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Thompson Speedway Motorsports Park

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  • Starting lineup
Position Car No. Driver
1 16 Ron Silk
2 51 Justin Bonsignore
3 1 Patrick Emerling
4 64 Austin Beers
5 46 Craig Lutz
6 3 Tyler Rypkema
7 22 Kyle Bonsignore
8 56 Trevor Catalano *
9 54 Tommy Catalano
10 60 Matt Hirschman
11 18 Ken Heagy
12 36 Dave Sapienza
13 84 Tyler Catalano *
14 4 Tim Connolly
15 00 Tyler Barry *
16 82 Woody Pitkat
17 89 Matt Swanson
18 44 Chase Dowling
19 17 Anthony Nocella
20 15 Joey Cipriano, III *
21 10 Bob Reis *
22 28 Mike Marshall *

 

Editor’s note: Projected finish has been updated after Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions. Chase Elliott replaces Kyle Larson as the projected winner.

Talladega once again delivered on its reputation for chaos, shaking up the playoff standings and producing a thriller. Even amongst all the mayhem, we can start to get a sense of who the biggest threats are to vie for a title in Phoenix.

Sunday’s Bank of America Roval 400 at the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course (2 p.m. ET, NBC, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) is no cakewalk, especially with a new track reconfiguration that aims to stir up more postseason drama.

RELATED: Set your Fantasy Live lineup | Weekend schedule

William Byron has already locked into the Round of 8 on points. He’s virtually steered clear of playoff issues so far, with only one wreck and a lengthy pit stop for adjustments at Watkins Glen, so that’s one in and seven more to go. Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson are two excellent road-course racers, setting themselves up nicely to lock in on points no matter the outcome, as they each sit plus-50 above the elimination line. Byron, Bell and Larson were three-fourths of last year’s Championship 4 and each of them own wins at the final three tracks (Homestead-Miami, Martinsville and Phoenix).

However, it’s from Denny Hamlin on down in the standings you can argue that the chance to advance is still wide open. The Roval is another wild-card race where anything can happen at any moment. Compared to other road courses, the Roval has averaged more lead changes (12), race cautions (7.8) and final stage cautions (4.3) since its debut in 2018. Not to mention nine or more playoff drivers have encountered various problems in four of the last six Roval races.

Who knows who will rise and fall Sunday, but after six races the playoff puzzle will finally start to take shape.

DRIVERS TO WATCH

ALEX BOWMAN: Bowman continues to lead drivers with the most points scored in the postseason (189) and now he goes to one of his best tracks. At the Roval, Bowman has the best average finish with at least four starts (6.4), scored the sixth-most points there in only five races (165) and he’s scored the most points on road courses this year (146).

CHASE ELLIOTT: The driver of the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet is a two-time Roval winner and will start seventh on Sunday. He is the active leader in road-course wins with seven, so even though he has not been dominant lately on road courses, it’s hard to count him out from getting an all-important win this time.

TYLER REDDICK: Pressure is mounting for the Regular Season Champion, who has finished 20th or worse in the last four races. The Charlotte circuit is in his wheelhouse, though, with top-10 finishes in the last three Roval races and an average finish of seventh. He’s also statically been the second-strongest playoff driver on road courses this season.

RYAN BLANEY: The reigning champ has a Roval win. However, his finishes since then have slipped out of the top 10 in the Next Gen era. Still, he’s scored the most points on the Roval (220) but could find trouble if others rise.

JOEY LOGANO: Speaking of drivers rising, Logano has five top 10s on the Roval, tied with Bowman. A top-10 finish — or win — may just be enough to point his way into the next round. The issue? Logano has a 17.5 average finish on road courses this year.

AJ ALLMENDINGER/SVG: The possibility of non-playoff drivers sweeping this round is not out of the question. Allmendinger kept playoff drivers at bay in last year’s race en route to an upset win and he’s a perfect four-for-four on the Roval in the Xfinity Series. If he can’t get it done, there’s a good chance his teammate can. Van Gisbergen opens as the favorite to win and he was second at Watkins Glen and was about half a lap from playing spoiler until Chris Buescher muscled his way to Victory Lane.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE BANK OF AMERICA ROVAL 400

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results. 

FinishCar NumberDriver
19Chase Elliott
245Tyler Reddick
35Kyle Larson
420Christopher Bell
524William Byron
654Ty Gibbs
71Ross Chastain
817Chris Buescher
916AJ Allmendinger
1034Michael McDowell
1148Alex Bowman
128Kyle Busch
1313Shane van Gisbergen
1412Ryan Blaney
1522Joey Logano
1699Daniel Suárez
1719Martin Truex Jr.
1811Denny Hamlin
192Austin Cindric
2023Bubba Wallace
2177Carson Hocevar
2271Zane Smith
236Brad Keselowski
2414Chase Briscoe
253Austin Dillon
2638Todd Gilliland
2751Corey LaJoie
2841Ryan Preece
2947Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
3010Noah Gragson
317Justin Haley
3243Erik Jones
3331Daniel Hemric
3421Harrison Burton
3542John Hunter Nemechek
3615Kaz Grala
374Josh Berry
3866Josh Bilicki

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. — Longtime The Associated Press reporter Mike Harris was named recipient of the 2025 Squier-Hall Award for NASCAR Media Excellence, becoming the 13th winner of the prestigious award.  

Harris joined the AP in 1969 and became lead motorsports reporter in 1980, a role he held until retirement in July 2009.   

“Mike Harris was a trusted voice inside the NASCAR garage for decades,” said Jim France, NASCAR chairman and CEO. “Mike’s nationwide reach coincided with NASCAR’s enormous popularity growth, and his coverage and feature stories for the world’s largest news-gathering organization brought NASCAR and our drivers into the homes of millions of fans across the country. Mike is a true professional, a gentleman and a legend in his field.” 

Harris began his full-time journalism career in 1967 with The Rockford Morning Star and Register-Republic before joining the AP Chicago Bureau in February 1969. He covered a variety of sports and served as Indiana Sports Editor before finding his home in motorsports. 

Harris is the 1985 recipient of the American Motorsports Media Award of Excellence (previously called the Henry T. McLemore Award). In 1987 and 1994 he won the Jim Hunter Writer of the Year Award given by the Eastern Motorsport Press Association.

The Squier-Hall Award is voted upon by a panel of NASCAR and NASCAR Hall of Fame executives, active and retired media members, and former NASCAR competitors and industry leaders. Harris will be honored during NASCAR Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony festivities on Feb. 7, 2025, and featured in an exhibit in the NASCAR Hall of Fame. Tickets to the Induction Weekend events are available at NASCARHall.com. 

The Squier-Hall Award for NASCAR Media Excellence was named after legendary NASCAR media figures Ken Squier and Barney Hall, the first two recipients of the award. 

The other seven nominees for the award were: 

Russ Catlin, one of the best-known early racing writers and historians; editor of Speed Age Magazine.

George Cunningham, long-time beat writer for The Charlotte Observer, Atlanta Constitution and NASCAR Scene; is the namesake for the annual NMPA award for Excellence in Writing.  

Jim Foster, helped create the Motor Racing Network (MRN) after 15 years covering NASCAR as a newspaper reporter. 

Bob Montgomery, co-founder and announcer for the Universal Racing Network.

Bob Moore, spent more than 20 years as a NASCAR beat writer including stints with the Daytona Beach News-Journal and The Charlotte Observer.

Hank Schoolfield, a jack of all trades bringing NASCAR racing to rans across the Southeast through newspapers, magazines and radio.

Deb Williams, the first woman to receive the American Motorsports Media Award of Excellence. 

Following feedback from drivers and a review of data, NASCAR and Speedway Motorsports replaced the blue rumble strips in Turn 16 prior to Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs race at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval.

On Saturday night following the NASCAR Xfinity Series race, the blue, 4-inch tall rumble strips were replaced with red-and-white stripes that measure 2.25 inches tall, shortened to lessen the violence of impacts over the curbs entering the frontstretch chicane. The new strips were painted blue, and the rules will not change for today’s Round of 12 elimination race.

MORE: Starting lineup | Sunday’s schedule

After Saturday’s practice for the Bank of America Roval 400, drivers vocalized concerns of how abrupt the curbing felt from behind the wheel. Sections of the track’s layout were reconfigured ahead of this year’s running of the road-course-oval hybrid, including the frontstretch chicane.

“Running over that feels like you get a concussion every lap, basically, if you hit them,” 2017 Cup champion Martin Truex Jr. said. “So yeah, not much fun.”

Kyle Busch, a two-time series champion, affirmed Truex’s assessment, noting comparisons to and contrasts from the previous configuration of the Watkins Glen International “Bus Stop” chicane. Prior to the 2024 season, that section of curbing caused jarring impacts lap after lap. Changes were made ahead of September’s race following the collection of mouthpiece data from drivers.

“Here, I think it’s a sharper, faster hit,” Busch said Saturday. “But it’s one versus the old Bus Stop at Watkins Glen would be three of them going through there, you know what I mean. It’s more violent here.”

Policing of the rules specific to track limits note in part:

  • Vehicles must run on the full course at all times.
  • Going straight at the chicane(s) may result in a stop-and-go penalty.
  • In the closing laps of the race, if there is not enough time to assess a pass-through penalty, a post-race time penalty of 30 seconds will be assessed to the vehicle’s total time.

CONCORD, N.C. — Drama, relief and heartbreak. All three hit an apex in the closing laps of Saturday’s NASCAR Xfinity Series Round of 12 elimination race at the Charlotte Roval.

When the checkered flag waved after a wild 72 laps around the 2.32-mile road course, Justin Allgaier found himself on the right side of the elimination line by just four points.

RELATED: Race results | At-track photos

“We had a plan. We executed the plan to perfection today,” Allgaier said in relief after the race. “And really, that’s all you can ask for. And so for me, having that plan, I had 90 million things running through my head today. Honestly, the biggest one was the emotions of how I was going to tell my kids that we didn’t make the next round of the playoffs, right? Like that was really what I was the most worried about and to come out of here the way that we did, and to execute. I mean the last six weeks have been brutal. The thing that I hate about the playoffs, but also the thing that I love about the playoffs is that’s gone … that checkmark’s gone and we go into the next round and we reset on points and life’s good again.”

The last five weeks for Allgaier have arguably been the worst stretch of the No. 7 JR Motorsports driver’s lengthy and successful Xfinity Series career.

He entered Saturday’s race coming off finishes of 30th, 36th and 25th to find himself 18 points below the elimination line entering Saturday.

After collecting a healthy 18 points in the first two stages, winning the latter of the two segments, Allgaier needed a top-10 result to advance his way to the Round of 8 on points and did just that with a gutsy seventh-place finish.

“This team has such a never-give-up attitude,” Allgaier said. “The effort and time that’s gone in this week, last week. I mean we’ve wrecked six or seven race cars in the last seven weeks and have nothing to show for it, and they’ve never quit. They’ve kept pushing and kept digging. Today was just a testament of that. I got a little emotional on the radio when I thought the race was over the first time because you build all this up in your head and you get to that point and you’re not really sure how it’s gonna play out. When I thought it played out the way we wanted it to, it was great. Then we were going to have to have overtime. I was really nervous, but it worked out even better because obviously that put Sam [Mayer) in.”

allgaier climbs out of his car
Brittney Wilbur | NASCAR Digital Media

Mayer, Allgaier’s teammate and needing a win to advance, found a second life after an overtime restart and the No. 1 JRM wheelman scooted by Parker Kligerman with two laps to go to score his third win and secure a Round of 8 berth.

With Mayer’s win, however, it left the road-course phenom Shane van Gisbergen the first driver out from advancing to the semi-final round.

Van Gisbergen looked to be in prime position to be victorious from the pole but during a caution with 13 laps to go, the No. 97 Chevrolet team chose not to pit and stay out on old tires while most of the playoff field pitted.

Within a few laps of the following restart, van Gisbergen was quickly caught and passed by Kligerman for the lead with eight to go and ultimately settled for a third-place finish, coming up just two points short of Jesse Love for the final transfer spot.

“You can’t just blame it on today,” van Gisbergen told NASCAR.com. “You know, last week hurts and then the guys who were in must-wins executed today. But if we had three good weekends, we would have been okay.”

A rookie in the Xfinity Series, the 35-year-old Kiwi navigated his inaugural NASCAR season with three wins to make the Xfinity Playoffs and touted his learning of ovals as a big takeaway from 2024.

“I think I’ve made really good progression on ovals,” van Gisbergen said. “Better and better. Kansas was my best mile-and-a-half by a long way. Yeah, I think I’m getting a lot better.”

With Allgaier, Sammy Smith and now Mayer, three of the JRM Chevys are still in the hunt for the 2024 Xfinity Series championship and while only one of them could win the driver’s championship in Phoenix, Allgaier has high hopes for the four remaining races, thanks to the points reset heading to Las Vegas Motor Speedway next weekend.

“I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I still believe we could have all three of our Camaros in the final four,” Allgaier said. “Just so proud of this team and the effort, and we’ll definitely sleep a lot better tonight than I’ve been sleeping the last five or six weeks.”

CONCORD, N.C. — Parker Kligerman was inches away from winning his way into the Round of 8 of the NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoffs.

Instead, the yellow flag waved just before Kligerman took the white flag at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval. Had Kligerman crossed the start/finish line after the white flag waved, a caution would have sealed the victory and propelled him into the next round of the postseason. But because he hadn’t yet hit the stripe, what happened next was a restart in NASCAR Overtime in which he was bested by Sam Mayer, who took that checkered flag, trophy and playoff spot instead.

MORE: Race results | At-track photos

The difference between the caution lights’ illumination and Kligerman’s No. 48 Chevrolet crossing the start/finish line was 0.05 seconds, per timestamps provided by NASCAR. Ultimately, Kligerman took the checkered flag in sixth place, 24 points away — or one win shy — of advancing to the Round of 8.

Kligerman has never won in the Xfinity Series. He announced on Sept. 12 — exactly a month ago — that this campaign will be the final season of his full-time racing career. The moment he took to sit atop his window after the race, soaking in the defeat and watching Mayer’s smoke-show celebration, encapsulated those emotions.

“This hurts,” Kligerman said. “I said on the cooldown lap, I want to cry, but I won’t, and it’s gotten close a couple times as I think about it. I just, I’ve really loved doing this, and I’ve been so grateful to have the opportunity to be here and to be at this level and to make a career doing this. And I just love the intensity and the pressure. And I really, really wanted that.

“I just felt like that was a poetic — if I could just do one thing, it would have been winning this damn race in that fashion, holding off some of the best in the world in SVG (Shane van Gisbergen), and AJ (Allmendinger), Sam Mayer, who’s a Roval master now. I thought I was driving at the highest level I’ve ever driven, and I didn’t get it done.”

It wasn’t for lack of effort. Following a restart with 11 laps remaining in regulation, Kligerman stormed from sixth to second on fresh tires, charging to van Gisbergen’s back bumper.

Kligerman completed the pass for the lead just two laps later and began setting sail until Mayer reeled him back. Mayer and Kligerman dueled fiercely but fairly over the final seven green-flag laps of regulation, with each handing the other crossover moves that dazzled, including a Mayer pass for the lead entering the frontstretch chicane that was immediately undone by a Kligerman crossover on the exit of Turn 17.

“Was it a good show?” Kligerman smiled. “Cool.”

Those moments were intense for both, understanding what playoff hopes were on the line.

“I don’t wear a heart-rate monitor anymore or anything, but I’d have to think it might have been the highest I’ve ever had,” Kligerman said.

But the respect between Mayer and Kligerman was evident. While they weren’t afraid to race hard or make contact — a Mayer crossover and slight contact in Turn 7 ultimately led to Mayer’s victory — the two effectively took care of each other’s chances to continue.

“I have so much respect for Parker because he is one of the coolest guys in the garage,” Mayer said. “He’s a really good race-car driver, and he’s driving for a team that the owner, Scott Borchetta, I respect highly. So me in that spot, I’m like, ‘God dang it, really? Am I really gonna be behind the 48 on this last restart?’ and all that kind of stuff because, again, I have so much respect for all those guys that work on the race car and the drive and own it.”

Mayer wasn’t the only driver offering respect to Kligerman after the race. Van Gisbergen was the first to greet him before Aric Almirola and AJ Allmendinger came by to offer support. During Kligerman’s post-race interviews, Austin Hill came to shake Kligerman’s hand as well.

“That’s pretty cool,” Kligerman said. “Especially guys like Aric and AJ have won Cup races, and Austin Hill won a million races, and SVG, who’s best in the world. You know, that means a lot to have your peers’ respect.

“And you know, I don’t think I raced anyone not cleanly today, but I had to be aggressive. They knew that. But I’ve raced these guys over a whole season – and for years, some of them – and that’s just really cool. I mean, Aric, he had some really nice things that was very touching. And I’m very thankful to have had him come up there because I maybe would have reacted differently. But that was really nice of him to say some really kind things.”

Despite coming so close to an ever-elusive Xfinity victory, Kligerman foresees no change in his future plans and insists this will be his final full season.

“It’s over, bud. It’s over, and I’ve been at peace with it,” Kligerman said. “I’ll tell you how peaceful it’s been. I’ve slept so well and I’ve been so calm the last month or so since I made the announcement, I went and got a blood test, and I was like, something’s wrong with me. And turns out I’m as healthy as an ox. It’s just, I guess, turning that switch off in four weeks for the first time in 22 years, I think I’m ready for it.

“But I will say, 10 to go and I’m holding off to the best of the world, I was like, ‘Damn, couple more chances at this (and) I might get more of these.’ But no, it’s time and I’m at peace. But I really want one of these trophies to finish it off.”

CONCORD, N.C. — As Sam Mayer celebrated his drama-filled victory in Saturday’s Drive for the Cure 250 Presented by Blue Cross and Blue Shield of North Carolina at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval, Parker Kligerman watched a replay of the whisker-close circumstance that knocked him out of the NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoffs.

In overtime, Mayer passed Kligerman in Turn 7 of the 2.280-mile, 17-turn circuit and pulled away to claim the victory that propelled him into the Playoffs’ Round of 8.

But Mayer’s win was devastation for Kligerman, who has never won an Xfinity Series race. Kligerman was leading, with the white flag waving, when NASCAR called a caution for Leland Honeyman’s spin into the barrier in Turn 3.

Had the caution call come a fraction of a second later, Kligerman would have been the winner under yellow. The overtime, however, gave Mayer another shot in his No. 1 JR Motorsports Chevrolet — arguably the class of the field — and the 21-year-old from Franklin, Wisconsin took full advantage.

RELATED: Race results | At-track photos

“We were all crossed up getting up in there (Turn 7),” Mayer said of the winning pass. “I was loose getting into (Turn) 6, and I knew that was my only shot if I got a good angle into that corner.

“He blocked the bottom, which was good for me in that it gave me a better angle up off the corner and got this Chevrolet hooked up, and we were gone from there. Now, I get to celebrate.”

Both Mayer and Kligerman needed to win to advance in the playoffs, but it was Mayer who got his third win of the season, his second straight at the Roval and the seventh of his career, beating runner-up AJ Allmendinger to the finish line by 1.474 seconds.

He joins JR Motorsports teammates Sammy Smith and Justin Allgaier in the Round of 8, along with Chandler Smith (fifth), Austin Hill (fourth), defending series champion Cole Custer (13th), Allmendinger and Jesse Love (19th), who earned the final transfer spot by two points over Saturday’s pole winner and third-place finisher Shane van Gisbergen.

Kligerman left Charlotte 12th in the standings, a distant 24 points shy of the Round of 8 after fading to sixth on the final lap.

WATCH: Mayer on thrilling victory | Kligerman discusses finish

“I’ve done this interview from that side,” said Kligerman, who has combined careers of broadcasting and racing — and who will retire from full-time competition at the end of the season. “It’s really tough from this side.

“I teared up when I thought we got it there at the white flag, then the caution comes out, and we had to re-focus … I thought I cut off Turn 7 enough, but he (Mayer) somehow got below me, and then it was on from there.

“It was full contact. Sam didn’t do anything egregious. It was hard racing, but as close as you could be to the line. Now I want to cry — I’m not going to cry, but I really love this game, and it would’ve meant the world.”

For Mayer, it was no cakewalk. On Lap 3, he served a pass-through penalty for jumping the start from the second grid position, and in the late going, Mayer had a problem getting into third gear through the first two corners on the NASCAR oval.

MORE: Xfinity Series standings | Xfinity Series schedule

He persevered, as did Allgaier, who finished seventh after finishing third in Stage 1 and winning Stage 2 — his 15th stage win of the season.

Exiting the playoffs with Kligerman and van Gisbergen were Riley Herbst and Sheldon Creed, victims of a pileup in Turn 17 on Lap 34. Herbst finished 32nd and Creed 35th.

The Xfinity Series will begin the Round of 8 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway next Saturday (7 p.m. ET, The CW, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

NOTE: Post-race inspection in the Xfinity Series garage concluded without issue, confirming Mayer as the race winner. The No. 7 JR Motorsports Chevrolet driven by Justin Allgaier, No. 8 JR Motorsports Chevrolet driven by Sammy Smith, No. 21 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet driven by Austin Hill and No. 81 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota driven by Chandler Smith all had one unsecured lug nut, which will result in a monetary fine.

See where your favorite NASCAR Cup Series driver will pit for the Bank of America ROVAL 400 at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval on Sunday (2 p.m. ET, NBC, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).

RELATED: Starting lineup | Weekend schedule | At-track photos

 

Bank of America ROVAL 400

(⏰ Sunday, 2 p.m. ET | NBC | NBC Sports App | PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio)

Weekend schedule TV schedule | Weather tracker | NASCAR 101

Location: Charlotte Motor Speedway road course, Concord, North Carolina
Track length: 2.28 miles
Race purse: $8,056,677
Race distance: 109 laps | 248.52 miles
Stages: 25 | 50 | 109

Starting lineup: Shane van Gisbergen to lead field to green Sunday
Pit stall assignments:
See where drivers will pit
Defending winner:
AJ Allmendinger, October 2023

Key things to watch

Saturday sessions

Saturday belonged to Shane van Gisbergen at the Charlotte Roval as he won both poles for the Xfinity and Cup Series events. With a hot lap of 99.246 mph, the 35-year-old driver earned his first Cup Series pole by holding off playoff driver Tyler Reddick, who will start on the front row with him. AJ Allmendinger and a pair of Team Penske teammates below the elimination line in Joey Logano and Austin Cindric completed the top five in Sunday’s starting lineup.

Kyle Larson (sixth), Chase Elliott (seventh) and William Byron (10th) rounded out the group of playoff drivers entering Sunday’s Round of 12 elimination race with good track position. Chase Briscoe will start last among the playoff field in 25th.

Denny Hamlin struggled in both practice and qualifying, citing his car being “too loose” in the infield section of the course over the No. 11 team’s radio. He finished 23rd in practice and will start 18th on Sunday. | Full Saturday recap

Big story line

Reddick, Elliott, Logano fighting for Round of 8 berths on elimination line

The big elephant in the room is how the reconfigurations in the frontstretch and on the transition to the oval will affect the racing this weekend, but the battle right on the elimination line is quite intriguing.

Regular-season champion Tyler Reddick, 2020 series champ Chase Elliott and two-time titleholder Joey Logano are seventh, eighth and ninth, respectively, in the playoff standings with Elliott and Logano separated by 13 points for the final spot while the No. 45 driver sits just one point ahead of Elliott.

All three drivers could be considered title favorites with their postseason history or performance in 2024 but why this is such an interesting battle is that all three drivers are strong at the Roval. The trio all rank in the top five for average finish in the six-race history of the event, with Logano having the lowest among the three at a whopping 8.7 clip. Elliott is the only driver among the three to win at the Roval and he’s the only Cup driver with multiple wins at the oval/road-course hybrid.

If playoff history means anything, the No. 22 Team Penske driver is not getting eliminated Sunday. In every even year since the birth of the elimination format in 2014, Logano has made the Championship 4, which means one of Elliott or Reddick is trending toward a surprise bounce from the 2024 playoffs.

Knowing Logano and crew chief Paul Wolfe’s willingness to take some big risks to maximize a result, both Elliott and Reddick need to keep the No. 22 in their sight or the writing could be on the wall for their quests for the Bill France Trophy.

History tells us…

A past champion gets eliminated Sunday. Since the introduction of the Roval in 2018, a past Cup Series champion has been eliminated in every race at the Charlotte road course whether the race was held in the Round of 16 (2018, 2019) or Round of 12 (since 2020). In order, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski all saw their playoff campaigns end in their respective years. Oh, and as mentioned earlier, Elliott and Logano are the last in and first out of the Round of 8 picture.

Elliott and Logano are more than capable of bucking that trend with their past performances at the road course, but with double-digit points for Logano to make up on those above him, it will be a tall task barring mistakes from any drivers that are in a comfortable position entering Sunday.

Defending series champion Ryan Blaney is 25 points to the good on his teammate, which could also put him within the trend’s dreaded reach this weekend.

He may not be the betting favorite to win, but watch out for…

ZANE SMITH. Sure, some of Smith’s best results this year have come amid chaos, which is why I’m picking him here as a 130-1 long shot. However, the No. 71 Spire Motorsports team, led by crew chief Stephen Doran, has been exceptional on road courses this season.

Smith has finished inside the top 20 at every road course in 2024 with his best result coming most recently at Watkins Glen (fifth). It’s been an impressive second-half run this year from the rookie, who has finished no worse than 23rd since Richmond, and in that span between the short track and this weekend, he’s scored three top 10s (Michigan, Watkins Glen, Kansas). Look for the No. 71 to be in contention for another top 10 on Sunday. | Roval odds

Speed reads

Our biggest pieces of the week — get covered for race day from all angles.

• Rumble strips changed: NASCAR, Speedway Motorsports institute change before race | Read article 
• Revamped Roval:
Read up on the changes to the Charlotte road course ahead of Sunday’s race | Read article
• Fantasy update:
No surprises in mix of playoff and non-playoff drivers for your lineup | Read article
• Who’s in, who’s out?:
Odds for playoff drivers fighting to survive at Roval | Read article
• Clinching scenarios:
How Cup playoff drivers not already locked in can do so on Sunday | Read article
• Walk-off winners:
Cup drivers to win elimination races to advance to next round | Photo gallery
• Bubble Watch:
Which drivers need big points day on Sunday? | Photo gallery
• Catch-22: 
Why drivers will need to track two-time Joey Logano throughout Sunday’s race | Read article
• Inside the Race:
How Charlotte Roval reconfiguration will change the racing | Watch video
• Crew rosters:
See the full roster for every Cup Series team competing this weekend | Read article
• Active road-course winners:
Chris Buescher is the most recent winner on a road course | Photo gallery
• Power Rankings: Next stop, Championship 4 for William Byron? | Photo gallery
• Road-course ringers:
The winningest Cup Series drivers on left, right-turn circuits | Photo gallery
• Turning Point: How many Hendrick drivers will make the Championship 4? | Read article
• NASCAR Betting:
Which road-course ringer is favored at the Roval? | Photo gallery
• Racing Insights:
Full finishing order projections for Sunday’s playoff race | Read article
• 36 for 36: Check out this week’s survivor pool picks | Read article
• Fantasy Fastlane:
Use a mixture of playoff, non-playoff drivers in your Sunday lineup | Photo gallery
• Fantasy Update:
Finding the right balance at Charlotte Roval | Read article
• Memorable moments: Races for the history books from Watkins Glen | Photo gallery
• Watkins Glen gladiators:
Full list of Cup Series race winners | Photo gallery
• NASCAR Classics: Rewind with three Roval all-timers from the vault | Read article
• Paint Scheme Preview:
New renders for the Charlotte Roval | Pick your favorite

Fast facts

Race-relevant statistics, brought to you by the experts at Racing Insights.

AJ Allmendinger (2023) is the only non-playoff driver to win at the Charlotte Roval.
Hendrick Motorsports drivers have won three of the four road-course races in 2024, all three by different drivers.
The last two road-course winners got their first win of 2024.

From what was expected entering the Round of 12 elimination race at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval, not much has changed. Sure, I’ve replaced a couple of non-playoff drivers in my lineup, but the teams that were expected to be up front in both categories … were.

Road-course powerhouse Shane van Gisbergen scored his first Busch Light pole award at the Cup level, while AJ Allmendinger continued his unbelievable track record at the new-look, 17-turn re-configuration. Add in the likes of Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson rising to the occasion on Saturday, and there are no real surprises in my lineup.

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Dustin Albino’s race-day lineup:

Starter 1: Shane van Gisbergen

Starter 2: Tyler Reddick

Starter 3: AJ Allmendinger

Starter 4: Chase Elliott

Starter 5: Kyle Larson

Garage pick: Joey Logano

NEXT IN LINE: William Byron, Austin Cindric, Kyle Busch, Bubba Wallace

RISING: Bubba Wallace continued his recent surge of performing better on road courses. The No. 23 Toyota ranked seventh in the second practice session on Saturday and advanced to the final round of qualifying. It was this race last year where Wallace turned in his best road-course effort to date. Don’t be surprised if he ups the ante on Sunday.

Who would have thought that Brad Keselowski would carry RFK Racing on a road course thus far at the Charlotte Roval? The No. 6 Ford advanced to the final round of qualifying for the second time this season on a road course (Chicago). With the reconfiguration and how drivers attack the Charlotte road course, it races similarly to a street course. Keselowski has just one top-10 finish in the last 22 road course events, so I’m keeping him out of my lineup. But the No. 6 car had a quality Saturday and it’s worth mentioning.

FALLING: It’s been a long time since Chris Buescher struggled this mightily on a road course. The No. 17 Ford ranked 23rd and 26th in the two practice sessions, respectively, and qualified 29th. Last month at Watkins Glen International, Buescher played strategy and sliced through the field from a 24th-place starting position to score his lone victory of 2024. Don’t count Buescher out, but take him out of your lineup.

Jumping on to the Cup scene over the last two years, Ty Gibbs has put together convincing performances on road courses. He finished fourth at the Charlotte Roval last season and has a pair of additional top fives while turning left and right in 2024. Gibbs was mired outside the top 20 in both practice sessions and qualified 19th. I’ve dropped Gibbs from my lineup, knowing his strategy will be chasing his first victory on Sunday. There are other drivers in the same boat that simply looked better during practice and qualifying.

FEATURED MATCHUPS:

Austin Cindric vs. Chase Briscoe: Cindric narrowly missed my starting lineup and, entering the elimination race 29 points below the bubble, the road-course ace is convinced he’s in a must-win scenario on Sunday. Briscoe is even further back in the standings at 32 points out and is fully chasing the win, believing that makes the No. 14 team’s strategy easier than if he were closer to the elimination line. Cindric has a better car this weekend — one that could potentially win the race.

Joey Logano vs. Daniel Suárez: We highlighted Logano’s impressive Roval numbers in Fastlane earlier this week. That speed translated to this weekend as he ended final practice in fourth and backed that fourth-place effort up in qualifying. Suárez was solid, hovering around 15th in both practices and qualified 13th. Sitting 13 points behind Elliott, who has two prior victories at the Roval, puts Logano in an interesting position from a strategy standpoint, but I’m sticking with the No. 22 Ford.

Chase Elliott vs. Tyler Reddick: Reddick missed his second consecutive pole at the Charlotte Roval by 0.057 seconds, but he was best in class among playoff drivers. However, Elliott bested Reddick in both practice sessions and qualified seventh. This seems like it’s about as even of a matchup as you could ask for, so I’m keeping Reddick as a slight favorite, who has outrun Elliott in three consecutive Roval races.

Alex Bowman vs. Christopher Bell: Based on Bowman’s statistics at the Charlotte Roval (top-10 finishes in all five starts), it might behoove you to keep the No. 48 Chevy out of your lineup. Plus, he’s on a postseason heater, scoring the most points through the first five races. I dropped him from my lineup, however, and believe Bell might move to the slight favorite in this matchup. Though Bowman did win the Chicago Street Race with the right strategy, Bell has been in the mix to win multiple road courses this season — and won here in 2022.