In a sport as fickle as auto racing, correct predictions can be hard to come by — so whenever you land on one, it’s important to crow about it as much as possible, for as long as possible.
(I’m kidding, of course.)
But I did feel suitably validated when Ty Gibbs delivered on our prognostication that he could earn his first-ever win at Bristol this past weekend. The way he did it, too, saw Gibbs hold off Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick — basically the last trio of drivers you want in the rearview mirror — on a late restart to claim his debut victory the hard way.
Now we’re on the hunt for the next phenom who might join the same club as Gibbs … if not right now, then at least fairly soon. And that’s why we’ve got our eye on the No. 77 Spire Motorsports Chevy of Carson Hocevar.
Just like Gibbs, Hocevar is a 23-year-old phenom with a documented history of — let’s just say “aggressive” — driving, which hasn’t always endeared him to his colleagues out on the track. But he also possesses tremendous talent, which eventually ought to translate into his own Cup Series win sooner rather than later.
Because they were born within 117 days of each other in the fall/winter of 2002-03, it’s natural to compare the two young drivers. But although they have both risen to make names for themselves in Cup, it hasn’t been done completely in parallel. While Gibbs famously skipped the Truck Series entirely — winning his first-ever NASCAR national series race in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series just 4½ months after turning 18 — Hocevar spent all or parts of five seasons in the Trucks, working up to a fourth-place finish in the standings in 2023.
By then, Gibbs had already won the O’Reilly title and was in his first full-time Cup season after a part-time season spent driving in relief of an injured Kurt Busch for 23XI Racing:

So even though Hocevar went straight from a primary Truck Series ride — with 14 additional races spread across the O’Reilly and Cup Series — to a full-time spot in Cup starting in 2024, he’s always been running a bit behind the meteoric pace set by Gibbs. That’s why Hocevar has only 89 career Cup starts, versus 131 for Gibbs (and why Gibbs was so much younger than the other drivers who took 130+ races to record their first career Cup wins), despite the two being the same age.
Gibbs may also have more potential than Hocevar at baseline. If we plot out their rolling projected Driver Ratings — according to my Cup Series ranking method, which assigns each driver a number based on their recent performance — after each race of their Cup Series careers, the two followed very similar early trajectories, but ultimately seemed to settle into a pattern with Gibbs in a higher range than Hocevar has reached recently.
(Granted, JGR equipment is no doubt helping Gibbs here. By comparison, Hocevar is with a less-established team but has long outperformed its standard to date, with a 98-71 career head-to-head record against his Spire teammates.)
All of that being said, Gibbs also began a dramatic downturn in performance right before the same point where Hocevar is now, by career race number. So, technically speaking, Hocevar is actually currently ahead of where Gibbs was then — though Gibbs eventually recovered and returned to (even later surpassing) his previous norms for performance.

It’s still unclear what drove Gibbs’ extended slump in late 2024 and early 2025 — but whether due to personnel turnover at JGR (switching crew chiefs from Chris Gayle to Tyler Allen, among other moves), frictions with former competition director Chris Gabehart, or other factors, he had an uncharacteristic period of 20 or so down races before returning to form.
Hocevar, by contrast, has enjoyed a measure of stability as Spire’s focal-point driver, leveling off at an above-average Driver Rating relative to the rest of Cup without too many abnormal changes in recent performance. But will that be good enough to win?
Most likely, Hocevar will need to improve at least a bit more in order to become a race winner — much like Gibbs has done this season. If we plot out the rolling expected Driver Ratings for all race winners since 2005, the large majority of winners were better at the time of their wins than Hocevar is right now:

That’s not to say it’s impossible for Hocevar to win at his current performance level. But only 4.1% of winners since 2005 had a lower rating than his current mark of 76.3 at the time of their win, while 95.9% of winners had a higher rating at the time they won.
One thing working for Hocevar, though, is that time is on his side — and this is where the comparison with Gibbs comes in handy again. Here’s a plot of all the current rolling expected Driver Ratings for 2026 Cup Series regulars, with their ages listed (as of July 1):

There is a notable generational “void” in the chart between William Byron (age 28) and Austin Cindric (27), and Gibbs and Hocevar (both 23). The only driver in the middle zone between them is Todd Gilliland (26), and he carries a rating well below Cup average. Meanwhile, on the other side of Gibbs/Hocevar is just Connor Zilisch, who’s still just 19 and remains one of the sport’s greatest-ever prospects, but for now is struggling as a rookie to adapt to the Cup Series learning curve.
Others in a similar age range are currently competing in the O’Reilly Series: William Sawalich (19), Corey Day (20), Jesse Love (21), Sammy Smith (21), Carson Kvapil (22) and Parker Retzlaff (22). Like Zilisch, all will eventually be threats to win at the Cup level, potentially siphoning away chances to win from Hocevar.
But as things currently stand, Hocevar has an uncommon amount of runway in front of him. He’s at an age when great drivers begin to make rapid progress; he only has one proven rival in the same age bracket (Gibbs) — who was in the midst of a deep slump at the same moment (in terms of career Cup races) when Hocevar has been busy putting together a solid season — and who later provided a template for how a young, brash, hard-charging driver can mature into a race winner.
Yes, the sport’s many mid-to-late-prime superstars will have plenty to say about when (or even whether) Hocevar reaches Victory Lane. But like all forces of nature, don’t be surprised if “The Hurricane” blows his way into that conversation, too.



























