Bowyer is the highest-ranked driver on the outside of the Chase looking in, with rookie phenom Kyle Larson on his heels, just one point behind. Both rank behind Ryan Newman and Greg Biffle, who have a provisional grasp on the final two berths. Newman sits in a more advantageous place, 19 points ahead of Biffle, and only serious misfortune would release his hold on a Chase spot.

While Newman said he knows that anything could happen, and usually does at a track known for producing late-race fireworks, he’s measuring his Chase fate against the balance of the regular season.

"I still say that the last 25 races, that intensity, that emotional, mental and physical level that you have to have is no different then than it is now," said Newman, who notched his only Richmond victory in 2003. "And you have the potential for things to fall apart, don’t get me wrong, but things have fallen apart in the last 25 and you can’t pinpoint it on the one thing that happens Saturday night here in Richmond. So, you can live in the moment, but it really takes a combination of 26 events to get to this point. And what happens tomorrow night happens tomorrow night. And it can be good or it can be bad."

Biffle’s claim to the last of 16 postseason spots sits on shakier ground than Newman’s, especially at a track where he’s never won. And while he’s bracing for the potential bruising of fenders and feelings alike in Saturday’s Federated Auto Parts 400 (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC), he said he’s not sure if the driver code of conduct — unwritten or not — changes in the late going Saturday night with the stakes that much higher.

"Yeah, I don’t know. You still have to answer to your sponsor and your team and all the fans and everything else if you just start playing demolition derby, I guess, if you start knocking cars out of the way from sixth up to the lead," Biffle said. "I wouldn’t say that is acceptable but people are going to race hard for the win. … You’ll try to do the bump and run or try to move a guy out of the way but you still have to keep it within reason."

At times, reason has gone out the window in the last two Richmond races. Brad Keselowski and Matt Kenseth clanged fenders and had pointed words for each other after a late-race scrap last April, but the chain of events in this race last September altered the landscape of the sport forever, with Bowyer at the center of the race-manipulation scandal that resulted in landmark penalties for his Michael Waltrip Racing team.

Bowyer typically doesn’t shy from many conversations, but he was practically mum on the subject two days before its one-year anniversary. With the memory of Race No. 26 from last season rekindled, could this year’s edition play out any differently?

"I think it’s a concern. I would be naive if I said it wasn’t a concern," Newman said, "but I think after what happened last year, the magnifying glasses are getting a little bit tighter than they used to be and that we’ll have a good race and that it would be good for our sport to not have what happened last year in any form or fashion happen this year, and have a great race here because it is a great race track."

In any situation, a win would trump all, and 19 drivers have a mathematical shot to take the guesswork out of all the points scenarios — and potentially foil Newman, Biffle and the rest — with a Hail Mary victory to clinch a playoff berth. In that case, drivers may not make a blatantly untoward move, but the gloves may indeed come off — both Saturday night and at each elimination phase in the 10-race Chase.

"I expect some pretty ruthless racing if a guy has an opportunity," said Carl Edwards, the defending race winner and a two-time victor this season. "And I think you’re going to see that not just tonight, but at the third race of the Chase, the sixth race, the ninth race and definitely at Homestead. NASCAR has done a good job of putting us in a position here where a lot can depend on one pass, one lap, one restart — everything can depend on that. For us as drivers, sometimes that’s frustrating but it’ll definitely create some excitement."

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