings finality to the process. Go fast or go home.
There are favorites and there are underdogs as the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series rolls into Chicago this weekend for the MyAFibStory.com 400 (ESPN, Sunday at 2 p.m. ET). It’s the fourth time the 1.5-mile track has hosted the kickoff to the Chase, and twice the race winner has gone on to clinch the championship.
There are no pretenders. Each has arrived at this stage of the season deserving of the opportunity. From Aric Almirola and AJ Allmendinger, brushed aside by some before the field was completed, to Keselowski and Johnson.
The formula to get here was simple: win and remain inside the top 30 in points, and you’re in. Win in the Chase, or accumulate the necessary amount of points, and you’ll advance. And advance. And advance. Until only one is crowned champion at Homestead.
In any competition, someone always holds an advantage of one sort or another. Maybe it’s under the hood; maybe it’s the personnel. Sometimes, though, it’s a single decision that ultimately changes the outcome and allows the unexpected to become reality.
You can go through any number of scenarios in an effort to see what lies in store only to discover that numbers don’t drive race cars. Best average finish for the season, fewest results outside the top 20? Best mile-and-a-half program? Restrictor-plate success?
Add them all up and you get a glimpse of a team’s strengths and weaknesses, but you don’t get the entire picture.
You don’t see the guys flying over pit wall. You don’t see the call for two tires instead of four with the race on the line, or the decision to stay out rather than come to pit road.
Statistics provide a glimpse of what has happened. They don’t guarantee what will take place tomorrow, next week or next month.
The human element can’t be overlooked. It played a major role in determining who made this year’s Chase. And it will play just as big of a role in who continues to advance. Until in the end, only one remains.
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