Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe have already earned their berths to Phoenix, meaning there are still two spots up for grabs Sunday at Martinsville.
Live NASCAR odds from BetMGM list polesitter William Byron as the race favorite with +350 odds, followed by Denny Hamlin (+475), Chase Elliott (+475), Kyle Larson (+500) and Ryan Blaney (+625) for today’s NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs Round of 8 finale.
I’m zeroing in on two drivers from this list of favorites, as well as a 20-1 longer-shot pick for my best bets for Martinsville.
NASCAR Odds, Best Bet Pick for Talladega
*Odds as of Sunday morning
Let’s jump right in with my top two favorites to bet for Sunday’s race.
I’m not breaking any news by saying I like Hamlin to win today’s race.
The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has six career Cup Series wins at Martinsville, including earlier this season.
But what really caught my eye was an interview with Hamlin during Saturday’s on-track activity.
In that interview, Hamlin mentioned that the left-rear tires were burning off in practice, just as they did 15 years ago.
Very few drivers in today’s field were in the Cup Series 15 years ago, and considering Hamlin notched four wins at this track from 2008-2010, he’ll have the best idea of how to save tires to ensure long-run speed.
Blaney is known for having pace on long runs at Martinsville and appears to have it again this weekend.
The No. 12 Ford posted the third-fastest 20- and 25-lap averages in practice on Saturday, but Blaney didn’t do himself any favors after qualifying a disappointing 31st for today’s race.
However, Blaney has won the past two playoff races at Martinsville, and while he didn’t start as deep as 31st on the grid, both of those wins came with starting positions outside of the top 10, so I’m willing to buy low(er) on the Team Penske driver despite his poor qualifying effort.
Wallace has repeatedly said that Martinsville is among his favorite tracks, and he has backed that up with finishes of eighth, ninth, 11th, fourth, 18th and third over his last six races at this circuit.
Wallace appears to have a race pace in his career as well this weekend, ranking fourth in 20- and 25-lap averages and second in the 30-lap average in practice.
Editor’s note: Race projections were updated after Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions.
It all comes down to Martinsville Speedway if you want to make the Championship 4. The penultimate race of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season is always one for the books, and Sunday’s event (2 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) should be no different.
Joe Gibbs Racing has the high ground after Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe snagged half the tickets punched for Phoenix to race for the Bill France Cup so far, and teammate Christopher Bell is the highest in points of the remaining playoff drivers without a win. However, lurking beneath the surface are four hungry drivers with accomplished pedigrees at the Virginia short track, all looking to win their way in walk-off fashion to make it to the Championship 4.
Will the fall Martinsville trend of favoring walk-off winners continue, or will Hamlin sweep the year at his home track? Before cars hit the half-mile, let’s dig a little deeper with stats provided by Racing Insights.
All eight playoff drivers fill out the top eight projected finishing results, with Hamlin predicted to back up his victory at Martinsville in the spring. It makes sense as Hamlin has a whopping 9.8 average finish at the short track across 39 starts and has led 100 or more laps in five of the last nine Cup races there. He’s also scored top fives in five of the last six events, bookended by that March triumph.
However, having punched his ticket to the Championship 4 already with his 60th career win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway two weeks ago, it’s tough to see the No. 11 driver focus on Sunday with all eyes toward going for that elusive Cup title a week later.
Looking at prior years with Martinsville as the cutoff race in the semifinal round, only one driver has finished inside the top five at the track after winning earlier in the round — that was Joey Logano with a third-place result in the 2020 fall race. With no added incentive except for a grandfather clock added to his home decor, you may want to look elsewhere for a winner on Sunday.
Hello, Ryan Blaney — once again. Only one time has a driver not won from beneath the cutline at Martinsville to reach the Championship 4, and that was non-playoff driver Alex Bowman in 2021. The No. 12 Team Penske driver is responsible for the last two Martinsville playoff victories, the first of which culminated in his crowning as series champion in 2023. Blaney’s had a rough go of it since his New Hampshire victory to make the Round of 8. He’s finished outside the top 10 in every race since, with a best finish of 13th at the Charlotte Roval. But the Martinsville numbers are very good for Blaney, as he’s finished no worse than 11th dating all the way back to the spring of 2019.
William Byron, Chase Elliott and Logano are all below the Championship 4 cutline as well, and all are prior Martinsville winners, most recently the No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports driver in the spring of 2024.
Byron is due some luck after a pit stop without warning from Ty Dillon in front of him derailed him at Las Vegas, and a last-lap spin through the tri-oval at Talladega stymied him to must-win territory at Martinsville, down 36 points to teammate Kyle Larson.
After a string of tepid runs at Martinsville from 2021-2023, Elliott has gotten hot at the short track with three consecutive top fives. He knows a thing or two about winning in walk-off fashion, as he won the 2020 fall race that culminated in his lone Cup title.
As for Logano, you can’t count him out either. The three-time series champ is a top-10 machine at Martinsville. His last result outside the top 10 at the Virginia track? The spring of 2019.
BUBBA WALLACE: In the Gen 7 car, Wallace has been quite good at Martinsville with an average finish of 9.9. He’s finished fourth or better in two of the last three races at the track.
ROSS CHASTAIN: The No. 1 Trackhouse Racing driver has a well-known history at Martinsville, most notably the iconic “Hail Melon” move out of desperation that sent Chastain to the Championship 4 in 2022. Chastain enters the short track looking for his third straight top 10.
RYAN PREECE: The driver of the No. 60 RFK Racing Ford is starting to build some momentum going into 2026. He plated top 10s at the Roval and Las Vegas before coming home 15th at Talladega. Martinsville is a place where the short-track ace feels at home, and he’s coming off a seventh-place run in the spring.
TODD GILLILAND: The fourth-year Cup driver hasn’t had the season he would have wanted, but broke through with a career-best runner-up performance at Talladega. Gilliland isn’t too shabby at Martinsville with a pair of top 10s — most recently in the spring.
AUSTIN DILLON: It was a swift exit from the playoffs, but Dillon has a knack for strong performances at short tracks. He owns a third-place finish at Martinsville in the Gen 7 car (2022) and finished seventh in the playoff race last fall.
RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR XFINITY 500:
Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.
MARTINSVILLE, Va. — The message to Sammy Smith from the No. 8 JR Motorsports radio was delivered loud and clear. That over-the-air signal was a reminder of the fray that exploded on the last lap during the NASCAR Xfinity Series’ most recent trip to Martinsville Speedway, a fracas that he was in the middle of, again with rival Taylor Gray in front of him.
“We’ll go kick his ass the right way this time,” the No. 8 radio crackled.
Those kicking plans unraveled on a notably civil last lap of Saturday night’s Round of 8 finale in the Xfinity Series Playoffs, and so did Smith’s hopes of reaching the Championship 4 grid and a title shot in next Saturday’s season-ending race at Phoenix Raceway. Gray scooted away to his first victory in the series, but Smith followed through on the “right way” part of the scenario, taking a clean runner-up finish instead of an overly aggressive bump-and-run tactic that could have propelled him to the win and a Champ 4 berth.
“I wasn’t close enough to move him the right way,” Smith said post-race, “and if I move him like I did this spring, I’m going to get blackballed and get thrown out of the playoffs anyway, so I’m probably parked. Obviously, I didn’t want to do it that way anyway, and he was the better car today.”
Moving on instead to the championship race were Richard Childress Racing’s Jesse Love and JR Motorsports’ Carson Kvapil, two drivers who advanced on the basis of points after rocky evenings on the track. They’ll vie for the Xfinity Series crown with JRM’s Connor Zilisch, this year’s top rookie, and Justin Allgaier, the defending series champion.
Joining Smith on the wrong side of the elimination line were Joe Gibbs Racing’s Brandon Jones, who ended up four points behind Kvapil as the first driver out, and Haas Factory Team stablemates Sam Mayer and Sheldon Creed further back.
For Gray, the win was a measure of redemption for a pair of recent hard-knock losses at the 0.526-mile Martinsville track. Gray missed out on the Championship 4 in the Craftsman Truck Series after a run-in with Christian Eckes here last fall, then was slammed by Smith in the final lap in the springtime Xfinity show — both incidents that sparked heated post-race confrontations.
Gray said he was cognizant of their dust-up last March as the laps ticked down, and told reporters that the two had talked in the months since. “I’m not cool with him, though, if that’s what you’re asking, no,” Gray said. “And I think he knew better. I think he knew that he was gonna get himself in a fight if he wrecked me. So yeah, I think he probably played this one out a little smarter in his head than last time.”
Love and Kvapil were left with some sense of relief after both reached the Championship 4 field for the first time. Love entered the race with a comfortable 40-point advantage in the playoff standings, but two key pit-stop miscues and a resulting 23rd-place finish cost him a significant chunk of his cushion.
Love sped in the final section of pit road during his first stop of the race, knocking him to 30th in the running order early on. A Stage 2 pit stop brought more heartache when an errant tire rolled into the pit box behind Love’s, drawing an equipment interference penalty and dropping him to 36th in the 38-car field. “We’re not going to let it get us down here,” No. 2 crew chief Danny Stockman told his team over the radio after the second infraction. “We’ve got to (expletive) clean it up — everybody.”
Though he fell a lap down at one point, Love held on and advanced by an 18-point margin.
“It’s a relief, but not to say you ever take it for granted, but I expected coming in here to be moving on to Phoenix,” Love said, “and didn’t expect for it to be as blue collar of a night as it was, but I know that we’ll be good at Phoenix. I know it’s my best race track. I know this place is my worst race track, and I never like coming here, so I’m glad I can say sayonara until March next year.”
Kvapil recovered from a spinout on the 227th of 253 laps that threatened to upend his playoff course. Andrew Overstreet, crew chief for Kvapil’s No. 1 Chevrolet, opted to keep his driver on the track during a cycle of pit stops after a Lap 92 caution. That move helped Kvapil inherit the lead and hang on for a Stage 2 win and bank 10 crucial points in the standings to help his cause.
Kvapil was 13 points up as the final stage ticked down, but his spin in close-quarters racing with Ryan Sieg and pole-starter Harrison Burton left him in 30th place and staring down a sudden seven-point deficit. From there, the short-track ace rallied with some encouragement over the No. 1 team radio: “You’re faster than all these cars. Take no prisoners.”
Alejandro Alvarez | NASCAR Digital Media
Some 20 laps later, Kvapil had made up 12 spots to secure an 18th-place finish, advancing by a slim four-point margin and becoming the third JRM driver with a title shot next weekend.
“We positioned ourselves pretty well into Stage 3 before we got turned there,” Kvapil said, “and we kind of were in the situation where we just needed to just finish where we were and just not make any enemies and just try to ride it out. I think we were ahead of (Love) at the time. I think he got his lap back, and we were gonna have to go forward, but we were in a way better spot than we were at the end. Just once we got put back to 30th, it was, man, you’ve just got to hammer it. I mean, you hate to do it, right? You hate to go in there and just hammer people out of the way. But I mean, with less than 20 to go, you’ve just got to do what you’ve got to do, right? And I know our car has the speed to do it.”
On the other side of the four-point difference was Jones, who netted 11 points in the stages but wound up two positions short of a Champ 4-clinching victory.
“Struggled with the car a little bit throughout the race as well,” Jones said. “I mean, I don’t think by far we were anywhere capable of driving, taking the lead, going to win the race by just straight-up, real battle. We were good enough to go and be competitive to maybe take advantage of somebody’s mistakes, but I don’t know. All in all, we still have a little bit of work to clean up here. We’ve got some things that we can continue to make better, in my opinion. So I’m happy for Taylor. I’m happy to for him to get his first win. He’s been working hard at it. I know he has. So if somebody is going to win it, I guess let’s let one of those guys get it. So dejected we’re not going to go run for the championship, but proud of all the things that we’ve done this year and we built.”
The Xfinity Series finale is set for next Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET, The CW, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
The NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship 4 is set after Saturday night’s Round of 8 finale at Martinsville Speedway.
Jesse Love and Carson Kvapil clinched the final two spots to race for a title at Phoenix Raceway with respective finishes of 23rd and 18th. Both drivers had to overcome adversity throughout the evening at the Virginia short track as Love lacked speed and had multiple early penalties, while Kvapil spun late in the race.
Kvapil rallied late after his Lap 227 spin and gained more than 10 positions before the checkered flag to outduel Brandon Jones by four points for the final Championship 4 spot.
JR Motorsports drivers Connor Zilisch and Justin Allgaier already punched their tickets to Phoenix on points after Talladega Superspeedway.
Jones, Sammy Smith, Sam Mayer and Sheldon Creed were eliminated from championship contention at Martinsville.
Mayer expressed his frustrations with racing Jeb Burton. Mayer spun the No. 27 Jordan Anderson Racing driver after the checkered flag and shared pointed words about Burton on pit road.
“It’s a principle thing. He’s the worst person to race around in the entire garage,” Mayer said of Burton. “He has a reputation of being over his head every single week and this was a prime example of it. He just can’t take no for an answer and a guy with a purple spoiler racing for something huge, moved him out of the way and went on and was faster than him in the end, and as soon as he got back to me, he gave it the beans and tried to wreck me three corners in a row.”
Mayer’s Haas Factory Racing teammate Creed said he just needed a little more to compete for the win Saturday night to advance, ultimately finishing fourth.
“We just needed to be a little better to maybe be in the position the 8 or the 20 were in,” Creed said. “I’m really surprised the 20 didn’t kind of try to push the 54 up or even the 8. I thought he was for sure gonna try. To see a Martinsville finish end like that is probably good for the series. I think guys are maturing and I feel like all of us are just trying to race each other a little better, but I just felt like the 20 or the 8 could have maybe pushed the issue a little more there.”
The Xfinity Series Championship takes place next Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET, The CW, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) and will be the final title race to take place at the 1-mile Arizona oval. It’s also the final race with Xfinity as the series title sponsor.
MARTINSVILLE, Va. — Not only did Taylor Gray have plenty of reason to celebrate his first NASCAR Xfinity Series victory Saturday night at Martinsville Speedway, but he also made Carson Kvapil’s day.
Driving the No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, Gray pulled away from former nemesis Sammy Smith after an overtime restart on Lap 252 and held on to win the IAA & Ritchie Bros. 250 at the 0.526-mile short track.
When Gray took the checkered flag, keeping playoff contenders Smith and Brandon Jones behind him, Kvapil had a place in next Saturday’s Championship 4 race at Phoenix Raceway.
After a frenetic drive from 30th place in the final 17 laps of regulation, Kvapil advanced to the Xfinity title race by four points over Jones and five over Smith. Kvapil joins Jesse Love, Justin Allgaier and rookie Connor Zilisch in the championship event.
Eliminated along with Jones and Smith were Sam Mayer, who took out his frustrations on Jeb Burton’s car after the race, and fourth-place finisher Sheldon Creed, who couldn’t prevail in a must-win situation entering the event.
The playoff drama, however, did nothing to diminish the effort of Gray, who surged into the lead after a restart on Lap 202 and held it the rest of the way.
Gray was driving toward a probable victory in regulation when Daniel Dye’s Chevrolet began spewing sparks and stopped on the track to cause the ninth caution of the evening and force overtime.
With a great launch on the overtime restart, Gray pulled away to win by 0.344 seconds over Smith and 0.650 seconds over Jones.
“(Crew chief) Jason Ratcliff, all these guys — the pit crew did an awesome job tonight,” exulted Gray, who led a race-high 52 laps in his 45th start in the series. “They give me opportunities to win every time I walk through the gates to this race track.
“I knew I needed to get a good enough launch so that I wouldn’t have anyone in reach of me heading into Turn 1. At that point, I knew we had a good enough car to drive away from the guys behind me.”
Last spring, Gray was in a similar position before Smith knocked him out of the way in the closing laps with such aggression that NASCAR penalized the driver of the No. 8 JR Motorsports Chevrolet.
In Saturday’s race, Smith drove with more restraint in his pursuit, and Gray had his maiden victory in the series.
“I feel like we’re good enough to be in the final four,” Smith said. “We weren’t good enough in the playoffs to do that. It really sucks, so we’ll just regroup and keep digging.”
Love, who came to Martinsville with a 40-point cushion above the elimination line, suffered through an evening fraught with errors, including a pair of pit road penalties, and finished 23rd. Nevertheless, he advanced by 18 points over Jones.
Kvapil seemed secure in points until a chain-reaction collision involving Ryan Sieg and Harrison Burton sent his No.1 JR Motorsports Chevrolet spinning on Lap 227.
Kvapil restarted 30th and drove frantically through the field to finish 18th and preserve his spot in the Championship 4.
“That was probably the most nerve-wracking racing I’ve done in my career,” Kvapil said. “Obviously, we were sitting in a pretty good spot before we got turned around there…
“I think the sky’s the limit for these guys. Our season hasn’t been the flashiest … but you never know. It all comes down to one race and we’ve got a 25-percent chance of winning.”
Aric Almirola, who will battle for the Xfinity owners’ championship next Saturday against Allgaier, Zilisch and Austin Hill, finished fifth behind Creed. Jeb Burton, Mayer, Dean Thompson, Connor Zilisch and Modified Tour star Justin Bonsignore completed the top 10.
The Xfinity Series will crown a champion next Saturday at Phoenix Raceway (7:30 p.m. ET, The CW, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). It’s the final race with Xfinity serving as the series entitlement sponsor.
NOTE: Post-race inspection in the Xfinity Series garage concluded without issue, confirming Gray as the race winner and officially finalizing the Championship 4. No cars will return to the NASCAR R&D Center in Concord, North Carolina.
Track: Martinsville Speedway Location: Martinsville, Virginia Track length: 0.526 miles When: Sunday, 2 p.m. ET Where to tune in: NBC, Peacock, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App Race purse: $9,797,935 Race distance: 500 laps | 263 miles Stages: 130 | 260 | 500 Defending winner: Ryan Blaney, November 2024 Starting lineup: William Byron on pole at Martinsville
Hendrick Motorsports’ Championship 4 prospects hinge on Martinsville
MARTINSVILLE, Va. — Hendrick Motorsports has typically treated Martinsville Speedway as a friendly place, competition-wise. All four of the organization’s drivers have won here in the NASCAR Cup Series, and another victory Sunday would mark its 30th Martinsville victory — padding the team’s series-leading tally.
This time around, the stakes go beyond statistics, superlatives and the organization’s rich Martinsville history.
Postseason implications abound in Sunday’s Xfinity 500, the final race in the Cup Series Playoffs’ Round of 8. Four drivers will be eliminated from playoff contention, while the other four will move on to vie for the Cup Series championship in the season finale Nov. 2 at Phoenix Raceway.
How many Hendrick Motorsports drivers make that title-shot trip remains among the top questions for Sunday’s 500-lap showdown. William Byron, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson are all clinging to eligibility, but only two available spots remain. Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe snapped up two berths with Round of 8 wins the last two weeks, so Hendrick’s count of Championship 4-bound drivers could be two, one or at worst zero, depending on how Martinsville plays out for the organization that has had at least one championship-race qualifier each year since 2020.
Hendrick Motorsports has five victories in the last 14 Martinsville events, but the two other operations that hold out playoff hope this weekend have made some inroads. JGR has also won five races in that span, and Team Penske has four Martinsville wins in that stretch, including two straight from Ryan Blaney in the Virginia short track’s annual fall clash.
All three Hendrick Motorsports playoff drivers endured varying degrees of hardship last weekend at Talladega, between Byron’s last-lap spin, Larson’s final-lap fuel flutter and Elliott’s Stage 1 crash-out. The organization will have at least one odd man out after this weekend’s battle. With NASCAR’s winningest team heading to one of its traditional strongholds, here’s a driver-by-driver look at each of their prospects, listed in order of their percentages of advancing, according to statistical clearinghouse Racing Insights.
Kyle Larson (81.8%): As the only Hendrick driver above the provisional elimination line (by a plus-36 margin), Larson holds the best hope of the three for landing in Phoenix with title dreams intact, and he bolstered that by qualifying third Saturday. He also holds a hefty history of strong Martinsville performances in his favor, including a remarkable series-best average finish of 3.2 in the last six races here, with top-six finishes for the No. 5 Chevrolet in all of them.
Larson is currently fourth in the playoff standings, just one point behind Christopher Bell. That positioning creates an intriguing subplot, with each of those two longtime challengers needing to stay in front of the other, protecting against another winner below the cutline from knocking them out. All four drivers below the cut are former Martinsville winners, so that danger is real.
Chase Elliott (9.6%): Elliott’s last-place finish at Talladega leaves him in the playoffs cellar, 62 points below the elimination threshold and needing a win to stay in postseason contention. Martinsville could very well be a welcoming place for that: His lone win here served as a late-hour springboard to his Cup Series title campaign in 2020.
“Things haven’t really gone the way that we want them to, and it’s easy to feel sorry for yourself,” said No. 9 crew chief Alan Gustafson. “But that just doesn’t do any good. There’s no real value in that. So I think everybody understands that, and I can speak for myself and how I try to influence a team, but I think you still have a lot of opportunity, right? I mean, we’ve got a lot of opportunity to come in here and race for a win, and it’s best to spend that effort focusing on that. And I’m excited to be able to do it.”
His more recent record here suggests that the potential is there again for the No. 9 Chevy team, which led the way in Saturday’s practice session. Elliott’s last three Martinsville events have resulted in top-four finishes, and no Cup Series driver has earned more points in that stretch.
William Byron (8.5%): The Regular Season Champion’s points advantage has taken a pair of hard hits in the Round of 8 — a fluke crash at Las Vegas that dropped him below the cutline and a last-lap Talladega spin that knocked the rest of the stuffing from his playoff cushion, leaving him minus-36 loading into Martinsville.
Byron has won twice in the last seven races here, but those results are his only top-five finishes during that period. He’ll have a clear view at the green flag Sunday, starting from the pole position after topping the qualifying pack Saturday. Making the Championship 4 field for the third straight year will hinge on him righting the No. 24 team’s course in a hurry; his two top 10s in the playoffs are the fewest of the current postseason field.
What do crew chiefs have in focus to win Sunday’s race?
It’s been 15 years since one driver has swept both Martinsville races in a single season, dating back to Denny Hamlin’s double-up in 2010, lending credence to the prevailing thought that spring-seasonal dominance here doesn’t necessarily translate to similar performance in the fall.
“Yeah, I think that’s been the same way for as long as I’ve been going there,” says Rudy Fugle, crew chief for William Byron’s No. 24 Chevrolet.
This time, though, two key differences stand out. Teams will come to grips in Sunday’s race with a new, softer-compound left-side Goodyear tire, one that should promise advanced wear and place a premium on tire management and strategy. The race will also stretch from the springtime 400-lap distance to a traditional 500-lapper, with all three stages longer to match.
The move to softer tire compounds follows a recent trend, and this setup emerged from a Goodyear tire test at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in July. Three months later, the combination is set to be used in much chillier conditions, with a daytime high barely cresting 60 degrees in the southern Virginia hills.
“It’s more just a wait and see, and we’ll see what the track temps are like and how it behaves when it rubbers in,” said James Small, crew chief for Chase Briscoe’s No. 19 Toyota, earlier in the week. “But obviously, same construction as what we’ve been using, but just slightly softer compound. I know the guys that did the Loudon Goodyear tire test, including (teammate) Christopher (Bell), they got a run on these tires. So we have some general feedback on how it compared to what we previously raced. So yeah, not expecting a huge amount of difference, just maybe a little more wear and falloff.”
A pair of 25-minute practice sessions in the cooler temps as Saturday’s sun set offered at least a glimpse. The track rubbered in slightly, and Byron speculated that warmer weather from a 2 p.m. ET start may help promote that. Hamlin gave the new tire setup a glowing initial review, saying practice felt like turning the clock back 15 years to a decidedly old-school feel.
That degree of wear and tire management will also be impacted by the length of Sunday’s race, 100 laps longer than when the Cup Series last visited here in March. In the spring, the stage breaks came at Laps 80 and 180 with the full distance at 400; Sunday’s event has stages ending at Lap 130, Lap 260 and a full 500 laps scheduled. With longer runs potentially in the pit-strategy mix Sunday, unloading fast or dialing in the setup quickly is paramount.
“It certainly does,” said Adam Stevens, crew chief for Bell’s No. 20 Toyota, “and then you factor in that new tire combination with the softer left side, you would think that they’re going to wear out quicker, and them wearing out quicker and then having longer runs, if you don’t have an opportunity in practice to run out the full 25 minutes and see how it really behaves, because maybe you need an adjustment or maybe the caution comes out because of some other reason, and you just can’t have a full understanding of that, chances are you’re going to acquire a full understanding of that when the race starts.
“We’ve seen in the past there, gosh, I can’t remember what year it was where I want to say one of the Penske cars started on the pole. This was not this era of car but the previous car, and we had some kind of tire change, and they got lapped on the first run. I think everybody was surprised at the degradation and the wear, and the track didn’t take rubber, and once the race started, you didn’t have a lot of tools to work on it, and certainly didn’t have any tools until the caution came out, and it really puts you in hang-on mode. That is a distinct possibility at Martinsville, especially with the temps that we’re going to have and a little bit of unknown with the new tire. So you hope that you unload close and you hope you have an opportunity to go out there and put 60 or 70 laps on your tires in practice and really develop some kind of understanding of what you’re really up against.”
The advantage we think it is? Typically, the first pit stall — the one nearest pit lane’s exit — is the prime choice for top qualifiers. While an unhindered pit-road egress is still a competitive edge, it hasn’t translated recently to victory since pit stall No. 1 is winless in the last 24 Martinsville races. That same span has also been a dry spell for pole winners. The last driver to win from the pole position (and the first pit-road stall) is Jimmie Johnson, who led 346 of 500 laps in the STP Gas Booster 500 in April 2013.
He may not be the favorite to win, but watch out for …
BUBBA WALLACE. The focus will naturally be on the eight drivers with playoff eligibility, but one of the Round of 12’s ousted pilots may have an opportunity to play spoiler. Wallace has finished among the top 10 in four of the last six Martinsville races with an average finish of 8.8 in that span, and he ran third in the Cup Series’ most recent trip here, capping off a 1-2-3 Toyota sweep. The 23XI Racing veteran has also won twice here in the Craftsman Truck Series, rolling to his first NASCAR national-series win back in 2013. He was also fourth-fastest overall in Saturday’s Cup Series practice. | See Wallace’s projected finish
Fantasy update
NASCAR Fantasy Live expert Dustin Albino provides insight for your Sunday lineup.
Five hundred laps around Martinsville is an eternity, but select Round of 8 drivers might need every one of them to be in the mix. Before turning in a stunning 31st-place starting position, Ryan Blaney couldn’t pinpoint why the No. 12 team has historically struggled to qualify well at Martinsville. Needing to win at Martinsville to advance to the Round of 8 will put Blaney’s long-run pace to the test. There’s a good chance he misses out on stage points entirely, but he had one of the best long-run cars, cracking the top three in 20- and 25-lap averages. That’s a category Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson dominated during practice. William Byron scored his third Busch Light Pole Award of the season and has moved into my lineup over Christopher Bell, who was grappling with his No. 20 Toyota during practice. I’m keeping Denny Hamlin out of my lineup with only one use left, and the No. 11 team also had starter issues when hitting the track for qualifying.
Lineup: Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, William Byron, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney Garage: Chase Briscoe
Our biggest pieces of the week — get covered for race day from all angles.
•NASCAR at Martinsville: Key info, qualifying reports and more | Read more • Bubble Watch: Three JGR drivers on the plus side of playoff picture | Read more • Paint Scheme Preview: Fresh designs set for short-track showdown | View gallery • Rivalry evolution: Larson on how competitive nature with Bell pushed him | Read more
• Hauler Talk: Martinsville a penultimate race worth monitoring | Read more • A legend’s legacy: Remembering Richie Evans’ Modified mastery | Read more
• Fresh grip: Goodyear debuts new left-side tire for Martinsville | Read more • At-track photos: Trackside sights, scenes from Round of 8 finale | View gallery
• Turning Point to Martinsville: JGR’s prospects for a Phoenix triple play | Read more • Power Rankings: Sizing up the eight postseason hopefuls | This week’s ranks • Neil Paine: Larson, Bell safe in the standings … to a point | Read more
• NASCAR Classics: Inside the video vault with Martinsville full-race replays | Watch now
• Playoff Pulse: Who’s hot, who’s not ahead of Martinsville | Read more
William Byron, one of four drivers realistically needing a victory at Martinsville Speedway to advance to the Championship 4 race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, picked the ideal moment to win his first pole position at the historic short track.
Covering the 0.526-mile distance in 19.286 seconds (98.185 mph) on Saturday, Byron edged non-playoff driver Ty Gibbs (98.175 mph) by 0.002 seconds for the top starting spot in Sunday’s Xfinity 500 (2 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).
The Busch Light Pole Award was Byron’s third of the year and 16th of his career, but his first since the eighth race of the 2025 season at Darlington Raceway.
Though he’s starting up front, Byron was wary of placing too much emphasis on his pole-winning run.
“It’s nice, but it doesn’t count for anything yet,” said the driver of the No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet, who starts Sunday’s race fifth in the playoff standings and 36 points below the cut line for the Nov. 2 Championship Race at Phoenix Raceway. “Yeah, it’s good. We’ve prepared well coming here, and I feel pretty good about my race car…
“You always want track position, and being on the pole is nice. It gives us a good pit stall — that’s probably the biggest key out of it — and it gives us a chance to control the race for a little bit.”
Byron’s teammate, Kyle Larson, fourth in the standings and 36 points above the elimination line, will start third after a lap at 98.038 mph. Playoff drivers Joey Logano (98.002 mph) and Denny Hamlin (97.876 mph) secured starting positions four and five for the final race in the Round of 8.
Logano is 38 points below the cut line in a virtual must-win situation. Hamlin and Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Chase Briscoe have already made the Championship 4 with victories in the Round of 8.
“You’re never satisfied or never happy until we win, but that’s a good starting spot for our Shell/Pennzoil Ford Mustang,” said Logano, the defending series champion. “I can see the front from there, and hopefully we’ll get one of the pit stalls we’re looking for, but we’re all or nothing.
“You just kind of have to keep that attitude all day and see if we can put it up there. It seems like our short-run speed was in the game. Our long-run speed was less than great, so we’ve got some work to do there.”
Cole Custer qualified sixth, followed by Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Briscoe and Austin Cindric. Along with Byron and Logano, Elliott and 31st-place qualifier Ryan Blaney almost certainly must win the race to advance.
Blaney has won the last two fall playoff races at Martinsville. His victory in 2023 led to a series championship.
Christopher Bell, 37 points above the elimination line, was the only other playoff driver outside the top 10 in time trials. He qualified 12th.
Elliott tops practice leaderboard
Facing a must-win situation, Elliott turned the quickest time in Cup Series practice on Saturday. The field was split into two groups, with each group receiving 25 minutes of track time.
Elliott turned a lap of 95.796 mph, besting spring race winner Hamlin (95.791 mph). Gibbs was third fastest (95.782 mph), followed by Bubba Wallace (95.738 mph) and Larson (95.728 mph). AJ Allmendinger was sixth overall and the best among Group 1 drivers, while Byron, Ty Dillon, Logano and Todd Gilliland completed the top 10.
MARTINSVILLE, Va. — Team Penske is on the verge of missing the Championship 4 for the first time since 2021 — the same team that has won every championship under the Next Gen banner since 2022.
Defending champ Joey Logano sits 38 points beneath the cutline, with teammate Ryan Blaney 47 points out. The duo is in must-win mode entering Sunday’s Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway (2 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
Both title winners and veterans of the sport, both enter Sunday’s 500-lapper focused on the task at hand.
“You just have to understand what needs to be done this weekend,” Blaney said Saturday. “You can’t control anything that happened last week. It’s in the past. It’s done. It’s how do we go into this weekend? We know what we have to do, and just go try to be 100% of what this 12 group can be. And I’d say that’s all I’ve ever asked of people in our group, is just give your best effort through the weekend. Just put up all of yourself. And if it’s enough, that’s awesome, and we were able to do it. If not, at least you know you did everything you could and nothing was left on the table, and you hold your heads high, win or lose.”
Logano enters as the reigning champion of the NASCAR Cup Series with one more chance to advance and defend his crown. The driver of the No. 22 Ford certainly feels the pressure attached to the moment — but he’s channeling that to his benefit.
“It affects some people negatively, sure,” Logano said of the pressure. “But to me, I’ve found ways to make it affect me in a positive way, where it just helps me find a little bit more. It gives me a little extra motivation. It’s a little fire, right? Those things are all good things. Some people might overdo it. Some people might do it to where they make mistakes. You see that throughout the playoffs all the time, the way the pressure affects everyone — teams, not just drivers, but teams all the way through. Crew members, the whole nine, everybody. I mean, that’s why I always say I love this format so much because it puts everyone in this crazy, really challenging position.”
Blaney has won each of the past two fall races at Martinsville to lock his way into the Championship 4. With that kind of track record, the No. 12 team is seen as a major favorite heading into the Round of 8 finale all over again. But after last week’s race at Talladega Superspeedway, the 2023 champion cautioned it’s simply not that easy. His crew chief, Jonathan Hassler, concurs.
“I agree entirely with what Ryan says about that,” Hassler said in a Wednesday teleconference. “Yes, we won there twice. It’s certainly not easy to do. It doesn’t come on its own. We don’t bring the same setup from the spring. It only comes with a lot of hard work, and the only way we’re gonna do it again is to bear down and work hard, have a good car, and make sure we’re in the picture at the end of the race.
“We have to focus on the fact and approach the race as if we haven’t done it before. We have to go and do it again.”
Hassler said Blaney has a specific feel he seeks at Martinsville, with an approach that allows him to pass, something he typically addresses in practice.
“Just a lot of previous notes (and) history,” Blaney said ahead of Saturday’s session. “I just try to have that feel. And hey, if I’m this way in practice, I need to be prepared for the track to take this little step in this certain direction, and let’s guard against that — or let’s work towards that. I need double what I think I need at the time. So a lot of track history and experience definitely helps that out, and you hope you hit it right.”
Few teams have the reputation of working in sync the way Team Penske does. There are no setup secrets between the teams of Blaney, Logano, Austin Cindric and Wood Brothers Racing’s Josh Berry. Logano has one win in his Martinsville starts, but has finished inside the top 10 in each of his last 12 appearances. What has he gleaned from Blaney’s recent run of success at the 0.526-mile short track?
“The majority of the last 10 races here or so have been really solid,” Logano said of Blaney’s Martinsville prowess. “So yeah, we naturally look at that and say, ‘OK, what can I apply as a driver?’ Obviously, we see setup stuff of what they’re doing and those type of things, but yeah, he’s got a couple traits that are pretty apparent that he’s really good at. And trying to fight your natural instincts to drive like someone, that’s hard to do, right? I mean, it’s asking a basketball player to shoot a different style, right? Like, this is how I do it. I’ve done this for years. And now you’ve got to try something different.
“That’s hard to do, but it doesn’t mean you can’t do it. It’s just that you’ve got to try to buy into it, understand why and try to apply certain things like that.”
In practice, Logano posted the 30th-fastest lap with Blaney 31st.
“I think it had decent short-run speed. Our long-run speed was a little off,” Logano told truTV during qualifying. “I think we can dial that in and get a little bit closer, but I think we’re in the game here.”
Their long-run speed was marginally better, with Blaney ranked 12th in 30-lap averages of the 25 drivers who ran 30 consecutive laps, and Logano 14th in 30-lap averages. Blaney acknowledged the impact of Goodyear’s new, softer left-side tire for this weekend that he observed in practice, but he remains optimistic for Sunday’s Xfinity 500.
“I feel like left-rear conservation is going to be a really big deal (Sunday),” Blaney told truTV. “I know a lot of guys were kind of killing left-rear tires and things like that. That’s good, though, with fall-off and things like that. We’ll see how it is tomorrow. But I feel like I’m decent speed-wise. I feel like we can really work on the car in a good direction to get better and be a little bit more in the game.”
Logano will start fourth, while Blaney will start 31st on Sunday.
See where your favorite NASCAR Cup Series, NASCAR Xfinity Series and NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series drivers will pit this weekend at Martinsville Speedway.
NASCAR Cup Series
Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway on Sunday (2 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).
The NASCAR Cup Series, Xfinity Series and Craftsman Truck Series continue the playoff action this weekend in Virginia, each wrapping up their respective Round of 8s and finalizing the 2025 Championship 4 contenders at Martinsville Speedway. Bookmark this page and come back often for your race-week essentials — from links to qualifying order, average practice speeds, results and more.
Race day: Sunday at 2 p.m. ET on NBC. The categories listed below will be filled out with links as the information becomes available.
Tires: Eleven sets for the weekend (nine new race sets, one set transferred from qualifying, one for practice). Teams will also be allotted four wet-weather sets, if necessary.
Race day: Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on The CW. The categories listed below will be filled out with links as the information becomes available.
Tires: Five sets for the weekend (three new race sets, one set transferred from qualifying, one for practice). Teams will also be allotted three wet-weather sets, if necessary.
Race day: Friday at 6 p.m. ET on FS1. The categories listed below will be filled out with links as the information becomes available.
Tires: Four sets for the weekend (two new race sets, one set transferred from qualifying, one for practice). Teams will also be allotted three wet-weather sets, if necessary.
