An emotional Alex Bowman could only shake his head and give kudos to the crew of his No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet following a dramatic victory over Denny Hamlin Sunday in the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway.

Bowman took the lead for the first time all race on a restart with 10 laps remaining and easily pulled away from Hamlin, who had been the day’s most dominant driver. Bowman’s .381-second winning margin earned the 27-year old his first victory of the season, third of his career and first ever on a short track. He is the eighth different race winner in nine NASCAR Cup Series races this season. 

“To be honest with you, we were terrible on short runs,” said Bowman, who had to overcome a pit-road speeding penalty as well.  “We restarted third and I’m like, if we get out of here with a solid top-five we’ll be good. We overcame a lot today. 

“I don’t know if [crew chief] Greg [Ives] pumped the pressures way up or what he did, but that’s more grip than I’ve ever had in a race car at Richmond and it worked out really well.”

RELATED: Race results | At-track photos

It was an especially tough runner-up finish for Hamlin, considering how strong he’d been all day, and all season. Hamlin, who swept the two stages wins and led a race high 207 of the 400 laps, had to be thinking he may have finally secured his first victory of 2021. He held the race lead taking the green flag for that last restart, only to be passed easily by Bowman.

The second-place finish is the eighth top-five finish in the opening nine races for the Joe Gibbs Racing driver Hamlin – an all-time record for top fives to start the season without a win. 

“We just didn’t take off quite as good there at the end,” an obviously disappointed Hamlin said. “I tried to warm it up and do everything that I could – just the 48 (Alex Bowman) had a little more on those last few laps and I couldn’t hold the bottom.

“Once he got the position, we were just shut down there. Great job by this FedEx Ground team. First and foremost, we want to think of all of the families in Indy right now. Awful tragedy to happen there. Our thoughts and prayers are with these names. We will get them. We will keep digging. We are dominating – just have to finish it.”

RELATED: Denny Hamlin reacts to runner-up finish | Joey Logano: ‘Dang it’

Team Penske’s Joey Logano, who led 49 laps and for much of the closing portion of the race looked as he would settle the trophy with Hamlin, instead finished third, followed by Hamlin’s JGR teammates Christopher Bell and Martin Truex Jr., who led 108 laps.

Stewart-Haas Racing’s Aric Almirola finished sixth – his best effort of the season, followed by Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron, JGR’s Kyle Busch, Wood Brothers Racing’s Matt DiBenedetto and Richard Childress Racing’s Austin Dillon to round out the top 10.

The late-race caution – and the drama it created – was especially ironic considering most of the event had gone caution free.  

Early on it was a duel between the Gibbs teammates and then Logano, who took the battle to Hamlin late. 

“The adjustments they made on that final pit stop definitely made it start firing off really well,” Logano said of Bowman. “He started to pay the penalty the last couple laps but he was so far out, it didn’t matter. 

“We were just so close with the Shell Pennzoil Mustang and wanted to get our Ford in victory lane here. We led some laps, made the pass on Denny Hamlin. He and I had a lot of fun with it going back and forth. 

“I just hate being that close,” Logano added. 

With his runner-up effort Hamlin holds a commanding 81-point lead over Truex and 82-point advantage over Logano in the championship standings.

The series’ next race is the GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on Sunday (2 p.m. ET, FOX, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

NOTE: The race winning No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet of Alex Bowman passed NASCAR’s post-race inspection and the race results are official. The No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet driven by William Byron and the No. 51 Petty Ware Racing Chevrolet driven by Cody Ware were each found to have one lugnut not safe and secure.

Which channels have NASCAR programming this week? We answer that and give the weekly NASCAR television listings here in the NASCAR TV schedule.

Note: All times are ET.

MORE: How to find NBCSN | Get the NBC Sports App | How to find FS1 | Get FOX Sports App

Monday, April 19
3:30 a.m., NASCAR Race Hub: Best of Radioactive — Richmond (re-air), FS1
4:30 a.m., NASCAR Cup Series: Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway (re-air), FS1
11 a.m., NASCAR Classics: 2011 Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Superspeedway (re-air), FS2
2 p.m., NASCAR Cup Series: Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway (re-air), FS2
6 p.m., NASCAR Race Hub, FS1
11 p.m., NASCAR Cup Series: Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway (re-air), FS1

Tuesday, April 20
6 a.m., NASCAR Race Hub: Best of Radioactive — Richmond (re-air), FS2
6 p.m., NASCAR Race Hub, FS1
7 p.m., NASCAR Presents: Trackhouse — Get Ready, FS1

On MRN:
7 p.m., NASCAR Live

Wednesday, April 21

6 p.m., NASCAR Race Hub, FS1
7 p.m., eNASCAR iRacing Pro Invitational Series: Talladega Superspeedway, FS1
10 p.m., eNASCAR iRacing Pro Invitational Series: Talladega Superspeedway (re-air), FS2
11:30 p.m., NASCAR Race Hub: Best of Radioactive — Richmond (re-air), FS2

Thursday, April 22
12:30 a.m., eNASCAR iRacing Pro Invitational Series: Talladega Superspeedway (re-air), FS1
2 a.m., NASCAR Classics: 2011 Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Superspeedway (re-air), FS1
5 a.m., NASCAR Race Hub: Best of Radioactive — Talladega, FS1
6 p.m., NASCAR Race Hub, FS1
6 p.m., Dale Jr. Download, NBCSN
11;30 p.m., eNASCAR iRacing Pro Invitational Series: Talladega Superspeedway (re-air), FS2

Friday, April 23
6 p.m., NASCAR Race Hub, FS1

Saturday, April 24
1 p.m., ARCA Menards Series: General Tire 200 at Talladega Superspeedway, FS1
3:30 p.m., NASCAR RaceDay: Xfinity Series, FOX
4 p.m., NASCAR Xfinity Series: Ag-Pro 300 at Talladega Superspeedway, FOX (Canada: TSN3, 5)
11 p.m., NASCAR Xfinity Series: Ag-Pro 300 at Talladega Superspeedway (re-air), FS1

On MRN:
1 p.m., ARCA Menards Series: General Tire 200 at Talladega Superspeedway
3:30 p.m., NASCAR Xfinity Series: Ag-Pro 300 at Talladega Superspeedway

Sunday, April 25
8 a.m., NASCAR Xfinity Series: Ag-Pro 300 at Talladega Superspeedway (re-air), FS2
11 a.m., eNASCAR iRacing Pro Invitational Series: Talladega Superspeedway (re-air), FS1
12:30 p.m., NASCAR RaceDay: Cup Series, FS1
1:30 p.m., NASCAR RaceDay: Cup Series, FOX
2 p.m., NASCAR Cup Series: GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway, FOX (Canada: TSN1, 5)
9:30 p.m., ARCA Menards Series: General Tire 200 at Talladega Superspeedway (re-air), FS2
11:30 p.m., NASCAR Cup Series: GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway (re-air), FS1

On MRN:
1 p.m., NASCAR Cup Series: GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway

Kevin Harvick has hit an impressive milestone this weekend as he tied Joe Nemechek atop the all-time list for NASCAR national series starts with the green flag waving for Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway, according to Racing Insights.

Nemechek and Harvick are now tied with a mark of 1,197 national series starts — a mark which Harvick stands to surpass next weekend at Talladega Superspeedway in the GEICO 500 on April 25 (2 p.m. ET on FOX, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Harvick also stands as NASCAR’s Iron Man — having not missed a Cup Series start since 2002 when he missed the spring Martinsville race. His consecutive starts streak stands at 685 with the start of today’s race.

Check out the list below of the top 10 drivers with the most national series starts (provided by Racing Insights).

Rank Driver Starts
T-1 Joe Nemechek 1,197
T-1 Kevin Harvick 1,197
3 Richard Petty 1,185
4 Mark Martin 1,143
5 Kyle Busch 1,094
6 Michael Waltrip 1,072
7 Morgan Shepherd 1,027
8 Terry Labonte 1,017
9 Jeff Burton 1,005
10 Dale Jarrett 998

Hickory Motor Speedway is dubbed “Birthplace of the NASCAR Stars.”

Rajah Caruth, an 18-year-old from Washington, D.C., is looking to continue the tradition of stars who have used success at the historic venue as a launching pad up the NASCAR ladder. He got a fast start Saturday night as the NASCAR Drive for Diversity development program driver put the No. 6 Sunoco Chevrolet for Rev Racing in Victory Lane.

Twice.

Caruth started fifth and took advantage of a mechanical issue with teammate Isabella Robusto under a late caution to earn a trip to Victory Lane. After starting eighth in the second feature, he completed the sweep.

“It’s pretty awesome,” Caruth said. “The first one, we were kind of right place at the right time. The second one, I feel like we out drove them. It was pretty fun.”

In the second feature, Gracie Trotter finished second, followed by Caruth’s Rev Racing teammates Robusto and Lavar Scott. Trotter, who became the first female to win in one of the ARCA Menards Series’ top series last year, is also a former NASCAR Drive for Diversity Development driver.

“There was definitely a little bit of confidence there,” Caruth said. “We started next to Gracie (on the final restart with 25 laps to go). We went into Turn 1, and I don’t think I’ve ever drove it deeper into one. And it stuck. That’s a testament to this team. They’re the best.”

According to Hickory, it’s the first time the track had two women finish in the top three in its Late Model Stock Car division.

In the first feature, Scott finished sixth, while Rev Racing’s Regina Sirvent was ninth and Robusto 11th.

Caruth comes from an iRacing background. A NASCAR fan growing up, he first earned attention through the eNASCAR Ignite Series – a grassroots youth racing platform that identifies drivers without access to traditional race tracks around the world.

Caruth is one of 10 drivers in the iRacing Pro Invitational Series Fan Vote to round out the field in next week’s virtual race at Talladega Superspeedway.

After earning a spot in the NASCAR Drive for Diversity Youth Driver Development Program in 2019 — the first driver from a majority iRacing background to be picked for the program — he drove in the NASCAR Advance Auto Parts Weekly Series last year. Caruth won his first career Late Model race last October at another historic NASCAR track: South Carolina’s Greenville-Pickens Speedway.

RELATED: Rajah Caruth wins first career Late Model race

“Growing up, I was really a student of the sport and a fan,” Caruth said. “To put my name in the books, not only winning at Greenville, but twice here, it means a lot.

“It means the world.”

This season, Caruth is driving in both the NASCAR Advance Auto Parts Weekly Series and the ARCA Menards Series. He finished fourth in the most recent ARCA Menards Series East race at 5 Flags Speedway in Pensacola, Florida, in February.

RELATED: Rajah Caruth ARCA Menards Series stats | Rajah Caruth Web Site

Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway (⏰ 3 p.m. ET | 📺 FOX | 📻 MRN, SiriusXM)

Everything you need to know for Sunday’s race, the ninth points-paying NASCAR Cup Series event of the 2021 season. 

Where: Richmond Raceway, a .75-mile oval located in Richmond, Virginia
Green flag: 3 p.m. ET
TV/Radio: FOX, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Forecast: Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. Calm wind becoming northwest around 6 mph in the morning, according to NOAA.gov
National anthem: Alana Springsteen, country music singer, recording artist and songwriter
Grand marshal: Todd Thompson, proud owner of a 2012 Toyota Camry & VIP customer of Mechanicsville Toyota
Race Distance: 400 laps, 300 miles
Stages: 80 | 235 | 400
Pit-road speed: 40 mph
Caution car speed: 45 mph
Richmond 101: Get the full lowdown
Starting lineup: See the full lineup

Watch OSS Inspection:
Live at 8 a.m. ET
Pit stall assignments: See who is pitting where  
| Expert breaks down pit selections

2021 Richmond

Five to watch

Here are five big story lines we’ll be following at Richmond Raceway.

1. Martin Truex Jr. has won five of the last 11 short-track races, including last weekend’s event at Martinsville Speedway. He is the NASCAR Cup Series’ only repeat winner in 2021 and could very well become a three-time winner Sunday at Richmond. The driver of the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota has won two of the last three Richmond races, and the only one he didn’t (2020), he finished second.

2. Kyle Busch has claimed a series-best six wins at Richmond. It’s his second-best track on the circuit when it comes to career wins, only behind his eight trophies from Bristol Motor Speedway. The driver of the No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota also boasts the longest active streak of top-10 Richmond finishes at six in a row.

3. The last time Hendrick Motorsports won at Richmond was in 2008 with Jimmie Johnson, who is now retired from full-time NASCAR competition. Two of the four HMS drivers have already won this season: William Byron at Homestead-Miami Speedway and Kyle Larson at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Alex Bowman has just one top 10 in nine career starts at Richmond, and Chase Elliott has three top fives in 10 career starts there.

4. Team Penske and Joe Gibbs Racing, meanwhile, have combined to win 11 of the last 13 races at Richmond. Gibbs is responsible for seven of those, leaving Penske with four.

5. Kevin Harvick‘s 2021 season is taking a turn in the wrong directions. The driver of the No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford hasn’t won in 15 races (longest streak since 2018-19), has not led laps in the last seven races (longest streak since 2017), hasn’t pulled off a top-five finish in the last five races (longest streak since 2019) and has no stage points in the last three races (longest streak ever). Harvick has won three times before at Richmond, but the most recent win was in 2013.

Race-day staplesByron Com Powerrankings Hero 922x493

Our biggest pieces of the week — get covered for race day from all angles.
Power Rankings: William Byron among the elite in early going | Scope the ranks
Paint Scheme Preview: Check out the designs taking on Richmond | See the schemes
Fantasy Fastlane: See which drivers to use, avoid | Full Fantasy advice |  Set your roster
Preview Show: Jonathan Merryman and Alex Weaver preview the race | Watch the show        

Get in on the action

Think you know NASCAR? Put your mettle to the test with gaming, fantasy.
Betting odds for Richmond raceSee the odds
Long betting odds tell the story of struggling preseason favorites | Learn how
Is Martin Truex Jr. an overpriced favorite at Richmond? | Find out
Not-so-happy Kevin Harvick going through 2021 rough patch | Full analysis
Take a shot at winning cash prizes with the free-to-play Jackpot Races app | Hit the jackpot
Full guide to 2021 NASCAR Fantasy Live game | Get the FAQ

Track history

Every track has a story to tell. Here’s what we’ve seen go down at Richmond Raceway in the past.2021 Richmond3
Short-track masters: Active drivers with most short-track wins | See the list
A first in Virginia: Drivers with first win at Richmond | See the list
Spring has sprung: Richmond’s all-time spring race winners | See the list
Front of the pack: Top 10 lap leaders at Richmond | See the list
Rockin’ around Richmond: Memorable moments at Richmond | See the list

Fast facts

Hard-hitting, race-relevant statistics, brought to you by the experts at Racing Insights.
Four of the last five Richmond races were won by Joe Gibbs Racing drivers. JGR has won seven of the last 10 Richmond races.
The race winner started in the top 10 in 10 of the last 12 Richmond races. The last 11 short-track races were won from a top-10 starting position.
There were five cautions or less in the last four Richmond races.
Two of the last three Richmond events had a green-flag stretch of more than 148 laps to finish race.
The last three Richmond winners led more than 100 laps. The eventual winner did not lead for the first time until Lap 111 or later in six of the last seven Richmond races. And the final lead change was before 25 to go in the last four Richmond races.

Catch the pack

Read up on all the headlines from the week leading up to Sunday’s race.
• Snow Day: NASCAR hits the ice in France | Read more
• Josh Berry:
Capitalizing on JR Motorsports opportunities | Read more
• Where are they now:
Catching up with Ricky Rudd | Read more
• The NASCAR Foundation:
15th anniversary on Betty Jane France’s birthday | Read more
• Triple Truck Challenge:
Womply to serve as presenting sponsor | Read more
• Cup Series:
Gaunt Brothers Racing taps Harrison Burton at Talladega | Read more

Say what?

Notable quotes from the stars of the sport heading into Sunday’s race.

“Richmond is kind of a hit-or-miss track for me. Even though I have a victory and some good finishes, I haven’t had too many great runs there. It seems like there have been several times I have been average at Richmond but then come home with a top-five finish. I’m really looking forward to this weekend because we have had speed it seems like every week this year.” — Kyle Larson, driver of the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

“Richmond is just a super technical track. It gets really slick.  Cars fall off a lot. You lose a lot of forward drive over the run.  You lose a lot of center turn. You get really loose in on the brakes. It’s a heavy braking track, so there are just a lot of challenges from the driver side and from the setup side to try to be really balanced over the course of a run.” — Jeremy Bullins, crew chief of the No. 2 Team Penske Ford2021 Martintruexjr Richmond

“Richmond is a really fun race track. It’s very low grip. I think tire wear is always the big question; how fast are you on the short run, and how does that help or hurt you on the long run. You need to be able to intertwine those two and be good enough at both to stay at the front and then have something at the end. It always depends on if it comes down to a long run or a short run to the checkers, but it’s definitely a fun track. It’s always a challenge to get your car to do the things that it needs to do to win there. It never wants to turn good enough and it never has enough drive off, so it’s a typical short track and that makes for an exciting race.” — Martin Truex Jr., driver of the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

“I’m interested to see what this weekend’s race will be like. Normally, we run at Richmond at night, so it’s going to be a different challenge this year racing during the day. It’s already so low on grip that you’re going to be moving around no matter what. I feel like the track is going to change a lot as the race goes on as well. It’s going to be a learning curve as the run goes on to keep up with what your car needs.” — William Byron, driver of the No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

John Hunter Nemechek earned his second NASCAR Camping World Truck Series win in the last four races and had to hold off his boss Kyle Busch to do so Saturday afternoon. Nemechek scored the victory by a slim .307 seconds over Busch in the ToyotaCare 250 at Richmond Raceway.

RELATED: Official results

Nemechek, 23, led a race best 114 of the 250 laps in his No. 4 KBM Toyota, reclaiming the lead for good with 17 laps remaining after racing back from a late-race pit stop. Busch, who has 12 wins overall at Richmond – six in the NASCAR Cup Series and six in the NASCAR Xfinity Series – was pushing for his first truck series win at the three-quarter mile track.

The KBM truck team has now won four consecutive races – two for Nemechek (Las Vegas Motor Speedway also), Busch (Atlanta Motor Speedway) and Martin Truex Jr. (Bristol Motor Speedway).

For a while, it looked like KBM may earn a sweep – with Nemechek, Busch and teammate Chandler Smith running 1-2-3 in the waning laps, but Tyler Ankrum got around Smith with a handful of laps remaining to take third place. Smith held on for fourth place – the 18-year-old’s best finish of the season.

Former series champion Johnny Sauter finished fifth, followed by Todd Gilliland, Ben Rhodes and last year’s Richmond winner Grant Enfinger. Sam Mayer and Austin Hill rounded out the top 10. Reigning series champion Sheldon Creed was 11th.

The victory for Nemechek comes just three weeks after his wife gave birth to their first child, daughter Aspen, and they were trackside in the family motorhome for Nemechek’s first win as a dad.

“It’s a never-give-up attitude,” a smiling Nemechek said after the race. “I just can’t thank Kyle, everyone at Toyota and all our great partners. It’s pretty cool to be able to come out and here do what we did. We had a really fast truck and I’m super proud of all my guys and thankful for them.”

The race featured two very different halves. Defending winner Enfinger led 71 of the first 73 laps and earned the Stage 1 victory – his first of the year – in a clean opening to the event. The first caution was the stage break.

Busch’s team got his truck out first from that opening stage caution period, but Nemechek took the lead from his team owner on a restart at Lap 100 and held it for most of the duration of the event. Nemechek won Stage 2, finishing just ahead of Enfinger and claiming his series best sixth stage win.

Nemechek had to really earn the top position from there on out – holding off the field again and again and again. There were seven cautions in the last 110 laps of the race.

Matt Crafton and his ThorSport Racing teammate Johnny Sauter – along with Smith – gambled not to pit late on a caution with 55 laps remaining in the race. Nemechek and Busch and most of the frontrunners opted to pit. The KBM teammates restarted ninth and 10th with Nemechek reclaiming the lead with 17 laps to go.

Busch made a run at Nemechek after getting around Smith but was ultimately unable to get close enough to attempt a winning pass.

“It’s awesome,” Busch said of his truck team’s streak. “I joked with John Hunter at the beginning of the year that if you win one and then I win one and you win one and then I win one – it would be pretty good to go back and forth.

“I didn’t think he was serious, but so far that’s kind of the way it’s going so I guess I get Kansas (win).”

The two-win tally equals the second-generation NASCAR driver’s season best – and this is only the sixth race of 2021. Nemechek now holds a 20-point advantage over fellow two-race winner Rhodes in the championship standings with the next race set for May 1 at Kansas Speedway (7:30 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

NOTE: The race winning No. 4 Kyle Busch Motorsports Toyota of John Hunter Nemechek passed NASCAR’s post-race inspection. It had one lug nut not safe and secure, though.

Time for a quick look at the highlights from NASCAR Twitter this week.

Insane In The Rain

Kudos to all the drivers who take to social media to document the slow descent into madness during a rain delay. A few of our favorites.

Poor Ryan – dressed to the nines for TV, and nowhere to go. He’s begging for sustenance, before times get desperate and he stares at Austin Dillon’s red dress shirt long enough that he starts thinking Austin is a steak.

Ziploc bags give new meaning to the term “Hey, fresh kicks, bro.”

These are the words of a driver who clearly drank four mochaccinos assuming the race would resume and doesn’t want it to be all for naught.

I mean maybe if you would @ Mother Nature instead of just subtweeting her, Jeb.

We hear there’s cake over in the Kaulig Racing hauler but hurry before Blaney gets there.

That impressive 12th-place finish you earned after a tumultuous day seems to have kickstarted a new tradition. Three Martinsville hot dogs before every race, no exceptions. Some people just want to watch the large intestine burn.

It’s A Tough Job, But Someone’s Gotta Do It

Another painstaking day on the grind for Chase Elliott. For comparison, I once had a job at my town’s street department where one of my responsibilities was scraping roadkill off the street with a shovel. BRB, gonna rethink my career choices for like five hours.

The Birds Return In The Spring

I don’t know who gave Chase the middle finger and I don’t really care. But all we hear about is how difficult a track Martinsville Speedway is to drive. If that’s so, then why, may I ask, is it apparently pretty easy to drive an entire lap with one hand? ANSWER ME.

The NextGen Harvicks

Keelan isn’t the only Harvick behind the wheel! Looks like Piper already has some racing chops also. In 20 years time, don’t be surprised to see brother and sister competing in NASCAR, in flying cars powered by kale or whatever we’re racing at the time.

Also, More Like “DOH!-GECOIN” Amirite

It’s OK. Blockbuster passed on purchasing Netflix for $50 million in 2000. Excite passed on purchasing Google for $750,000 in 1999. I don’t know how this is supposed to make you feel better. You could be crypto-rich arriving at the track every Sunday in a gold-plated stretch modified.

The following article is brought to you by BetMGM.

Since Richmond Raceway opened its three-quarters of a mile track in 1946, it has been a fan favorite and one of the more unique race tracks on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit. The D-shaped oval allows for some of the top short-track straightaway speeds. And there are some consistent, dominant drivers at Richmond, and they top the BetMGM lines when you bet NASCAR online.

If you’re following the NASCAR odds this week, you’ll see some unique names, which we’ll discuss below.

RELATED: NASCAR Bet Center | Latest odds by BetMGM

THE FAVORITE

Martin Truex, Jr. (+400)

He swept the two races at Richmond in 2019, won two of the last four races this season and hasn’t finished outside of the top three at this track since 2018. He’s Super Truex (at least when it comes to Richmond).

Oh, and Truex also received the Busch Pole Award this weekend, which, of course, is determined this season by a NASCAR metrics formula for setting the lineup, as opposed to literal qualifying on the track. That’s another advantage for the 2017 NASCAR Cup Series champion.

There’s no big mystery why Truex sits atop the BetMGM NASCAR betting lines heading into this weekend’s race. Even though Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch has six career wins at the track in the Cup Series and another six victories in the Xfinity Series, Busch comes in with the sixth-best odds (+900).

Can Truex continue his 2021 success? He has had five top-10 finishes in eight races and loves this place, so keep an eye on him.

OTHERS: We already mentioned Busch above, but the next candidates are racers you’d expect to be in this position. Veterans like Denny Hamlin (+600), Brad Keselowski (+650) and Joey Logano (+800) are no-brainers to be considered potential winners.

They’re the main threats to Truex, along with Busch. Kevin Harvick (+1100) also has three career wins and 26 top-10 finishes in 39 races at Richmond.

THE DARK-HORSE THREAT

Kyle Larson (+750)

Larson had been pretty solid at Richmond during his career with Chip Ganassi Racing before moving on to Hendrick Motorsports. He won the late 2017 race, has five finishes in the top seven in his past seven attempts at the venue and also won an Xfinity Series race in 2017.

He’s off to a strong start this season, with a win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and five top 10s in his past six races. Larson will also begin the race in the No. 6 position based on the metrics used to set the starting order, so he’s in a good position to move up. It also never hurts to have two Hendrick Motorsports teammates starting in the top six with you. Chase Elliott (No. 3) and William Byron (No. 4) won’t be far away.

OTHERS: Honestly, it seems like Christopher Bell (+2800) sneaks into the discussion every week. He may only have 44 career Cup Series races on his racing resume and only one at Richmond (15th-place finish last year), but he’s a hot topic in the NASCAR ranks. He also won three races in the Xfinity Series at Richmond (two in 2018, one in 2019) and is off to a hot start this season. He starts eighth this weekend in his No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing machine.

THE INTRIGUING LONG SHOT

Cole Custer (+15000)

Let’s have some fun with this.

Custer won a 2019 Richmond race in the Xfinity Series, and he has had four top-10 finishes in seven attempts while racing in the lower series. He never finished lower than 15th. In his young career in the Cup Series, he only has two Richmond starts and a top finish of 14th.

He’s 23 years old and has shown flashes of brilliance in NASCAR. Is this a track he’ll look back at one day and think of as a “home sweet home” type of venue? He starts in the No. 21 spot.

OTHERS: Aric Almirola (+8000) is an interesting prospect. The racing journeyman has finished 17 Cup Series races at the track, with six top-10 finishes. He averaged a 15.5 finish and took eighth last year. You never know.

Bubba Wallace’s first campaign with first-year team 23XI Racing hasn’t quite had the results in its set-sail season that have dazzled on paper. The magic number right now seems to be 16, his finishing position in three of the eight NASCAR Cup Series races so far this year.

What has been encouraging has been the performance, leading laps in half those starts and finding some early chemistry with crew chief Mike Wheeler. As the 23XI organization sets its course for growth under the leadership of co-owners Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin, Wallace has been emboldened by the early showings before the series’ next race, Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400 (3 p.m. ET, FOX, MRN, SiriusXM) at Richmond Raceway.

RELATED: Richmond weekend schedule | Starting lineup

“It’s only a matter of time,” Wallace said during a Friday morning video conference with reporters, noting the team’s strides toward cracking the top 15 and landing its first top-10 finish. He starts 15th Sunday. “All cylinders are not firing at the same time, but we’re hitting all of them. They’re all kind of sporadic, so it’s like once we get that out and hit it together, there’s a lot of potential with this team, and I continue to say that. That’s one of the most exciting things is, ‘can it be this weekend?’ and that’s what you go into like, OK, we showed some highlights of success, we know what to build back on when we come back. Richmond’s going to be a good weekend. I can feel it.”

Even as 23XI Racing tries to find its way in the Cup Series, talk has centered around its potential for expansion. A move to a multi-car organization could sync with the introduction of the Next Gen car, which will make its competition debut next season.

Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images

As far as the timing or who a potential 23XI teammate might be under that scenario, Wallace smiled at the prospects before deferring to team leadership.

“Welp, that’s above my pay grade, both of those parts of that question,” Wallace said. “But no, I’m here to help advance the team each and every race and progress and get us to the next level each and every race. So whatever their time frame is, I’m a part of it and I hope to continue that growth for many years to come. Where we’re at, what we have going right now is something super solid and a really good foundation for us to continue to build and add new teams and new cars, new drivers. A matter of when, I don’t know. A matter of who, hey, that’s Denny. That’s Denny’s call there.”

As for the other part of the 23XI brass, Wallace said Jordan has been similarly encouraged by the start-up team’s early returns. The NBA legend’s ultra-competitive nature is well-documented, and Hamlin and Wallace each possess similar traits in their own realm.

Jordan’s basketball success was measured in scores of Chicago Bulls victories and several championships, but none of those came with immediacy. His new NASCAR team’s progress has also been gradual, and Wallace said 23XI’s famous co-owner has accepted that pace without adding any pressure on the driver to win.

“He understands motorsports a little different,” Wallace said. “He had a superbike team. You know you can’t win every race. Having Denny as co-owner there is managing expectations, and from the sounds of it, talking with Denny, we are exceeding expectations that they kind of had set in place before the season started. After our good runs, I’m getting a text from MJ saying, ‘Good job, kid.’ It’s stuff like that’s like, that’s pretty cool.

“He’s paying attention. Yeah, he knows we’re not winning, but he knows we’re continuing to make steps to make progress. It’s not something you just jump right into and expect to win. You’re living in fairy-tale land if you expect that to happen. Do we expect to win? Absolutely. But we have to do a lot of work in the meantime to get to that level. This sport is tough.”

Martin Truex Jr. is a deserving favorite heading into Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway, but priced at 4/1 odds at multiple sportsbooks, the No. 19 Toyota may be too expensive a proposition for bettors.

Those odds, which can also be expressed as +400 (bet $100 to win $400), translate into a 20% chance of winning the race.  

Truex has been stellar this season, sitting in second in the standings and boasting two wins in the first eight races. Those two wins, in fact, have come at Phoenix and Martinsville, tracks handicappers use as comparisons for Richmond.

RELATED: NASCAR BetCenter | Odds for Sunday’s race at Richmond

Truex’s past performances at Richmond have also been excellent. He’s finished second, first, first and third over the last four Cup events on this three-quarter miler, and in the two previous Richmond races before that, he led 121 and 198 laps.

Sharp bettors make their plays based on value. If the odds imply a greater percent chance than a driver truly has, for example, they’ll stay away.

“It’s hard to deny he’s great at Richmond and he’s great at these types of tracks. The question is, is he really a 20-25 percent favorite to win, which is what the betting markets are suggesting,” Blake Phillips, a sharp NASCAR bettor, said of Truex this week.

Ed Salmons, who handles NASCAR oddsmaking at SuperBook USA in Las Vegas, adjusted his original numbers in Truex’s direction. On Monday, he hung Truex and Denny Hamlin both at +450. Upon reflection, he made Truex the sole favorite at +400 and lengthened Hamlin to +500 

“I made my spreadsheet, and then I thought about it, and I’m like, ‘Truex has to be the favorite.’ The 9/2 was probably a little bit high, so I just tweaked it a little bit. I went ‘5’ on Hamlin, ‘4’ on Truex and just basically adjusted all of his matchups up about 20 cents.”

For examples of Salmons’ matchup adjustments, Truex went from -110 (bet $110 to win $100) to -130 (bet $130 to win $100) vs. Hamlin, and from -135 to -150 vs. Brad Keselowski.  

“He definitely seems like the guy to beat,” Salmons continued, “and it’s funny, because last week (at Martinsville), his car really was nothing special. You saw his track position. But once it turned to nighttime, all of a sudden you could see it come to life around lap 400. He was definitely clicking off the best lap times the rest of the race.”

Most recreational bettors tend to put too much weight on what they saw last, and the public’s anticipated lean to Truex likely factors into his odds being so short.

“(Public bettors) are gonna go heavy on Truex no matter what,” said Phillips. “I think that’s a reason why he’s such a heavy favorite. A little bit of recency bias going on, and the fact that he’s great on short flat tracks and especially Richmond.”

RELATED: Long betting odds tell the tale of Harvick, Busch’s struggles so far

If not Truex, then who?

The suggestion above is not that Truex doesn’t have a great chance to win Sunday – he obviously does –only that at 4/1 odds, he may be overvalued. 

The SuperBook oddsboard has five other drivers priced in the single digits, and Salmons gives all of them a shot. As any NASCAR observer may have guessed, these guys all come from one of three garages – Gibbs, Penske or Hendrick.

In addition to Truex and Hamlin, Salmons said, “You can never count out Logano (8/1) and Keselowski (6/1) here. Kyle Larson (7/1) has been fast all year. Martinsville has never really been his thing, and I thought he ran a decent race for him there (finished fifth last weekend). It was a non-mistake race. I would put Chase (Elliott) and Kyle Larson in there and the two Penske guys. I think one those six is your winner.”

Added Phillips, “You’re generally going to see the same guys you expect to see up there. Joey Logano’s gonna be up front, Denny Hamlin’s gonna be up front. I think Kyle Larson is gonna be a guy to watch this week, and William Byron – those are guys who are not favorites to win the race, but I think they have a lot of attributes that are going to favor them.”

Also per the NASCAR.com Power Rankings, where he’s listed No. 5, Byron deserves a look at juicy 20/1 odds.  Ryan Blaney ranks No. 6 on NASCAR.com’s list and can be had for 16/1, but Salmons downplays the No. 12 Ford’s chances.

“I’ve followed Blaney at this track for years and for whatever reason, he’s so bad here (24.8 average finish). I read a quote after the race last year, and he said how much time they spent on the Richmond race. Their biggest issue has always been their tire fall off is just so dramatic. So they really worked on it to try to run different early in a run or whatever, and the same thing happened again.”

Blaney’s best finish at Richmond is 17th in the 2019 Fall race.

“I don’t know why he can’t drive Richmond. On TV, it doesn’t look like a real technical track, but obviously there’s something there. I mean, he’s just never been competitive here, let alone winning.”

Marcus DiNitto is a writer and editor living in Charlotte, North Carolina. He has been covering sports for nearly two-and-a-half decades and sports betting for more than 10 years. His first NASCAR betting experience was in 1995 at North Wilkesboro Speedway, where he went 0-for-3 on his matchup picks. Read his articles and follow him on Twitter; do not bet his picks.