Analysis: Larson failed to lead a single lap at Martinsville, his self-admitted likely “best track,” which is honestly quite surprising because he was the best restarter and No. 2 passer on the day en route to his fourth top five in the past six races. The driver with the No. 1 speed and No. 3 defense of 2025 now goes to another of his strong venues at Darlington, where he led 263 laps the last time out as he collected his seventh top five in 14 track starts.

Analysis: Bell was maybe the only guy who had anything to compete with Hamlin’s No. 11 on Sunday — and he still finished 4.617 seconds behind his teammate as the race’s runner-up, Bell’s fourth top-two finish in the last six races. The way he’s running, he can’t be ruled out anywhere at the moment, but historically, Darlington is a weaker track for him with just three top 10s in 11 starts.

Analysis: Byron failed to lead a lap for the first time all year in Sunday’s race at Martinsville, which felt like a rather large swing-and-miss for he and crew chief Rudy Fugle. Considering he’s already locked into the playoffs and Martinsville remains the elimination race ahead of the Championship 4, it’s possible there was some setup experimenting going on with the No. 24, but the No. 1 defender of 2025 will look to once again flex his muscle and collect his second Darlington win this weekend.

Analysis: On days when a driver is racing at one of his best tracks (bonus points if it’s also his home track) with the No. 1 speed and pit crew for the race, you’re going to see a lot of performances like Hamlin’s Martinsville masterclass. He’s almost never not in the mix for the win at Darlington, too, and back-to-back wins from the series’ oldest full-timer would be quite a statement. And quite possible.

Analysis: Elliott still feels like he’s on the verge of a major breakthrough, and Martinsville’s best passer might just pass a lot of cars this weekend, too. Though he’s only led in three of his 16 Darlington starts (and not since 2020), the gut-check here says that trend ends on Sunday, and he’ll be in contention for the Throwback Weekend victory.

Analysis: Though he’s won there before, Bowman is certainly the weakest Hendrick driver at Martinsville, and a promising start (Stage 1 runner-up) finished in the doldrums (P27). The 2020 Darlington spring race runner-up ranks last among Hendrick drivers at this track, too, but maybe some of that Jimmie Johnson throwback magic will work its way into the No. 48.

Analysis: We’re officially past the “this guy ran good in the first handful of races … is there something here, or is this a fluke?” part of the season and now firmly into “yep, there’s something here” territory as Wallace backs up his hot 2025 start weekly. He’s likely to keep it rolling at Darlington, too, where he’s the most recent pole winner and owns an 8.8 average finish in the past five races.

Analysis: All things considered, a P14 with another driver pointing a finger in his face after the race is better than how most of Reddick’s Martinsville starts tend to go, so he’ll be happy to get outta there and move on to Darlington. It feels like an anomaly that he has yet to win at the “Lady in Black,” and after leading 174 laps in this race last year, he lines up as one of the favorites.

Analysis: Logano really had to grind over that final run to make sure he landed in the top 10 despite looking strong all race, but he did, and he finally has that monkey off his back. He’s also now back in the top 10 in the standings, and the 2022 Darlington spring race winner should be able to battle for his first 2025 win Sunday, too.

Analysis: Not quite a banner day for the driver who’s been Mr. Martinsville lately, but it’s tough to shine with the 29th-best pit crew on the day … which is perhaps worth stashing away and wondering if that’ll impact things come November. There’s no real concern here overall (it is literally April 1), but Blaney remains on track for a career-worst average finish (20.0), and it’s no slam dunk he whittles that down at Darlington, where he averages just a 19.6 finish.

Analysis: Boy, we haven’t seen Buescher that mad since, well, last year’s spring race at Darlington. So, with plenty of motivation stemming from a Martinsville run-in with Noah Gragson and perhaps still thinking about last year’s South Carolina beef with Tyler Reddick, No. 17 feels like a real dark horse (no pun intended) for the win this weekend.

Analysis: It’s clear Martinsville is going to be a strong track for Briscoe in his career, and even more so now that he’s with Joe Gibbs Racing, after another impressive run there among the big dogs. You can say the same for him and Darlington, where he enters as the most recent winner amid a pair of strong top-five finishes there last year.

Analysis: Chastain has had an interesting start so far, looking great at times but still kind of wading in that middle ground. Turns out, he might be doing more with less, proving his driver talent by having the 14th-best speed and 19th-best pit crew of 2025 so far, but being third-best in passing and restarts. If the performance in his No. 1 picks up on pit road and in the engineering department, he could find his way to multiple wins.

Analysis: Speaking of doing more with less, after another exceptional run, it sure looks like that’s what Preece has been doing the past few years now that we’re seeing what he’s capable of in equipment that can compete for wins more weeks than not. We know he can look good on short tracks, though … but what about Darlington, where he’s yet to earn a top 10 in 10 starts? We’ll see.

Analysis: No, McDowell didn’t collect his first Martinsville top 10 in his 29th try, but a 25-point, 12th-place finish is still a solid day. The fresh Spire Motorsports driver continues to blossom in his new digs and now gets a crack at a track where he landed a pair of top-seven runs as recently as 2022.

 

Analysis: Berry’s drop is unfortunate because we never quite got to see what he could do on Sunday as his No. 21 Ford was plagued with mechanical issues almost from the jump. There’s a good chance he would’ve been fast, and there’s a good chance last year’s third-place finisher in the Darlington spring race is a factor again this weekend.

Analysis: On the positive side, Busch’s finishes and points are trending in the right direction again, but overall, there’s some dwindling optimism here that the early-season gains RCR seemed to have are here to stay. Things may start to unravel a bit further if the team is not competitive again this weekend at Darlington, where Busch was the runner-up in the most recent race.

Analysis: Nemechek had a bead going on a solid run when he landed top five in Stage 1 at Martinsville, but really sank the rest of the race and dropped down to 25th for the finish. Darlington is such an odd track for him, history-wise, as he collected a top 10 there as a rookie in 2020 but hasn’t come close to a solid finish since, landing no better than 25th.

Analysis: Stenhouse’s 20th-place Martinsville run was nothing to write home about, but it did keep him afloat in the top 20 in the standings for now, but danger lies ahead. With just a single top 10 and nary a lap led in his 18 Darlington starts dating back to 2013, he’ll need everything to go right on Sunday to sniff a solid finish.

Analysis: The finish wasn’t there, but Allmendinger showed why he’s more than capable at Martinsville, leaning on his P3 in Stage 1 to prop up his 22 points on the day. He was 25th in speed but sixth in defense, and those skills will come in handy again at Darlington, where his last start came in 2023 and he’s never finished in the top 10.