Tricon Garage driver Kaden Honeycutt takes a strong 43-point advantage over Front Row Motorsports’ Layne Riggs into Friday night’s Black’s Tire 200 presented by Down East Heating & Air Conditioning at Martinsville Speedway (6 p.m. ET, FS1, NASCAR Racing Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), but neither driver is calling this title run done with two races remaining to settle the trophy honors.
Honeycutt rallied to a fifth-place effort at Talladega Superspeedway last week in the kind of thrilling overtime finish that fans and competitors have come to expect at the big track. Riggs was eighth in his No. 34 Ford. And now the series transitions from the sport’s largest track to one of its smallest at 0.526 mile.
“Looking forward to Martinsville, and got a good cushion, but you never say it is over till it is over,” Honeycutt said after the Talladega checkered flag. “I’m sure we will be racing hard for the win next week.”
Riggs has four finishes of 15th or better at Martinsville and remains optimistic despite the points deficit he faces.
“We set as a goal that if I was 45 [points] or worse back, we’re not gonna have a shot,” said Riggs, whose father Scott won at Martinsville in 2001.
“Obviously, I think the 11 [Honeycutt] can’t be as good as us. We’re gonna have to go dominate the next two races. I know this team can do it. We’ve done it all year long. I’m excited. This is gonna be fun.”
Defending series champion Corey Heim is also the defending race winner, having claimed the trophy for Tricon Garage last October — finishing just ahead of Honeycutt, whose runner-up showing is his best finish and only his second top-10 in six starts at the track.
Riggs started from pole position, led 27 laps, and also turned in his career-best effort at the track with a third-place finish in the fall 2025 race.
Last week’s Talladega race winner, Sammy Smith, who announced his new contract to team with Honeycutt next year at Tricon, will be in the field again keeping the title contenders honest.
The winningest Chase-eligible driver at Martinsville that’s in Friday night’s field is actually Christian Eckes, who swept the 2024 races at the track. The only other Chase drivers with past wins at Martinsville are Eckes’ McAnally-Hilgemann Racing teammate Daniel Hemric (spring 2025) and CR7 Motorsports’ Grant Enfinger (fall 2020). Hemric and Enfinger have been mathematically eliminated from title contention, while Eckes remains mathematically eligible despite trailing Honeycutt by 144 points.
There is a lot to race for in these final two races of the year. Eckes dropped two positions after Talladega to fifth place in the standings, but is only three points out of third place. Hemric dropped four spots to seventh at Talladega but is 17 points behind sixth place Gio Ruggiero. Enfinger shows up at Martinsville ranked last among the 10 Chase drivers, but is 25 points behind Hemric in seventh.
Practice is at 12:30 p.m. ET on Friday followed by Kennametal Pole Qualifying at 1:35 p.m. ET — both televised on FS2. Riggs is the defending pole winner.
At long last, Kyle Larson! The No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports driver claimed the NASCAR Cup Series victory at Talladega Superspeedway in breathtaking fashion, overtaking seven cars over the last quarter-mile on the last lap to claim his first career superspeedway win.
With the triumph, Larson — who entered the contest just five points clear in The Chase presented by Mobil 1 standings — swelled his cushion to 73, a 68-point increase in his championship lead. Swift speed certainly did the trick. So did avoiding major incidents, with a collection of Chasers not as lucky in that regard. Larson now has one hand on the Bill France Cup with two Chase contests remaining, with the ball clearly in the two-time champion’s court.
That said, Larson isn’t across the start/finish line yet in terms of the championship crown. For one, he’d still need to start the race next week at Homestead-Miami Speedway in order to be officially crowned the champion. But first, Martinsville Speedway is on deck (Sun., 2 p.m. ET, NBC, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), and while Larson has impressive numbers at “The Paperclip,” plenty of other drivers do, too. Which driver could spoil the early Clinchmas party for Larson at the half-mile is this week’s “Last Call” question.
Which driver could spoil Kyle Larson’s early title clinch pursuit at Martinsville?
Zack Albert: There’s still a window of opportunity for the field to forestall Kyle Larson’s bid for a repeat Cup Series crown, and the best candidate to head that off is Ryan Blaney. The Team Penske pro has finished top three in every fall race at Martinsville in the Next Gen era, with two clutch victories (2023, 2024) during that stretch and a series-best average finish of 5.1 in the last 10 Martinsville events. While a 107-point deficit and sixth-place rank in the standings make the prospects of another title charge an uphill task, Blaney has reliable performance at the 0.526-mile track and the best shot at forcing the championship fight to a Homestead crescendo.
Dustin Albino: At the midway point of the 2026 season, Joey Logano sat 20th in the regular-season standings, on the verge of missing the postseason entirely. Since then, the No. 22 team has found its stride, capturing victories at North Wilkesboro Speedway and Richmond Raceway before adding another at Bristol Motor Speedway — all short tracks — during The Chase. Logano became the first driver since Martin Truex Jr. in 2019 to win three short-track events in the same season. Sitting fifth on The Chase grid, 100 points behind Larson with two races remaining, Logano could improve his own standing with a victory at Martinsville. The three-time Cup Series champion has recorded 14 consecutive top-10 finishes at “The Paperclip,” tying Lee Petty for the third-longest streak in track history. Overall, Logano has 23 top-10 finishes in 35 Martinsville starts, his most at any track.
Cameron Richardson: Team Penske is always tough to beat in the fall Martinsville race, but last year in this contest, William Byron fended off a hard challenge from Ryan Blaney and won his way into the Championship 4. The 2026 season has been disappointing for the No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports camp, which is two races away from its first winless season since 2019. Byron also sits 11th in points, which could land him with his worst result in the final standings since 2020. With three top fives and two wins in the last five events at the Virginia short track, Byron could be in a position to set up Larson for his clinching moment — a trade-off after Byron played a massive role in Larson’s first superspeedway victory and got a runner-up result out of it. However, Larson finished ninth in the spring, and based on the results from that race, Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell can keep their title hopes alive if the Hendrick driver winning Sunday isn’t Larson.
Zach Sturniolo: Let’s not forget about the home-state hero, Denny Hamlin. If anyone can still steal the championship away from Larson, it’s the man in second place — 73 points out — with one hell of a track record at “The Paperclip.” With six Martinsville wins on the resume, Hamlin is the Cup Series’ winningest active driver by double over William Byron’s three. That includes a monstrous performance by the No. 11 Toyota in the spring of 2025 that led to his first Martinsville victory since 2015. And while that gap between wins is a decade long, Hamlin has finished inside the top five in six of the last eight Martinsville races, one thwarted only by an engine failure. Hamlin also leads nearly every time the series lands in Martinsville, leading over 100 laps in six of his last 11 starts there. It is hard to ignore the lack of excellence we have seen from the No. 11 team through The Chase despite entering as the No. 1 seed, but it’s also hard to ignore some numbers lining up for him this weekend.
Pat DeCola: Martinsville has already propelled one Chase Elliott championship run — and it could be the place he delays Kyle Larson’s next one. Elliott won the fall race here in 2020 to punch his ticket to the Championship 4, then won the title a week later. And this spring, Alan Gustafson’s bold strategy call helped the No. 9 steal another grandfather clock from Denny Hamlin, who led a whopping 292 laps. Elliott’s championship hopes are over this year, but his ability to win in Hot Dog Heaven certainly isn’t. Larson needs 59 points Sunday to clinch regardless of what anybody else does, which requires a victory. An Elliott win would take that scenario off the table, even if Larson could still clinch otherwise with some help. Funny how Hendrick could leave Martinsville with another clock, yet still walk away feeling like it left something for the taking.
Moving away from the previous iteration of NASCAR Playoffs, with its wild chaos around cut-off races each round, one of the concerns around (re-)introducing The Chase presented by Mobil 1 might have been its relative stability — what happens when a single race can no longer completely upend the championship picture by explicitly eliminating certain drivers?
Well, if the past two weeks have proven anything, it’s that the new/current system can also provide plenty of dramatic reversals of fortune on its own.
A week after a disastrous run at Phoenix had Kyle Larson in a real title-race fight for the first time in many weeks, The Chase showed it could giveth as well as taketh away. While many of Larson’s chief rivals were getting caught up in big wrecks and/or finding other ways to ruin their days, Larson showcased the perseverance to survive dropping back to 11th place on the final lap, the drafting skills to work his way back toward the front of the field along the backstretch, and the split-second instincts to make the winning move through the tri-oval and secure his third victory in the eight-race span of The Chase thus far.
It was the kind of brilliant win that made you wonder why Larson had never won at a superspeedway before this past weekend. But it also put his competitors in a very tight spot, with only two races to go on the 2026 Chase calendar.
Not only does Larson currently lead the standings again — as has been the case each of the past six weeks, since Bristol — but his 73-point cushion over second-ranked Denny Hamlin is the largest lead he (or anyone else) has held at any point during the 2026 Chase.
That’s bad news for the rest of the field, because there’s less time than ever — just two remaining races — in which to potentially catch Larson. It’s not mathematically impossible to do so; Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney and Tyler Reddick are not eliminated from championship consideration yet. But their paths are getting more and more narrow.
If Larson scores 27 points over the next two races, for instance, Reddick cannot possibly beat him even if the No. 45 team scores maximum points (across stages, race finishes and the fastest lap). That figure is 46 points for Larson versus Blaney, and 53 for Larson versus Logano. Seeing as how Larson averaged about 65 points per every two races this season, and 76 points at a combination of short flat tracks (like Martinsville) and high tire-wear intermediate tracks (like Homestead), even perfect performances from the Nos. 12 and 22 Penske teams probably won’t be enough to avoid elimination.
That leaves Hamlin, Bell and possibly Briscoe as the only drivers with a realistic shot at pulling off the comeback and outdueling Larson down The Chase’s stretch run. So what can each do to keep their championship hopes alive?
Chase Briscoe (-79 points):
Briscoe could have a shot if things come down to Homestead-Miami, given his recent surge at intermediate tracks — as we just saw him rattle off back-to-back wins at Las Vegas and Charlotte, which are mile-and-a-half tracks in the same family as Homestead. In fact, almost all of his championship-winning simulations (91%) in my forecast model featured a Homestead victory.
But to get the chance to make that scenario happen, Briscoe needs much better results at Martinsville than he’s gotten recently. Over the past five Cup races at “The Paperclip,” Briscoe has finished better than 10th just once — a ninth-place run in March 2025. If Briscoe scores his average of 27 points per Martinsville race from over that span, Larson would need to score only 24 to eliminate the No. 19 from title eligibility.
Christopher Bell (-74 points):
With a real shot to take down Larson within his grasp at Talladega, an early unforced error on pit road effectively squandered any hopes Bell had to capitalize on that opportunity. Now down 74 points, he must have near-perfect drives for two consecutive races and hope Larson suffers the same kind of mistakes that derailed the No. 20 car a week ago.
Working in Bell’s favor is, as we highlighted last week, his success on short and/or flat tracks like Martinsville. He has an average finish of 8.0 in eight races on that category of track this season, with six top 10s and four top fives. (At Martinsville specifically, his past three finishes are second, seventh and seventh.) And his performance on intermediate ovals this season — including a Southern 500 victory, a runner-up finish at Chicagoland and second-place runs at both Charlotte races — offers reason to believe he could deliver a big result at Homestead.
Denny Hamlin (-73 points):
For most of the summer and into the opening weeks of The Chase, it seemed like this was finally the year for Hamlin to win his first-ever championship. But as The Chase schedule has worn on, the shine has worn off of Denny’s title hopes. It isn’t like he’s necessarily driven poorly in The Chase; his average finish is 11.9 over those eight races — with five top 10s and an average Driver Rating of 93.2, totally respectable numbers. But “respectable” isn’t what wins championships, and Hamlin seemed to know that in the wake of Talladega.
“Truthfully, [Larson has] done a lot of things right, and a lot of things have really gone right, and we’ve not done that,” Hamlin said.
Certainly, two merely solid Hamlin weekends won’t erase a 73-point deficit — he needs wins, and he needs them right now. If Hamlin wins twice at the average points per race from his wins this season (64.3), Larson would need to score at least 57 points across Martinsville and Homestead in order to clinch the championship. That’s not an impossibly high bar regardless — Larson has scored at least 29 points in 21 of 34 races this season, or 61.8% — but it would put pressure on the No. 5 team to summon a baseline level of performance to hold off Hamlin.
But does Denny have that kind of run left in the tank? Maybe Martinsville, where he’s won more of those iconic grandfather clocks than any other active full-time driver, is the start of one last, improbable comeback.
The NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series arrives at Martinsville Speedway with the most competitive battle atop the standings — seven drivers still eligible to hoist the championship trophy next week at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Reigning series champion and Richard Childress Racing driver Jesse Love leads the standings by 19 points over 2024 champion, JR Motorsports’ Justin Allgaier. Hendrick Motorsports rookie Corey Day is 29 points off the pace with Haas Factory Team’s Sheldon Creed (minus-50), JRM’s Carson Kvapil (minus-59), Creed’s HFT teammate Sam Mayer (minus-96) and last week’s Talladega winner, JRM’s Sammy Smith (minus-108), still eligible to earn the title.
Five drivers in the series have previous wins at Martinsville, including Harrison Burton, Brandon Jones, Austin Hill and Taylor Gray, who claimed his first career win in this race last year. Allgaier is the only full-time driver with multiple wins, earning his second iconic Martinsville clock trophies — just this spring.
Points leader Love conceded last week that the Martinsville half-miler may be his biggest challenge in closing out the season and becoming the series’ first back-to-back champ since Tyler Reddick in 2018-2019. The driver of the No. 2 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet has a best finish of 12th in the last six short-track races and is averaging an 18.6 finish at Martinsville — worst among the seven drivers still championship eligible.
Creed, meanwhile, boasts the best average finish (4.0) on short tracks this season. Allgaier has been second best (8.3), followed by the defending race winner Gray (9.0).
“I can’t wait to get to Martinsville this weekend,” Allgaier said. “We are still in this fight, and Martinsville is a great place to continue to gain ground on the points lead. We had an unbelievable car here in the spring, and I know that [crew chief] Andrew [Overstreet] and all the guys on this No. 7 team will give me a car just as strong when we hit the track on Friday. We just need to execute like we did earlier this year here and keep the fenders clean.”
Nine different drivers have won the last nine short-track races on the schedule. Specific to Martinsville, the last six fall races have been won by six different drivers.
The last three short-track races have featured winning passes in the closing 10 laps of the race, and seven of the last 10 Martinsville races have gone to overtime.
Practice starts at 3 p.m. ET on Friday, followed by Kennametal Pole Qualifying at 4:05 p.m. ET. Harrison Burton is the defending pole winner.
And then there were two. It’s time for the penultimate race weekend of the 2026 season, with all three NASCAR national series making the short trip north to Martinsville Speedway for a Chase presented by Mobil 1 tripleheader. The Craftsman Truck Series is slated to race Friday evening, with the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series going to battle Saturday afternoon and the Cup Series capping off the weekend with matinee action on Sunday. See qualifying orders for all three races in Virginia.
Ford Racing announced on Wednesday its full 12-driver lineup for the inaugural Nov. 11 Proud to Honor Veterans Day Classic at the Daytona International Speedway road course, three days after the NASCAR Cup Series season ends.
The original equipment manufacturer (OEM) first announced the event in June during NASCAR’s Naval Base Coronado race weekend. The event will benefit six nonprofits supporting military and veteran communities through the newly established Proud to Honor Fund, powered by GlobalGiving. Half of ticket proceeds will also benefit Blue Star Families.
Six two-driver teams featuring Ford competitors from various racing disciplines, including NASCAR, will honor the six military branches, with each Mustang Dark Horse R featuring a military-inspired livery. The teams and the military branches represented are:
U.S. Army: Brad Keselowski and Joey Hand U.S. Marine Corps: Ryan Blaney and Ben Hobson U.S. Navy: Ryan Preece and Logan Sargeant U.S. Air Force: Austin Cindric and Frankie Muniz U.S. Space Force: Noah Gragson and Layne Riggs U.S. Coast Guard: Joey Logano and Ty Majeski
“It’s gonna be fun to have that opportunity to race on the Daytona road course and really go up against other disciplines of motorsports. There’s gonna be a wide variety of drivers out there,” Gragson said in a September media call, shortly after being announced as one of the first confirmed competitors. “We’re gonna raise some good money for a lot of good groups and organizations and just have some fun. It’s gonna be televised, which is really cool, but also for those trying to get out to the race track in Daytona, it’s gonna be an action-packed day and I’m really looking forward to it.”
The teams will compete in a 15-minute qualifying session followed by a 30-minute race around the 12-turn, 3.6-mile road course used annually for IMSA’s Rolex 24 at Daytona. NASCAR hosted points-paying races in all three national series on the circuit in 2020 and 2021, as well as the Cup Series’ preseason Clash race in 2021.
The race will air live at 8 p.m. ET on USA Network with streaming available on Fandango. Entertainment segments, headlined by concerts from Zac Brown Band and other musical acts, will air live on E!
Tickets for the event are available here through Ford and Daytona. Veterans and active-duty military will receive a discount, and all fees are waived through Ticketmaster.
The group of track champions for 2026 is no different.
Of the 45 track champions in the NASCAR Local Racing Series this year, Joey Tanner of Oregon’s Willamette Speedway stood out as the Division I national champion. Also on the list of track champs is Evergreen Speedway’s Haley Constance, the 2026 Wendell Scott Trailblazer Award winner.
Each track awards a $15,000 payout to its champions across all divisions, with a cool $3,500 going to each Division I track title winner.
Below is the complete list of NASCAR Local Racing Series track champions for 2026, featuring each facility’s Division I winner and including all the champs for each track’s lower divisions.
2026 NASCAR Local Racing Series track champions
Ace Speedway: Dustin Rumley
Division II: Matthew Wilburn
Division III: Gary Young Jr.
Division IV: Michael Herron
Adams County Speedway: Brad Bergren
Division II: Steve Churchill
Division III: Shawn Kralik
Division IV: Jim Tull
Division V: Braxton Wallace
Alaska Raceway Park: Alex Van Nice
Division II: Steven Ange
Division III: Paul Zanto
Division IV: Richard Bogan
All American Speedway: Kenna Mitchell
Division II: Jose Hernandez
Division III: Timothy Walters
Division IV: Raymond Molina
Arrowhead Speedway: Dalton Ragsdale
Division II-IV winners TBA
Autodrome Chaudière Vallée-Jonction: Anthony Lessard
Division II: Alexandre Tessier
Division III: Dale Coté
Division IV: Olivier Racine
Autodrome Granby: Mathieu Desjardins
Division II: Jacob Nadeau
Division III: Mathieu Voghell
Division IV: Bastien Caron
Berlin Raceway: Brian Campbell
Division II: Nick DeLongpre
Division III: Tim DeVos
Division IV: Luke Bouma
Division V: David Cutler
Birch Run Speedway: David McManus
Division II: Lonnie Saumier
Division III: Nick Lechota
Division IV: Joseph Hodgeson II
Bowman Gray Stadium: Burt Myers
Division II: Billy Gregg
Division III: Brad Lewis
Division IV: Stephen Sanders
Caraway Speedway: Dylan Ward
Division II: Tyler Bush
Divison III: David Creed
Division IV: Brandon Crotts
Division V: Tito Clapp
Colorado National Speedway: Kody Vanderwal
Division II: Travis Roe
Division III: Eric Meisner
Division IV: Ryan Jones
Division V: Jereme Wall
Division VI: Brent Cave
Division VII: Tanner McKim
Coos Bay Speedway: Tim Debaun
Division II: Waybne Butler
Division III: Jordan Stevens
Division IV: Tucker Kelner
Dells Raceway Park: Mike Lichtfeld
Division II: Dave Trute
Division III: Tanner Berge
Division IV: Brad Warthan
Dominion Raceway: Aaron Donnelly
Division II-VIII winners TBA
Eastbound International Speedway: Jason Groves
Division II: Makenzie Upshall
Edmonton International Raceway: Kaylee Wilkie
Division II: Kaylee Wilkie
Division III: Corbin Satre
Elko Speedway: Chris Marek
Division II: Dillon Sellner
Division III: Michael Stoer
Division IV: Doug Brown
Evergreen Speedway: Haley Constance
Division II: Jackson Beckel
Division III: Zach Bristol
Division IV: Mackenzie Repin
Division V: Damon Claibourn
Grandview Speedway: Logan Watt
Division II: Joseph Toth
Grundy County Speedway: Franc Beldowski
Division II: Cameron Preisler
Division III: Chad Bayuk
Division IV: Dan Schmeissing
Hawkeye Downs Speedway: Kody King
Division II: Brandon Herb
Division III: Hayden Sherman
Division IV: Chad Vozenilek
Hickory Motor Speedway: Paityn Feyen
Division II-IV winners TBA
Jennerstown Speedway Complex: Jarred Barclay
Division II: Kyle Burkholder
Division III: John Fama
Division IV: Ken Burkholder
Division V: Rick Meehleib Sr.
Division VI: Cameron Ruggles
Kevin Harvick’s Kern Raceway: Tanner Huddleston
Division II-III winners TBA
Kingsport Speedway: Ashton Higgins
Division II: Cope Higgins
Division III: Rob Austin
Division IV: Rocky Yates
Division V: Steven Watts
Division VI: Keith McMurray
Division VII: Tyler Swecker
LaCrosse Fairgrounds Speedway: Skylar Holzhausen
Division II: Charles Vian Jr.
Division III: Jimmy Bjorkman
Langley Speedway: Woody Howard
Division II: Spencer Conrad
Division III: Sammy Gaita
Division IV: Mikey Chinn
Division V: Tillman Heuer
Division VI: Chris McEvoy
Division VII: Paul Lubno
Division VIII: Brad Adams
Division IX: Debbie Biesecker
Lonesome Pine Raceway: Lance Gatlin
Division II: Chase Dixon
Division III: Joshua Gobble
Division IV: Joey Sykes
Division V: Kevin Canter
Division VI: John Ketron
Division VII: Tyler Swecker
Division VIII: Daniel McMurray
Magic Valley Speedway: Jason Quale
Division II: Ronn McClimans
Division III: Brandon Greco
Meridian Speedway: Josh Randolph
Division II: Andrew Palmer
Division III: Scott Groom
Division IV: Riley Rogers
Division V: Dusty Sterner
Monadnock Speedway: Tyler Leary
Division II: JD Stockwell
Division III: Rob Richardi Jr.
Division IV: Timothy Paquette
Motorplex at the Mill: Zach Telford
Division II winner TBA
New Smyrna Speedway: Brad May
Division II-XII winners TBA
Riverhead Raceway: Owen Grennan
Division II-VIII winners TBA
RPM Speedway: Donovan Lussier
Division II: Jacob Nadeau
Division III: Charles-Antoine Pepin-Bessette
Division IV: Stephane St-Laurent
Salina Highbanks Speedway: Mitch Keeter
Division II: Dylan Cantwell
Division III: Steve Freeman
Division IV: William Avila
Division V: Austin Gammill
Seekonk Speedway: Nick Lascuola
Division II: Chase Belcher
Division III: Randy Moretti
Division IV: Richie Helger Jr.
South Boston Speedway: Trevor Ward
Division II: Brian Rundstrom Jr.
Division III: Johnny Layne
Division IV: Landon Milam
The Bullring at Las Vegas Motor Speedway: Jeffrey Peterson
Entering Talladega Superspeedway, seven drivers were separated by 56 points atop the NASCAR Cup Series standings. After 189 heart-stopping laps, The Chase presented by Mobil 1 was completely flipped on its head.
Kyle Larson won Sunday’s YellaWood 500, leading 23 laps and prevailing in a wild overtime shootout after falling as far as 11th on the final lap. The victory seemed unlikely for a multitude of reasons, including his previous 0-for-58 record in the draft.
Larson led Christopher Bell by just five points before visiting the Alabama high banks, but his now 73-point advantage over Denny Hamlin puts him in a position to earn enough points to clinch the championship this weekend at Martinsville Speedway, though he would still need to start the race next weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway in order to officially be crowned the champion.
Ahead of Sunday’s Xfinity 500 (2 p.m. ET, NBC, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), see how Larson can secure the title in Virginia — and what his competitors need to do to extend the championship fight another week.
Top four
KYLE LARSON (leads by 73 points)
Regular-season synopsis: Earned No. 7 seed. Larson carried a lengthy winless streak from May 2025 through the opening 26 races of 2026. He finished outside the top 30 nine times, including a stretch of four in five races during the summer months. Dropping as low as 10th in points in August, Larson banked a P6 at Richmond Raceway and a top five at Loudon to elevate him three more spots to seventh to start the postseason.
How he got here: The defending champion turned up the wick once September hit, finishing sixth or better in the first six Chase races while banking wins at Gateway and Kansas to snap a 51-race winless streak. With a 2.83 average finish, Larson had the second-best six-race stretch in Cup Series postseason history. His lone Chase mishap so far came at Phoenix, where an ill-handling race car and tire failure resulted in a 34th-place finish, but he immediately bounced back with his Talladega dub to open up his championship lead.
His scenarios: Larson controls his own destiny and can clinch the championship at Martinsville by scoring 59 points, regardless of how his competitors fare. Racing Insights projects a 92.3% chance of winning the championship, with a 36.8% chance of clinching on Sunday. Although Larson has the hot hand, his 34th-place finish at Phoenix demonstrated how quickly a commanding points advantage can shrink.
DENNY HAMLIN (trails by 73 points)
Regular-season synopsis: Earned No. 1 seed. Hamlin trailed Tyler Reddick for the series lead by 129 points after the 12th race of the season at Watkins Glen International — but not due to a lack of performance. Over the summer months, Reddick cooled down, which coincided with a three-race win streak for the No. 11 driver. Hamlin passed his 23XI Racing driver for the top spot in June at Sonoma Raceway and finished the regular season with six top-seven finishes in the final eight races to secure a 25-point head start for the postseason.
How he got here: Hamlin has suffered some type of issue in nearly every Chase race, posting just two top fives. Notably, a slow pit stop in the opener at Darlington Raceway relegated him to midpack, where contact with Michael McDowell ultimately resulted in an 18th-place finish. A Stage 1 spin led to a 16th-place finish at Las Vegas Motor Speedway — a track where he had won the previous two races — and a flat tire at Phoenix mired him a lap down and in 28th.
His scenarios: Racing Insights currently projects the Joe Gibbs Racing driver with a 4.1% chance of winning the championship. He needs to outscore Larson by 74 points over the final two races, a feat he’s accomplished five times since 2017 with points adjusted to the modern format. Hamlin needs to leave Martinsville within 22 points of Larson to control his own destiny at Homestead, a 3.2% chance of happening. But if Larson outscores Hamlin by three or more points on Sunday, Hamlin would be eliminated. If Hamlin wins both Martinsville and Homestead, his championship odds increase to 60%.
Jonathan Bachman | Getty Images
CHRISTOPHER BELL (trails by 74 points)
Regular-season synopsis: Earned No. 6 seed. Bell had six finishes of 17th or worse in a seven-race stretch, spanning from Darlington Raceway in March to Watkins Glen in May — dropping as low as 12th in points. He warmed up with the temperatures, though, finishing second a record seven times without a win during the regular season, including a stretch of four in five races. That heater came just weeks after suffering a fractured wrist in a violent crash at Michigan.
How he got here: The No. 20 driver opened The Chase with a crown-jewel victory in the Southern 500 and finished sixth or better in five of the first eight races. Bell suffered damage in a crash at Gateway and finished 19th, then battled power steering woes to finish 23rd at Las Vegas. His biggest setback came at Talladega, where he crashed by himself during green-flag pit stops and finished 35th.
His scenarios: Racing Insights currently projects Bell with a 2% chance of winning the championship. To remain eligible for the title entering Homestead, Larson cannot outscore him by two or more points; otherwise, Bell would be eliminated. With victories in the last two races, Bell’s championship odds increase to 49.4%.
CHASE BRISCOE (trails by 79 points)
Regular-season synopsis: Earned No. 5 seed. Briscoe finished 36th or worse in three of the first four races, placing him 32nd in points and with a large hole to dig out of early on. A seven-race stretch over the summer where he finished sixth or better six times elevated him to fifth in points after a runner-up finish at Richmond Raceway in August. His lone regular-season victory came during that stretch at Chicagoland Speedway, winning the track’s first race since 2019 and banking 70 points.
How he got here: The No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing driver started the postseason with a sixth-place finish at Darlington, but things went south rather quickly. He was taken out at Gateway, an innocent bystander to Chase Elliott’s brake rotor failure in Turn 1, before late, self-inflicted wall contact at Bristol put him behind the wall six laps early. Briscoe ripped off back-to-back wins at Las Vegas and Charlotte Motor Speedway before finishing eighth at Phoenix, climbing from minus 123 to just minus 24 in three races until a DNF at Talladega resulted in a major setback.
His scenarios: Racing Insights currently projects Briscoe with a 1.3% chance of winning the championship. To remain eligible for the title entering Homestead, Briscoe needs to outscore Larson by three or more points at Martinsville; otherwise, he would be eliminated. With victories in the last two races, Briscoe’s championship odds increase to 49.8%.
Next three
Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney and Tyler Reddick all remain mathematically eligible, but face Herculean deficits to overcome in the final two races. Logano trails by 100, Blaney by 107 and Reddick by 126. Racing Insights projects all three drivers’ championship odds at 0.1%.
For Logano to stay eligible: He needs to outscore Larson by 25 or more points at Martinsville. If he wins the final two races, his championship odds increase to 23%.
For Blaney to stay eligible: He needs to outscore Larson by 32 or more points at Martinsville. If he wins the final two races, his championship odds increase to 9.1%.
For Reddick to stay eligible: He needs to outscore Larson by 51 or more points at Martinsville. If he wins the final two races, his championship odds increase to 2.7%.
Eliminated
The following drivers are no longer mathematically eligible to win the championship: Austin Cindric, Ty Gibbs, Carson Hocevar, William Byron, Chase Elliott, Bubba Wallace, Daniel Suárez, Ryan Preece and Chris Buescher.
NASCAR warned most of the field about maintaining minimum speed when many drivers were conserving fuel during the first stage of Sunday’s Cup Series race at Talladega Superspeedway.
During the latest episode of the “Hauler Talk” podcast, NASCAR vice president of racing communications Mike Forde said “75% of the field at one point” was under minimum speed, which NASCAR relayed to all the teams through its Microsoft Teams chat system.
“We can IM individual teams or the entirety of pit road,” Forde said. “And so we IM’d all of pit road and said, ‘Hey, there are X amount of cars that have not reached minimum speed. If you guys don’t pick it up, then we’re going to have to step in.’ And soon after, they picked it up. So that message was delivered, and that’s why we did not black flag anybody.”
Minimum speed is determined according to the race track. At Talladega, the minimum speed is within 12.5% of the pole position.
Forde said NASCAR decides when to issue a black flag for falling below minimum speed, but drivers usually get a lap or two to increase their pace.
NASCAR can also adjust the minimum speed during a race if tire wear is much greater than anticipated.
“It depends on a number of different factors,” Forde said. “At Darlington [Raceway], we’ll give teams the benefit of the doubt a little bit more because of tire wear. Over the course of a tire run, speeds go much, much lower, and we don’t want to park cars because of the tire wear. So we’ll give them a much larger cushion.”
Forde said minimum speed is largely officiated in conjunction with the Damaged Vehicle Policy that ensures cars remain in raceable condition after a wreck.
“We’re not looking to put cars out of the race,” Forde said. “There are sponsors paying good money to be part of our sport. And there are fans that come to the race and want to see – even if their driver’s not in contention and might not win – they’d like to see them at least on the race track. So we’re not in the business of putting cars out. We’re going to keep them out there on the race track for the fans.”
Other topics covered by Forde and senior director of racing communications Amanda Ellis during the 75th episode of “Hauler Talk,” which explores competition issues in NASCAR:
– How NASCAR ruled that Kyle Larson stayed above the yellow line and whether penalties were considered for other drivers.
– The review of SMT data on the final lap.
Nate Ryan has written about NASCAR since 1996 while working at the San Bernardino Sun, Richmond Times-Dispatch, USA Today Co. and for the past 10 years at NBC Sports Digital. He is a contributor to the “Hauler Talk” show on the NASCAR Podcast Network. He has also covered various other motorsports, including the IndyCar and IMSA series.
Brad Keselowski will address the media on Saturday at Martinsville Speedway, he announced Tuesday via social media.
Keselowski, the 2012 NASCAR Cup Series champion, currently drives the No. 6 Ford for RFK Racing, a team which he currently co-owns. Keselowski and RFK Racing announced Sept. 29 that the two will part ways at the end of the season, ousting Keselowski from the No. 6 Ford at the conclusion of a five-year driving contract.
“The outpouring of support and interest in my future racing plans over the past few weeks has been truly humbling. From the bottom of my heart, thank you,” Keselowski said in a statement. “I know there are still questions, and I plan to address several of them during my press conference Saturday morning at Martinsville Speedway. I sincerely appreciate everyone’s patience, encouragement and continued support. It means more than you know.”
Keselowski has not yet revealed detailed plans for the 2027 season but has expressed that he wishes to remain behind the wheel in NASCAR. In an Oct. 23 report by Sports Business Journal, Keselowski confirmed he attempted to purchase RFK Racing in full, but his bid was rejected by the other owners of the team, Jack Roush’s Roush Enterprises and Fenway Sports Group.
Keselowski is a 36-time winner in the Cup Series, ranking 25th all-time just ahead of current points leader and two-time champion Kyle Larson. The Michigan native is 19th in the points standings ahead of Sunday’s Xfinity 500 (2 p.m. ET, NBC, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
Keselowski’s press conference can be seen live at NASCAR.com/PressPass on Saturday at 11 a.m. ET.
