Despite long odds, there’s precedent for finishing strong with outgoing team

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JOLIET, Ill. — Despite finishing seventh in the regular-season standings, Carl Edwards opened with Vegas odds of 100-1 to win the 2014 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. That was better than only Greg Biffle and Ryan Newman (both 200-1) and Aric Almirola and AJ Allmendinger (both 500-1 as part of a ‘field bet’).

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Why Edwards’ odds were that high are a mystery, but the line of questioning directed toward him at the beginning of the Chase has centered on his lame-duck status at Roush-Fenway Racing as he gets ready to bolt to Joe Gibbs Racing in 2015.

Edwards isn’t the only Chase driver in the history of the sport who has gone through this type of transition — in fact, we have recent examples with Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch — but there appears to be at least some level of wonderment as to how he will fare when the Chase gets underway in Sunday’s MyAFibStory.com 400 at Chicagoland Speedway (2 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Edwards got off to a good start on Friday with a third-place finish in opening Sprint Cup Series practice, posting a top speed of 191.022 mph before a mist shrouded the 1.5-mile tri-oval outside of Chicago and ended up canceling Coors Light Pole qualifying. Afterward, he said it’s more of the same at Roush-Fenway Racing.

"Nothing has changed for me," Edwards said. "I am actually shocked by how everything has just stayed the same. … The meetings are the same, the information — I guess I wouldn’t know if they are keeping something from me, but I don’t think they are at all. We haven’t even talked about it other than to say we want to finish this strong and win the championship."

None of the three drivers we mentioned who have made high-profile team switches since 2012 has gone on to win the championship. But their performances as lame-duck drivers haven’t been significantly worse, either.

Kenseth, who made the same RFR-to-JGR transition as Edwards, entered his final Chase run with RFR in 2012 in seventh place, but three straight sub-par finishes dropped him to 12th in the standings. He finished that Chase in seventh. Kenseth put a different spin on the stresses of switching teams.

"I think that once everything is out in the open and the public knows everything, it isn’t hard anymore," Kenseth said. "I think before that, it is. The hardest part for me was to go tell Robbie (Reiser, VP of competition) … even though he understood and still understands, it was sort of hard but we were friends so he totally got it."

Kenseth went on to enjoy success in his first year with JGR, finishing second to Jimmie Johnson in last season’s Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup and winning a league-high seven races. So one could say the transition went about as well as it could have for him.

Kurt Busch, who left Furniture Row Racing after the 2013 season and joined Stewart-Haas Racing as its fourth car, entered last season’s Chase in eighth but finished 10th. He entered this Chase 10th. And as far as distractions are concerned he’s not buying them as a reason Edwards should do poorly.

"The Chase, it seems like it’s always easy to go there and block out all of the outside distractions," Busch said. "When you’re intensely focused to win a championship and run through this Chase, that Friday, Saturday, Sunday is your time to focus, and seems like it’s easier to block out what’s going on."

Kenseth echoed Busch’s sentiment, saying, "I think once it gets going, you’re all in it together. You’re all fulfilling your commitments. Carl is fulfilling everything he agreed to do, and I’m sure his race team is going to do the same thing. They’re going to go out there and be competitive and try to figure out how to win the championship."

Harvick, who entered last year’s Chase in fourth with Richard Childress Racing and finished third and enters this year’s Chase sixth, said the key for Edwards will be going out on a high note at RFR.

"I know to Roush it doesn’t seem like a win-win, but in Carl’s situation, in my opinion it’s a win-win," Harvick said. "You’re going to get the most out of your current situation because as a driver you don’t want to let them down and they want to end well and go out on a good note with you. And obviously the future is bright.

"Knowing that you have something fresh and something new to look forward to is very rejuvenating after you’ve been in one spot for a very long time. I know it was for me and it seemed like it was for Matt as well."

But for Edwards it’s business as usual for now. Already, at least one Vegas outlet has dropped Edwards to 40-1, so the odds are starting to stack up more in his favor. And we’ll see if that initial 100-1 was way off base in the end.

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Pressure ramps up as Nationwide Series title race heats up

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His performance earlier this year at Chicagoland Speedway was so poor that Regan Smith said it served as a "wake-up call" to the entire No. 7 team.
 
He hopes Saturday’s second NASCAR Nationwide Series race at the 1.5-mile track serves as another wake-up call, but of a different variety. Smith anticipates the message this time around is that, yes, this group is still very much in contention to win the 2014 series championship.

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"We struggled all weekend long in the summer when we were here," Smith said Friday morning, referencing the July 19 event in which he qualified 15th and finished 16th. "I think since I’ve been with JR Motorsports, it’s been pretty brutal every time we’ve come to Chicago. This is a race we’ve highlighted on the schedule to either hold serve on points or try to gain a few."
 
By possibly gaining a few points — this week or in the next two — Smith hopes to put 18-year-old series points leader Chase Elliott in a position with which he is unfamiliar: Being hotly pursued in a national series title race.
 
Elliott has been remarkably consistent this year, and the headiness of being in control of the Nationwide Series championship race the same year he graduated high school hasn’t affected the rookie. Will it, if the points get tighter?
 
We have no way of knowing. And that’s kind of the point, Smith says.
 
"We don’t know if (Elliott) has any weak points," Smith said. "It’s going to be our job to put pressure on him and to see if he does, to see if he cracks any. Those cars have had speed all year long, and that hasn’t changed, so I don’t think we can say, ‘Oh he’s going to run 15th.’ It’s probably not realistic to look and think that way. That being said, we’re going to have to do things to put pressure on him and maybe see if something happens."
 
Making a big charge this particular weekend may be difficult for a couple of reasons, and not just because Smith finished 17th on the speed chart to Elliott’s seventh in Friday’s first — and due to rain, only — practice.
 
Elliott, who leads Smith by 19 points in the standings with eight races remaining, won at Chicagoland earlier this year. So this is a track where the three-time 2014 winner is strong, and his JR Motorsports teammate is not so strong.
 
Smith also lost ground over the past month, despite notching finishes of second, fifth, sixth and sixth in the past four races. His deficit to Elliott increased from 10 points to 19 during that time period, because while Smith notched four top-sixes, Elliott recorded four top-fives.
 
"As I said, though, the pressure is going to ramp up as this thing gets closer and closer to the end," Smith said. "I think if we can close it down to nine or 10 points, that would help the pressure ramp up a little bit quicker as we close in on the end of the season. We’ve seen a lot of things happen over the past two years."
 
To Smith’s point, in both 2012 and 2013 the series points leader entering the Chicagoland race has lost the points lead and eventually finished second in the final standings.
 
The ultimate goal for the No. 7 team is to extend that trend from two years to three years. And it likely won’t come all at once, but there is a shortcut of sorts for cutting into the lead the most quickly.
 
"I don’t think winning’s gonna hurt," Smith quipped. "That’s probably the easiest way to close a bunch of points quick is picking up those bonus points."

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With pair of wild-card tracks, Contender Round looms large

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JOLIET, Ill. — Some drivers plan to take the 10-race Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup on a race-by-race basis. Others will go round-by-round, from the Challenger Round all the way to the Championship Round in the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

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Sunday’s MyAFibStory400.com (2 p.m. ET, ESPN) at Chicagoland Speedway serves as the opening segment to the postseason, no matter which view you take. It’s the start of the Challenger Round and also the start of the Chase itself.

Even going one unit at time, though, drivers know what lies directly ahead. The Contender Round looms like a dark, jagged mountain at the end of a relatively peaceful path.

"That Contender Round scares the (expletive) out of me," Brad Keselowski said.

He isn’t alone. Multiple drivers noted the second three-race round on the Chase Grid as the most troubling of the postseason.

The Contender Round consists of races four, five and six in the Chase. It starts with 1.5-mile Kansas Speedway, which has filled several drivers with consternation since its repave, then hits 1.5-mile Charlotte Motor Speedway and ends with the monstrous 2.66-mile Talladega Superspeedway

"We’ve seen that Kansas and Talladega can be wreck-fests, especially the past two years," Keselowski said. "It’s not going to be easy. It’s a bracket that is going to demand survival. The only way you can really feel comfortable with that bracket is if you go to Charlotte and win the race."

Keselowski is the defending Bank of America 500 winner, but his concern is so high that Team Penske spent one of its four offseason tests at the North Carolina track (they plan to also test at Martinsville, Texas and Homestead).

By contrast, the Eliminator Round — which consists of races at Martinsville, Texas and Phoenix and follows the Contender Round — is one in which several Chase drivers feel the most confident.

Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick joined Denny Hamlin with that thought. Of course, they have to get there first. 

"Talladega, that race is one we’re specifically worried for," Johnson said. "When we look at the next group, that’s one that I’m really excited for and I think it sets us up well for Homestead." 

Hamlin took it a step further.

"We’ve really struggled at Kansas since they repaved the track," the JGR driver said. "I think Kansas is as big a wild-card race as Talladega. That round will be our biggest obstacle to get around. I believe that this Chase, with Phoenix and Martinsville in the same (round), it really does play out well for us. We’ll just see if we have what it takes to get there still in contention." 

If not, Hamlin won’t be the only one feeling the sting.

"I think that bracket is really going to break some hearts," Keselowski said.

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Ontario County DA’s office expected to make statement next week

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The investigation into the death of Kevin Ward Jr. has been completed, the Ontario County (New York) Office of the Sheriff announced on Thursday afternoon in a statement.

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The statement from Philip C. Povero, Sheriff of Ontario County, reads in full:

"The Ontario County Office of Sheriff has completed its investigation into the death of Kevin A. Ward, Jr., which occurred August 9, 2014, at the Canandaigua, New York, Motorsports Park. The entire thorough investigation, including a forensic video enhancement recently received from the New York State Police Laboratory in Albany, has been submitted to the Office of the Ontario County District for review. The District Attorney’s Office, which has been meeting throughout the investigative process with members of the Sheriff’s Office, will make a statement late next week advising what action will be taken regarding the investigation."

As Tony Stewart made his return at Atlanta two weeks ago, Povero issued a statement saying that the investigation would continue for at least two more weeks. The investigation has concluded in just under that timetable.

After not participating in the three races immediately following the death of Ward, Stewart has competed in the past two Sprint Cup Series events at Atlanta and Richmond.

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Drivers take to Twitter to offer remembrances and more

Today, the NASCAR community remembers everyone affected by the tragic events on September 11, 2001. Drivers and teams shared their support for 9/11 victims and their families, as well as those who continue to serve and protect our nation: 

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ThorSport veteran is the only driver to appear in the top-five of the standings all season

In a season filled with high-octane racing highlighted by photo-finishes (including the second-closest road course finish in NASCAR national series history, at Canadian Tire Motorsport Park), there has been one constant on the NASCAR Camping World Truck SeriesJohnny Sauter

The 36-year-old Wisconsin native currently ranks first in the series with a seven-point lead over teammate Matt Crafton and remains the only driver to appear in the top-five of the standings all season.

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Don’t count on Sauter losing the top spot any time soon.  Boasting a combined average finish of 8.8 at the remaining eight tracks, his chances of taking home his first NCWTS title are strong.

The next obstacle standing in Sauter’s way on his quest for his first Truck Series championship is Chicagoland Speedway, which hosts the Lucas Oil 225 on Friday night (8:30 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1). 

"Things have been touch and go for us there in the trucks, but we’ve been quick there in the past and our stuff is usually pretty good on the intermediate tracks,” said Sauter of the 1.5-mile course located in Joliet, Illinois. "I’ve liked the track from the first time I got on it and I won my first Nationwide Series race there in 2002, so I’m looking forward to getting back there this weekend."

Sauter is one of three drivers to have four top-10 finishes in the five NCWTS races previously held at Chicagoland Speedway (Kyle Busch and Crafton are the others). He has registered fifth- and eighth-place finishes since winning at Michigan to take the points lead.

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Points leader, series’ most recent winner share leaderboard honors

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Johnny Sauter and Ryan Blaney topped the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series leaderboard in a pair of practices Thursday afternoon at Chicagoland Speedway.

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Blaney, driving the Brad Keselowski Racing No. 29 Ford, set a fast lap of 175.234 mph on the 1.5-mile track in the opening hourlong practice. The 20-year-old driver will be aiming to make it two straight wins in Friday night’s Lucas Oil 225 (8:30 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1) on the heels of his thrilling victory two weeks ago at Canadian Tire Motorsport Park.

Jeb Burton, in the ThorSport Racing No. 13 Toyota, was second-best in the first session at 175.046 mph. NASCAR Next driver Erik Jones — practicing in place of team owner Kyle Busch — was third-fastest at 174.938 mph, just ahead of Kyle Busch Motorsports teammate Darrell Wallace Jr. (174.870) in fourth. Sauter, the series’ points leader in the No. 98 ThorSport entry, completed the top five.

In the 90-minute final practice, Sauter rose to the top of the speed chart on the last of the 29 laps he turned, clocking in at 176.540 mph. Brennan Newberry, running a part-time schedule this season, was second-fastest at 175.518 mph in the NTS Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet. Burton, former series champion Austin Dillon and Wallace rounded out the top five.

Defending series champion Matt Crafton was 11th-fastest in the early session and seventh-fastest in final practice of the 27 drivers to participate in both sessions.

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Jimmie Johnson discusses his mid-race pit crew change in 2010

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MORE: Harvick, Stewart swap pit crews

CHICAGO — Kevin Harvick says the members of his pit crew that were switched to finish out the season with teammate and Stewart-Haas Racing co-owner Tony Stewart will get better with time.

But with NASCAR’s Chase for the Sprint Cup beginning this weekend at Chicagoland Speedway, time wasn’t on Harvick’s, or the team’s side.

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SHR officials announced earlier this week that it had made personnel moves between two of its four NASCAR Sprint Cup Series outfits, swapping the majority of over-the-wall crewmen between Harvick’s No. 4 and Stewart’s No. 14 teams. 

Harvick, despite winning twice this season and finishing second five times, had said repeatedly that problems on pit road would have to be addressed if the team hoped to contend for a championship. 

When he was beaten off pit road repeatedly last week at Richmond (Va.) International Raceway, those comments took on an added urgency. 

"They do perform well," Harvick said of his now former crew Thursday during media day in downtown Chicago. "They just have to work on the consistency, and a lot of that consistency will come with time. 

"The 14 group has been fortunate to be together for a long time and have been through the championship stuff. My guys are going to do great, they just need time to go through all the situations that all these pit crews that have been together for a long time have seen … pit hoses getting stepped on and tires get hung and lug nuts fall off."

Harvick and teammate Kurt Busch are among the 16 drivers in this year’s Chase field. Stewart and Danica Patrick did not earn one of the positions.

"I think everybody talked about it and felt like this was the right thing to do for now with the opportunity that we have," Harvick said. "Give those guys a little time to hopefully get Tony to Victory Lane and be competitive, (still) be in the same environment and do all the same things."

Harvick, who joined SHR following the 2013 season, is still searching for his first Sprint Cup title. He has finished a career-best third three times (2010, ’11 and ’13).

Changing personnel late in the season isn’t unheard of — six-time champion Jimmie Johnson got a different crew in the middle of a race at Texas Motor Speedway during the 2010 Chase, en route to his fifth consecutive championship.

"It’s tough and it really tests the strength of the team and really the team dynamic," Johnson said. "We stressed to one another that we’re one team, one family. That’s the biggest test — if you all buy in and if you all believe.

"We proved it (could) be done, so I’m not saying that it can’t, but it will test all those members to the core. And only time will tell how it will play out." 

Harvick said he understands that there might be some hard feelings but given time, he hopes those affected by the move understand what the organization is trying to accomplish.

"It won’t be immediately understood," he said, "but I think you have to look at both sides of it, understand where we are and what you have to do.

"It was a tough decision for everybody to make; you just have to do what you think is right and go forward."

The new members of Harvick’s pit crew are tire changers Ira Jo Hussey and Daniel Smith, tire carriers Todd Drakulich and Mike Morneau as well as jackman Mike Casto. 

Sunday’s MyAFibStory.com 400 (ESPN, 2 p.m. ET) kicks off this year’s 10-race Chase. 

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2014 format means teams ‘go fast, or go home’

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Brad Keselowski
has won the most races and enters this year’s Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup with the points lead.
 
But does that mean the Team Penske driver and 2012 champion is the most likely to win it all for a second time in three years?
 
Does anyone discount the chances of Jimmie Johnson? The winner of more Chase races (24) and championships (six) than anyone in the field, Johnson is the only driver to appear in every Chase he’s attempted, regardless of format.
 
With the quest for a record-tying seventh championship beginning in earnest this weekend, what are the chances we won’t see the Hendrick Motorsports driver among the final four in Homestead?
 
Or Jeff Gordon, looking more and more like the driver who had four titles in his pocket before his 30th birthday?

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Kevin Harvick, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Joey Logano? Each has won multiple races this year. And, at times, each has looked invincible.
 
What about Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle and Ryan Newman, in the Chase yet still looking for that first win of the season? The first lap hasn’t been completed and those three already find themselves 12 points down to the leader. Will we see an early exit for one or more, or is the consistency that carried them into the 10-race playoff more beneficial than most realize?
 
It’s a healthy mix of former champions, veterans still searching for that first title and a couple of newcomers making their Chase debuts, and it adds up to a 16-team field, the largest since the championship-determining format was first rolled out in 2004.
 
But a little more than a month from now, when the Challenger Round gives way to the Contender Round, four of them will be gone.
 
From the beginning, the Chase has always included teams that were "eliminated" from title contention. Have a bad couple of races to start the Chase, and your group can begin preparing for next year.
 
But the new format brings finality to the process. Go fast or go home.
 
There are favorites and there are underdogs as the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series rolls into Chicago this weekend for the MyAFibStory.com 400 (ESPN, Sunday at 2 p.m. ET). It’s the fourth time the 1.5-mile track has hosted the kickoff to the Chase, and twice the race winner has gone on to clinch the championship.
 
There are no pretenders. Each has arrived at this stage of the season deserving of the opportunity. From Aric Almirola and AJ Allmendinger, brushed aside by some before the field was completed, to Keselowski and Johnson.
 
The formula to get here was simple: win and remain inside the top 30 in points, and you’re in. Win in the Chase, or accumulate the necessary amount of points, and you’ll advance. And advance. And advance. Until only one is crowned champion at Homestead.
 
In any competition, someone always holds an advantage of one sort or another. Maybe it’s under the hood; maybe it’s the personnel. Sometimes, though, it’s a single decision that ultimately changes the outcome and allows the unexpected to become reality.
 
You can go through any number of scenarios in an effort to see what lies in store only to discover that numbers don’t drive race cars. Best average finish for the season, fewest results outside the top 20? Best mile-and-a-half program? Restrictor-plate success?
 
Add them all up and you get a glimpse of a team’s strengths and weaknesses, but you don’t get the entire picture.
 
You don’t see the guys flying over pit wall. You don’t see the call for two tires instead of four with the race on the line, or the decision to stay out rather than come to pit road.
 
Statistics provide a glimpse of what has happened. They don’t guarantee what will take place tomorrow, next week or next month.
 
The human element can’t be overlooked. It played a major role in determining who made this year’s Chase. And it will play just as big of a role in who continues to advance. Until in the end, only one remains.

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