Racing Insights: Which driver will scorch their way to Phoenix victory?

Posted on March 7, 2026March 7, 2026 by Staff Report

The data has been analyzed ahead of Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Phoenix Raceway (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), and if the metrics suggest one thing in particular, it is this: expect the usual suspects to race up front in the desert.

Saturday’s qualifying session proved just that, with Team Penske’s Joey Logano — a four-time Phoenix winner — capturing the Busch Light Pole Award. And while Racing Insights believes the three-time NASCAR Cup Series champion will leverage that starting position into a top-five result, back-to-back Phoenix spring winner Christopher Bell is predicted to finish atop the field to claim the triumph once more. Here is how the rest of the field stacks up heading into the 1-mile Arizona contest on Sunday.

RELATED: Full starting lineup | Phoenix preview

DRIVERS TO WATCH

KYLE LARSON: The defending champion — who claimed the 2025 crown at this very track barely four months ago — has to be one of the leading contenders, and not just because of that particular tidbit. Larson was one of only five drivers to finish inside the top 10 in both 2025 Phoenix races and was the only driver to finish inside the top five in both contests. Larson’s 216 laps led at Phoenix in the Next Gen era ranks sixth among all pilots, and his 9.25 average finish during that span additionally ranks third overall.

DANIEL SUÁREZ: A solid start to the 2026 season might very well continue in Phoenix, per the metrics, with the No. 7 Spire Motorsports driver projected to tally a top 10. Though Phoenix, statistically speaking, isn’t a particularly strong track for the Mexico native — with only four top-10 finishes in 18 Cup starts — there might be a different vibe this time around; Suárez logged the fastest speed during Saturday’s practice session and carried that over into qualifying. As such, he will start Sunday from fourth. Momentum is certainly on his side; Suárez’s 14.3 average finish so far ranks eighth among the full-time field.

AUSTIN CINDRIC: If there is a driver who might outperform his projected metrics at Phoenix, it could very well be Logano’s Team Penske teammate in Cindric. Though the model has him finishing 22nd, Cindric, like Suárez, brought a fast machine to the track on Saturday; Cindric tallied the fifth-fastest speed during practice and carried it over to qualifying, starting just outside the front row (third). Cindric’s 19 stage points collected thus far in 2026 are tied for sixth most, and for a driver currently 31st in the standings, every point matters. Could strategy be shaped around this approach, or will Saturday’s speed translate into Sunday and create something more?

FULL PROJECTED RESULTS FOR 2026 STRAIGHT TALK WIRELESS 500 (3:30 P.M. ET, FS1)

FINISH	CAR NUMBER	DRIVER
1	20	Christopher Bell
2	5	Kyle Larson
3	12	Ryan Blaney
4	22	Joey Logano
5	24	William Byron
6	11	Denny Hamlin
7	17	Chris Buescher
8	1	Ross Chastain
9	9	Chase Elliott
10	7	Daniel Suárez
11	6	Brad Keselowski
12	45	Tyler Reddick
13	71	Michael McDowell
14	60	Ryan Preece
15	23	Bubba Wallace
16	21	Josh Berry
17	54	Ty Gibbs
18	8	Kyle Busch
19	77	Carson Hocevar
20	19	Chase Briscoe
21	4	Noah Gragson
22	2	Austin Cindric
23	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
24	34	Todd Gilliland
25	3	Austin Dillon
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek
27	97	Shane van Gisbergen
28	16	AJ Allmendinger
29	41	Cole Custer
30	38	Zane Smith
31	43	Erik Jones
32	10	Ty Dillon
33	35	Riley Herbst
34	88	Connor Zilisch
35	51	Cody Ware
36	48	Anthony Alfredo
37	33	Austin Hill

Posted on March 7, 2026March 8, 2026 by Zack Albert

Track: Phoenix Raceway
Location: Avondale, Arizona
Track length: 1 mile
When: 3:30 p.m. ET
Where to tune in: FS1, HBO Max, FOX One, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Race purse: $11,233,037
Race distance: 312 laps | 312 miles
Stages: 60 | 185 | 312
Sunday’s starting lineup | Cup Series pit-stall assignments

Reddick seeks history with a desert 4-by-4

AVONDALE, Ariz. — Despite going 3-for-3 to start the NASCAR Cup Series season, Tyler Reddick dismisses the notion that he’s something of a superhero. The roll he’s on and his high stature in the early standings, however, suggest that the cape might fit.

All eyes in the desert will be focused on Reddick’s No. 45 Toyota at Phoenix Raceway as he strives to write more history with a fourth consecutive win to start the year. The Daytona 500 champion and 23XI Racing teammate Bubba Wallace rank a well-cushioned 1-2 in the early standings, with hopes of stretching that margin in the Arizona mile’s 60th Cup Series race.

A fairly harmless spin by Reddick during Saturday’s practice at Phoenix Raceway stirred the notion that some potential vulnerability might exist in Sunday’s Straight Talk Wireless 500, but there’s evident momentum for the 30-year-old star from the dizzying streak he’s authored so far.

“It’s hard to put in words. It’s wild,” Reddick said before Saturday’s preliminary sessions. “I think I’ve said it multiple times, right, you have the hope. I’ve told you guys I’ve had hopes and dreams of just being a Cup driver one day, that hopefully that would happen, and here we are. That’s happened. And yeah, you never know who you’re gonna drive for, but I never would have, again, in my wildest dreams thought I’d be representing Jordan Brand and drive for Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin. So yeah, it’s really cool to see. A lot of messages I’m trying to get back to. Everyone inside Airspeed’s just super-pumped and their head’s where they need to be. Like we’re excited, we’ve won three races, but everyone’s really hungry. We’re not satisfied.”

Maintaining that intensity level is the smart play, especially with the rest of the Cup Series grid eager to pierce the win column in the just-started campaign. Reddick is 70 points clear of Wallace, but several others slot closer behind, and some usual front-runners aim to reverse sluggish starts. Phoenix will help to tell the tale of just how close the others are — or aren’t — to the early benchmark Reddick has set.

“Pretty far away right now,” joked Ryan Blaney, who became the most recent Phoenix winner by prevailing for Team Penske in last season’s finale. “… Yeah, I think we’re close, and I think they’ve been doing an amazing job. Like, you can’t really take anything away from that group. The competitor in me is like, ‘dang, they’re kicking our butt every week,’ but then also, the same competitor in me is, you have to respect what they’re doing and the run that they’ve been on, but I think we’re close. Look forward to this weekend, kind of getting out there and seeing what we’ve got at an oval, and we’ll see, but I think we’re closer than people think.”

If any group has the potential to break up the Reddick monopoly, it’s the Penske bunch, which has its own recent run of success at Phoenix. Three-time Cup champion Joey Logano made a preliminary throw of the gauntlet by winning the Busch Light Pole Award for Sunday’s 312-lapper, and his Team Penske mates Austin Cindric and Blaney both qualified among the top five. Christopher Bell has his own Phoenix-specific streak going, with two straight wins in this race.

They’ll all face a race with variables — a returning Goodyear tire setup that produced trouble in Saturday’s practice and went heavy on wear when it debuted here last November, plus a slight uptick in horsepower from the 2026 rules configuration. They’ll also try to make some sense of the volatile nature of the standings, which have jumbled the natural order of things after a three-race opener of two drafting tracks and a road course.

The next seven events — including Sunday’s — will take place at tracks that appear later this year in the 10-race Chase postseason. Unlocking the answers for which teams are the contenders and which need improvement, Logano says, may happen sooner than that.

“Anytime you get back from Vegas, you’ll have a pretty good idea of strengths and weaknesses, of where teams are at,” said Logano, pointing to next weekend’s race at the 1.5-mile Nevada speedway. “So yeah, I don’t think we’ve got the full report card yet. Some pretty odd tracks to start — Daytona, sure; Atlanta, pretty unique; and then COTA for a road course. Like we haven’t been to Phoenix and Vegas yet. Then, when you get to Martinsville, that might be your last bit of the report card, where you get kind of everything. Darlington, it’ll be interesting with the downforce package there and horsepower, that’ll be different. So we’ll have a good report card of where we are, strengths and weaknesses, and the points will start to average out a little bit to where, like I said, the cream always rises to the top, right? Eventually, when you average it out over the first 10 to 15 races, I think things clear up quite a bit.”

MORE: Schedule, TV info: Phoenix

In the details …

By virtue of Tyler Reddick’s undefeated record to start 2026, 23XI Racing boasts the best average finish among all NASCAR Cup Series teams through three races. But the teams just behind 23XI feature some serious muscle from underdog teams, upending the majority of NASCAR’s typical powerhouse organizations. Courtesy of NASCAR Insights on X, a look at the five teams that have combined for the best average finishes so far, as well as their best representatives:

Teams	Average finish	Driver with team's best average finish
23XI Racing	12.40	Tyler Reddick -- 1.0
Kaulig Racing	14.33	AJ Allmendinger -- 13.3
RFK Racing	15.56	Brad Keselowski -- 14.0
Spire Motorsports	15.89	Daniel Suárez -- 14.3
Hendrick Motorsports	19.00	Chase Elliott -- 7.3

Speed reads

Race-day essentials:

• Phoenix hub: Key information, links, results | Read more
• Paint Scheme Preview: Fresh designs for the Arizona desert | View gallery
• Hauler Talk: Inside Snider’s approval to substitute for Bowman at COTA | Listen now
• ‘Full Speed’ on Prime: Relive the Daytona 500 with in-depth access | How to watch
• Power Rankings: Cup Series’ top 20 drivers after COTA | This week’s ranks
• NASCAR Classics: Inside the video vault from Phoenix | Watch now

Contributing: Zach Sturniolo | NASCAR.com

Posted on March 7, 2026 by Holly Cain

AVONDALE, Ariz. — Denny Hamlin managed a smile but conceded returning to Phoenix Raceway still stung a bit for the veteran, who dominated the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship in November — leading 208 of the 319 laps — only to miss out on the title after a strategy call didn’t pan out on an overtime restart.

The 45-year-old 60-race winner returns to Phoenix ranked 23rd in the standings and will start his No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota 11th on the grid for Sunday’s race.

RELATED: Cup Series lineup | At-track photos

“I’m still angry at the track a little bit,” said Hamlin, who had looked to have finally claimed the first championship of his highly decorated two-decade career. “But the track doesn’t have a soul, so it can’t feel the things I feel.

“You’ve still got to come in here and start the whole process over again and do all the right things and see where the result pans out this time. Haven’t had a whole lot of races since we were here for the championship, so just trying to get acclimated with where we are at this point and seeing if we can we replicate some of the magic we had.”

MORE: NASCAR at Phoenix hub

In 41 career Cup Series races at Phoenix, Hamlin has prospered, winning twice, tallying 17 top fives and compiling 24 top-10 results. His 1,147 laps led all-time at the track rank third among all drivers, and he was one of only five drivers to finish inside the top 10 in both Phoenix races in 2025.

Posted on March 7, 2026March 7, 2026 by Zack Albert

AVONDALE, Ariz. – AJ Allmendinger was fresh and fit in the Phoenix Raceway media center Saturday morning, a stark contrast from the picture he illustrated just six days earlier. When the TV camera’s glare last captured him, the Kaulig Racing veteran was flat on his back on Circuit of The Americas’ pit road post-race last Sunday, drained and dehydrated from a cool-suit failure.

The 44-year-old driver was evaluated and released from the infield care center, but said he bounced back in relatively short order.

“All good to go,” Allmendinger said. “Just took a little bit of fluids and some ice, and I was fine back on the plane.”

Drivers will aim to keep their cool in the desert heat in Sunday’s Straight Talk Wireless 500 (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) at Phoenix Raceway. The forecast for the fourth race of the NASCAR Cup Series season is for sunshine and temperatures tipping into the upper 80s — the warmest day of a packed racing weekend at the 1-mile oval.

Cooling systems and driver comfort came into focus after last Sunday’s event at the Austin, Texas, road course, where a handful of drivers experienced issues. Prime among them was Allmendinger, who gutted out a ninth-place finish that’s helped lift him to eighth in the early Cup Series standings.

Cool shirts aren’t new technology, and one of the earliest examples in stock-car racing was pioneered by the innovative Paul Goldsmith in the 1960s. Some of the same principles from previous versions still apply, with cold water coursing through the suit’s tubing.

“Back in the day, the cool-shirt thing has been around for a really long time,” said Chase Elliott, third in the Cup Series standings entering Phoenix. “For those that probably don’t know that, because it’s kind of a semi-new thing in this garage, but it’s always been available, probably throughout my whole racing career, but they always had a bad rap of failing, and that was why a lot of guys didn’t run them for years and years and years. And I think the technology has gotten a lot better, and that’s why a lot of us have chose to try them at different tracks.”

It’s when the system goes awry that the warmth of the cockpit gives its full force, and the circulating water heats up to scalding levels.

“I think there’s two parts to it,” Allmendinger said. “Like, the physical part of it is, you’re obviously hot and dehydrated and everything kind of starts cramping, and you don’t have a lot of strength, is the first half of it. But it’s almost worse on the mental side of it, because you just know you’re trapped, right? I mean, I guess at the end of the day, you can get out if you want, but I’m gonna do everything I can to maximize the best that I can for my race team, especially when the day is going fairly well. So I think that’s almost harder sometimes, is the mental side of it. It’s like the anxiety builds up where you’re in this tiny little room, and it’s hot and you’re strapped down and you can’t move and there’s nowhere to go.”

It may not seem like it in toasty Phoenix, but we’re still in the last throes of winter with the warmer spring and summer months ahead on the NASCAR schedule. Spiking temperatures await, and the pressure on cooling systems to perform will be greater.

MORE: At-track photos: Phoenix | Fantasy Fastlane

The recent rash of cool-suit trouble has been enough to prompt William Byron, for one, to explore alternatives.

“Definitely when it works, it’s great,” said Byron, who noted that he’s regularly used the cool-shirt system since his Cup career began in 2018. “But I feel like there’s definitely a handful, if not more times, that it doesn’t work. That shirt is very insulated. I was at a Martinsville test one time and was wearing it and didn’t turn it on for most of the day, and just started to feel sick because just the way it insulates your body and kind of has the opposite effect when it’s not on. So yeah, I think I’m open to other options. We used to just have blowers in the car that would just blow air on your back. So definitely, we’ve talked about looking at other options and seeing what’s out there. It’s effective, but at the same time, if it doesn’t work or it doesn’t work as well, like I said, it’s pretty insulated. It’s like wearing a coat.”

Posted on March 7, 2026March 8, 2026 by Holly Cain

AVONDALE, Ariz. — Team Penske’s Joey Logano claimed his first pole position of the 2026 season Saturday afternoon at Phoenix Raceway, setting a fast lap of 135.537 mph around the 1-mile oval that will host Sunday’s Straight Talk Wireless 500 (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1, HBO Max, FOX One, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

The fast lap gives the driver of the No. 22 Team Penske Ford Mustang his 38th career pole position. The three-time NASCAR Cup Series champ will share the front row with two-time and reigning series champion Kyle Larson, who was a slight 0.017 seconds slower in his No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet.

It was a strong Penske showing for the team, which is celebrating its 60th anniversary racing season. Austin Cindric (third) and last November’s Phoenix race winner Ryan Blaney (fifth), Logano’s teammates, also earned top-five starting positions.

RELATED: Qualifying results | At-track photos

“All three Penske cars are fast,” said Logano, who reminded that it was a Penske Phoenix pole sweep with IndyCar teammate David Malukas claiming pole position for Saturday’s IndyCar race. In fact, all three Penske IndyCar drivers — also Scott McLaughlin and Josef Newgarden — will be on the team’s NASCAR drivers’ pit boxes Sunday.

“Our three cars and the three IndyCars all looked solid in practice yesterday. Now it’s just time to execute the race, which is the hard part.

And execute Logano will certainly have to achieve, not taking his pole position for granted.

“You never know anymore (if you will win pole position),” Logano said. “When you have a longer practice like we used to have and put a fresh set of tires on and make a mock run and see the pace. But these days you don’t know. You just go out there and go as fast as you can, and you don’t know if you’ll be 30th or first. It’s hard to say before the run starts.

“I felt like if I didn’t screw up the speed was in the car and I just had to make sure I got all of it out. The speed is there for the Penske cars right now.”

Championship points leader Tyler Reddick spun his No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota in practice but didn’t hit anything — recovering to post a solid eighth-place position in the qualifying session minutes later. Brad Keselowski had a more extreme experience, hitting the wall with his No. 6 Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing Ford — unable to qualify and forced to start from the rear of the 37-car field.

Defending race winner Christopher Bell qualified 12th in the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota.

Anthony Alfredo, who is driving the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet this week for Alex Bowman, qualified 31st. However, he did post the best 10-lap speed average among the four Hendrick drivers in practice.

MORE: Practice results

Of note, Spire Motorsports teammates Daniel Suarez (No. 7 Chevrolet) and Carson Hocevar (No. 77 Chevrolet) were fastest in practice. They will roll off fourth and seventh, respectively, on Sunday.

Posted on March 6, 2026 by Holly Cain

AVONDALE, Ariz. – Both the NTT IndyCar Series drivers and NASCAR drivers were excited for the Phoenix doubleheader racing weekend, and for many of NASCAR’s best, it’s a rare opportunity to watch the open-wheelers in person. The NTT IndyCar Series races Saturday at 3 p.m. ET on FOX just before the NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series.

Former NASCAR Cup Series champion Blaney, whose 60th Anniversary Team Penske organization fields three cars in both series, was particularly excited to watch an IndyCar Series race in person – something he said he’s only done one other time when the two series raced together on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course. His teammate, fellow NASCAR champion Joey Logano, said he’s never seen the open-wheelers on an oval.

“I loved it when we did the doubleheader at Indy a few years ago,” Blaney said, adding he’d love to see the two premier series share a race weekend more often.

“I would love it. I think it’s great for the racing fan. I’ve never really understood when people say I only watch NASCAR or I only watch IndyCar, if you’re a fan of racing, you’re a fan of racing. And this brings everyone together. I think the crowd for both days will be fantastic because it is a doubleheader weekend, and I’d love to see more.”

Agrees his teammate Logano, “I think it’s great for both sports. Great for IndyCar, great for NASCAR and great for the fans to see two different disciplines. I think it’s just going to grow both of them.”

Posted on March 6, 2026March 7, 2026 by Staff Report

See where your favorite NASCAR Cup Series and O’Reilly Auto Parts Series drivers will pit this weekend at Phoenix Raceway.

NASCAR Cup Series

NASCAR Cup Series Straight Talk Wireless 500 on Sunday at Phoenix Raceway (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

RELATED: Phoenix weekend schedule | How to watch NASCAR on FS1

NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series

NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series GOVX 200 on Saturday at Phoenix Raceway (7:30 p.m. ET, The CW, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Posted on March 6, 2026March 6, 2026 by Zack Albert

AVONDALE, Ariz. – Anthony Alfredo says he realizes the magnitude of the opportunity ahead of him this weekend – an appointment for a spot start in the NASCAR Cup Series with one of its strongest teams. It’s the circumstances that led to this moment that make it bittersweet.

Alfredo will make his first Cup Series start of the season Sunday at Phoenix Raceway, substituting for an ailing Alex Bowman in Hendrick Motorsports’ No. 48 Chevrolet. Bowman exited last weekend’s event at Circuit of The Americas, giving way to relief driver Myatt Snider after falling ill midrace, and his team announced Thursday that he would miss Sunday’s Straight Talk Wireless 500 (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, FOX One, HBO Max) after a vertigo diagnosis.

Insert Alfredo, who has carved out a journeyman’s career as an O’Reilly Auto Parts Series regular with 43 Cup Series starts on his resume with lesser-funded teams. He’s also established a level of trust with the Rick Hendrick-owned organization, which has relied on him for extensive work with the racing simulator – especially at Phoenix, where he’s regularly helped the team prepare for Championship Weekend in years past.

Getting a call-up this weekend represents a significant step upward from Alfredo’s most recent Cup efforts, but the 26-year-old says his concern for Bowman’s well-being tempers his anticipation for a big-league break.

“It’s just weird, right? I don’t want to see anyone in the position Alex is in, so it’s hard for me to be excited,” Alfredo said. “That makes it certainly disappointing, because a lot of people are asking me how excited I am, and I’m not excited that I have to fill in for someone who’s not able to be in their own car this weekend. But it is, of course, a huge opportunity for me to go out there and do a good job and maybe turn some heads, but I don’t even feel like I have to prove anything to anybody. Honestly, I don’t think they would have picked me if they didn’t think I could do it right, so it’s not about that. I think it’s more going out there and just do what’s asked of me and doing a good job behind the wheel filling in.

“But yeah, it’s certainly exciting, a big moment for me. I think my career has been challenging as far as the on-track side of things. Working with them as a sim driver has been a privilege, and I take a lot of pride in what I do for them. It’s a lot of effort, and I sit in a dark room with no windows all day during the week, but I choose to do it because I enjoy it, and I like seeing them get better.”

Alfredo was in the Cup Series garage early Friday, wearing one of Bowman’s Ally firesuits – “That was kind of a lucky fit, I guess,” he said. The ergonomics were also a close match to Bowman’s setup, and Alfredo worked with the crew to swap over his interior equipment and fine-tune his seat positioning.

No. 48 crew chief Blake Harris said that the team already has plenty of familiarity with Alfredo, who was also on standby last year at Mexico City after Bowman experienced back pain from a heavy crash at Michigan International Speedway one week earlier. That comfort level, though, spans all four Hendrick teams.

“Approach-wise, Anthony already does a ton of sim work for our company, does that every week and has probably got, I would imagine, more sim laps than probably anybody here,” Harris told NASCAR.com. “So that’s a huge plus. He’s done lots of prep work for Phoenix in general, especially going years back for the Phoenix championship race, so feel really good about that and its correlation, and he’s as prepared as he could be for this place, I think, as anybody could. So, yeah, we’re just going to focus on going and executing a full, clean weekend all around as a team, and it gives us an opportunity to just try to go get some base hits here and march our way back forward in the points.”

Even just three races in and with the standings in flux, the points deficit that Harris references is tough to dismiss. Bowman and the No. 48 team rank 36th in the Cup Series drivers’ and owners’ standings – last among chartered teams – after crashes in the first two races (Daytona, EchoPark) and then last week’s abbreviated run at COTA. It’s that sluggish start that has the No. 48 Chevy parked in a garage stall far from the front-runners in the Cup Series paddock.

MORE: Cup Series standings

That in mind, Alfredo’s goals are aligned with the team’s: clean execution and an emphasis on the fundamentals. The personal aspirations that come with it are secondary.

“You know, it’s not an audition. It’s more about filling in and doing a good job for this team,” Alfredo says. “So I’m focused on just executing well for them, and if something comes of it down the road, then that would be awesome. But most importantly, I have a job to do, and I’m focused on that.”

Hendrick Motorsports president Jeff Andrews told SiriusXM NASCAR Radio on Friday that Bowman’s health issue had emerged “out of nowhere,” saying that his vertigo diagnosis was unrelated to concussion symptoms that forced him to miss time in seasons past. Andrews noted that the driver’s seat for the No. 48 Chevy would be awaiting his return when his condition improves, pledging the organization’s support.

That backing was also evident from the crew level last weekend at the Austin, Texas road course, where Bowman was told over the team radio to do what he thought was in his best interests, preserving his wellness above all.

“I think it’s pretty clear from the top down. The most important thing for our drivers is their health,” Harris said. “I could tell, just by the radio stuff that I got back from him and kind of watching all his inputs, that he was kind of degrading and not in a good spot. I know how his head works too, right? He’s worried about points and what that’s going to mean for everything, and as soon as I knew there was no more to be had from what we were doing, I wanted to make it clear to him that he knew he could get out of the car whenever he needed to, and we would work around that however we needed to – and we stand by that for this weekend, right? If he’s not comfortable and ready to get back in the car yet, we want him healthy whenever that is.”

Posted on March 6, 2026March 6, 2026 by Nathan Solomon

Three weeks into the 2026 campaign, the NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series has provided no shortage of drama and storylines. From a popular first-time winner to some surprises toward the top of the standings (and maybe some rivalries formed along the way), this season is already as compelling as ever.

See what’s stood out so far in the O’Reilly Series and the storylines that are emerging heading into Saturday’s race at Phoenix Raceway (7:30 p.m. ET, The CW, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Hot start for RCR … will it stick?

It probably shouldn’t be a surprise that Richard Childress Racing paces the early standings, but here we are again.

Austin Hill has a 28-point lead over teammate Jesse Love, marking the second year in a row the duo is 1-2 after three races, and the fourth consecutive season Hill leads after the third race. The 31-year-old from Winston, Georgia, won the opener at Daytona for the fourth time in five years, and quietly came home second last weekend at Circuit of The Americas. Sandwiched in between: a 12th-place finish at EchoPark Speedway. Hill nearly went back-to-back to open 2026, but contact battling for the win on the final lap with Ross Chastain at EchoPark resulted in a long slide through the final set of corners. Had he won at the Atlanta-area drafting track, we could be talking about a 50+ point lead for the series veteran.

For Love, he’s the only driver with top 10s in all three races thus far. He’s earned the fourth-most stage points and owns the second-best average running position (5.3, only to Hill).

But the question is: can this be sustained?

Eleven of Hill’s 15 career victories are at drafting tracks. Two of Love’s three are as well, but the outlier came last fall at Phoenix, the site of his championship triumph. But as the season progresses, even as both drivers have shown sustained consistency in a postseason format where that matters, we’ll see if the duo can bank more wins at traditional tracks to stave off the rest of the field.

MORE: How to watch O’Reilly Series racing on The CW

Is the dam broken for Sheldon Creed?

The monkey finally flew off Sheldon Creed’s back.

After Hill’s final-turn slide at EchoPark, that (almost quite literally) opened the door for Creed to score his highly anticipated first victory in the O’Reilly Series. The 28-year-old from Alpine, California, had recorded 15 runner-up finishes — a record for most before scoring a win. He’s been with three different organizations since his full-time O’Reilly career began in 2022, and the former Craftsman Truck Series champion began wondering if he was good enough to compete at the national series level.

Now that he’s scored that elusive first victory, what’s next?

With newfound confidence in his sails, the sky is seemingly the limit for the O’Reilly Series veteran. While 2025 was statistically a down year, with half as many top fives (8) logged as in 2024 (16), he’s shown the ability to succeed at all types of tracks. His 11.7 average finish in 2024 placed him fourth-best among full-time competitors, with two of the three ahead of him no longer in O’Reilly competition.

With Haas Factory Team in Year 1 under the Chevrolet camp, all the ingredients are there for a prove-it type season for Creed and the No. 00 team.

Sean Gardner | Getty Images

Early surprises

Through the opening races of 2026, a few surprise names have thrust themselves into the early mix — and as it stands, the provisional Chase cutoff.

Parker Retzlaff — in his first season wheeling the Viking Motorsports No. 99 Chevrolet — sits ninth in points, jumping as high as fifth after a runner-up at EchoPark. He’s scored the eighth-most stage points thus far, in the mix with some of the top contenders from championship organizations. Retzlaff is no stranger to maximizing his equipment, though. He’s earned 16 career top 10s in 110 starts, finishing as high as 16th in points three seasons ago with Jordan Anderson Racing. According to Racing Insights, he’s also one of three drivers with 11 or more consecutive races while running at the finish.

Alpha Prime Racing’s Brennan Poole is in the same boat; the series veteran is currently 12th in the standings. That, however, could’ve easily been much higher. Poole had a shot to win Daytona, but on the final lap, got shuffled to 12th going for Victory Lane. He came home 19th at EchoPark and flew under the radar en route to his first top 10 of the season at COTA. Poole owns a pair of top-10 points finishes from 2016 and 2017, and in two full-time seasons with the Tommy Joe Martins-owned organization, he has placed 16th and 19th overall, respectively.

MORE: O’Reilly Series standings

How does Corey Day move forward?

With a pair of top fives in three races, it’s been an overall strong start for Corey Day in his first full-time season with Hendrick Motorsports.

But he’s made plenty of noise along the way.

A sprint car star transitioning to the NASCAR ranks, Day, 20, was under scrutiny multiple times two weeks ago at EchoPark, and again in the final laps at COTA. On Lap 5 at EchoPark, Day and Ryan Sieg made contact, triggering a multicar crash down the frontstretch before a later run-in with Carson Kvapil and Justin Allgaier battling for the lead. Last week, jockeying for top-five positioning, Day misjudged the exit of a corner and sent Connor Zilisch around just before the esses.

Day later owned up to the Zilisch mistake during an interview with The CW, but in a sense, the dirt-racing prodigee could have a target on his back moving forward. As the season progresses and he heads to tracks for just the first or second time, it’ll be about balancing aggression as he develops a brand-new race craft.

Jonathan Bachman | Getty Images

Phoenix: A statistical stronghold for JGR

While JR Motorsports’ Justin Allgaier often comes to mind at Phoenix, it’s been Joe Gibbs Racing as a whole that’s dominated the 1-mile desert oval.

According to Racing Insights, the organization has won one of the two annual races each season dating back to 2018, including the last three springtime events. JGR has team records in wins, top fives, top 10s, laps led and stage wins compared to any other track. Including Taylor Gray’s pole on Friday, JGR’s 24 poles are an O’Reilly Series best for most top starting spots by any team at any track.

While Aric Almirola, the defending winner, isn’t in the field, the four-car stronghold still has a strong case to keep the streak alive. Brandon Jones is a former Phoenix winner with the organization in 2020. Gray, in two starts, has a pair of top 10s. William Sawalich won the pole in fall 2024, and Brent Crews, making his second career start, has high expectations for his rookie season.

So will Saturday’s race at Phoenix be JGR vs. the field? The stats prove it very well could be.

Posted on March 6, 2026March 7, 2026 by Dustin Albino

Editor’s Note: Keep tabs on this page for lineup advice following qualifying, including changes you should consider.

Fantasy Update: New Cup Series season, same Team Penske speed at a flat, 1-mile oval. All three of its Fords slotted into the top five in qualifying, with Joey Logano winning the Busch Light Pole Award. Meanwhile, Austin Cindric and Ryan Blaney gapped the field over the long haul in practice. The lone switch in my lineup is bumping Cindric in over William Byron, knowing the No. 24 car has stage points in 21 consecutive Phoenix stages. I also flipped Logano ahead of Hamlin in the head-to-head battle.

My lineup: Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Austin Cindric.
Garage: Denny Hamlin.

After an eventful first three races to begin the 2026 Cup Series season in which Tyler Reddick went perfect, the rest of the field is in catch-up mode. Up next is Phoenix Raceway, where the series’ best tend to shine. Team Penske and Joe Gibbs Racing win frequently in the desert, but there are a trio of Hendrick Motorsports teammates that are formidable here. You also can’t count out the scorching hot 23XI Racing, which continues to be the disruptor of the “big three.”

Returning to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can come play along. It’s a season-long points battle introduced in 2024 where strategy is the primary emphasis. With 36 chartered cars and 36 races on the 2026 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.

RELATED: NASCAR Fantasy Live hub | Play 36 for 36

MUST START

Driver: Ryan Blaney, No. 12 Team Penske Ford
Selections remaining: 8
Comment: After being the model of consistency at Phoenix, Blaney finally broke through to Victory Lane in the series’ most recent trip to the desert. The 2023 Cup champion has 14 top-10 finishes in 20 Phoenix starts, including eight top-five efforts in the last nine races. Five of those have been finishes of second or better.

Driver: Christopher Bell, No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Selections remaining: 9
Comment: Bell has won the spring race at Phoenix two years in a row in dominant fashion. Phoenix is only one of two tracks on the circuit where Bell has multiple victories, and he has cracked the top five in three of the last four visits.

Driver: William Byron, No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Selections remaining: 10
Comment: While Byron has come up short in recent championship quests at Phoenix, he runs up front like clockwork. In the eight Next Gen races at the 1-mile oval, he has an average running position of 4.9 and has won a stage in five races. Dating back to 2020, he has earned stage points in 21 consecutive stages at Phoenix, the longest streak at a track in history.

Meg Oliphant | Getty Images

DRIVERS TO AVOID

Driver: Chase Briscoe, No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Selections remaining: 10
Comment: The No. 19 team is off to a sluggish start through three races in 2026, and that trend could continue at Phoenix. Briscoe had multiple tire failures here in the fall – Goodyear is bringing the same tire – and only has one top 10 in the previous five Phoenix races.

Driver: Bubba Wallace, No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota
Selections remaining: 9
Comment: Momentum is at an all-time high at 23XI Racing with Tyler Reddick winning the first three races of 2026. Phoenix has been a weak spot for Wallace, though, with only three top-10 finishes in 16 starts.

Logan Riely | Getty Images

SLEEPERS OF THE WEEK

Driver: Chris Buescher, No. 17 RFK Racing Ford
Selections remaining: 10
Comment: It wasn’t long ago when Phoenix was considered one of Buescher’s worst venues on the schedule. The Texas native has turned that around over the last three seasons, with four top-10 finishes in the last five Phoenix races, including a trio of top fives.

Driver: Josh Berry, No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford
Selections remaining: 10
Comment: For years, Team Penske has had a knack for flat ovals, and Phoenix fits into that criteria. Through an affiliation with Penske, expect Berry to be in the mix on Sunday, just as he was in this race last year with a fourth-place effort. Phoenix is the only track that he has at least three top-10 finishes at, coming in just five attempts.

James Gilbert | Getty Images

FEATURED MATCHUPS

Tyler Reddick vs. Kyle Larson
Pick: Larson
Comment: With the amount of success Larson has had at Phoenix, including winning a pair of championships, it could be argued that he should be listed as a must-start. His 11 top-five efforts and 15 top-10 finishes are his most at a singular track. As Denny Hamlin pointed out post-race at Circuit of The Americas, Reddick’s numbers aren’t the best at Phoenix, with a pair of top fives in 12 starts.

Ryan Blaney vs. Christopher Bell
Pick: Blaney
Comment: As noted earlier, both drivers excel at Phoenix, combining to win three of the last four races. Both organizations are elite at flat race tracks, though the upperhand should go to Penske. Blaney is always in contention for the win at the end of Phoenix races.

Denny Hamlin vs. Joey Logano
Pick: Hamlin
Comment: This matchup should go to Toyota. In November, Hamlin had his heart broken at Phoenix, leading 208 laps but losing the championship battle when a caution flew with just three laps remaining in regulation. Logano has a series-high four victories here and leads all drivers with laps led in the Next Gen car at Phoenix (379).

Ross Chastain vs. Chris Buescher
Pick: Buescher
Comment: Of this pairing, Chastain is the driver who has visited Victory Lane, but Buescher has been more consistent in the Next Gen car. The No. 1 team has four top-10 finishes in the eight Next Gen races, while Buescher has the same number of top 10s in the last five races alone.

MY LINEUP

Starting five: Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson.
Garage pick: Joey Logano

36 FOR 36

Pick: Ryan Blaney, No. 12 Team Penske Ford.
Comment: Having two drafting-style races and a road course make up the first three races of the season can make Phoenix a tricky place to pick. No team will have shown their true potential at a standard oval until this weekend. Naturally, Penske is strong at Phoenix and tracks alike, so Blaney will be my starting point entering the week, though it could be altered after practice.