The NASCAR Cup Series and Xfinity Series are in action this weekend at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez for a doubleheader in Mexico City. Bookmark this page and come back often for your race-week essentials — from links to qualifying order, average practice speeds, results and more.

NASCAR Cup Series

Race day: Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on Prime Video. The categories listed below will be filled out with links as the information is available.

Tires: Three sets for practice, one set for qualifying and six sets for the race (including qualifying scuffs). Six sets of wet-weather tires will be available for the weekend if needed. 

Entry list
Qualifying Order
Practice 1 Results
Practice 2 Results
Practice Lap Averages
Practice Lap Times
Qualifying Results
Pit Stalls
Stage 1 Results
Stage 2 Results
Race Results

NASCAR Xfinity Series

Race day: Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET on The CW. The categories listed below will be filled out with links as the information is available.

Tires: Six sets for the event. Four sets of wet-weather tires will be available for the weekend if needed. 

Entry list
Qualifying Order
Practice Results
Practice Lap Averages 
Practice Lap Times 
Qualifying Results
Pit Stalls
Stage 1 Results
Stage 2 Results
Race Results

MEXICO CITY — Four-time NASCAR Cup Series champ and current Hendrick Motorsports executive Jeff Gordon was recently asked on a Barstool Sports podcast about changes the sanctioning body is considering for the cars and he was ready with a well-considered answer.

He doesn’t think the answer is as simple as increasing horsepower and bolting on softer tires, however.

MORE: Mexico schedule | Cup standings

“If we thought as a team adding horsepower, adding softer tires, was going to be the fix-all … it’s not. Adding horsepower I think, at certain tracks like the mile tracks and half-mile tracks, I like — I think we’re too glued to the race track right now,” said Gordon, whose team drivers William Byron and Kyle Larson are ranked first and second in the championship standings. “So, adding power, I like. Adding as much power as I think maybe it takes would do two things: number one, cost, I hate bringing up cost but we’re talking about components that won’t last. Not just in the engine. So that’s one.

“And then the other is,’” he continued, “it might make the cars harder to drive and the drivers like it more but that doesn’t mean that it’s going to be a better race. Then on the Goodyear side of things they’re trying really, really hard. I’ve learned a softer tire doesn’t necessarily mean more fall-off and that’s what we want.

“We don’t need a softer tire; we need a tire that has grip and then falls off where the driver and team have to manage the tire wear.”

For the first time in history, NASCAR Cup Series drivers turned laps at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Mexico City in two practice sessions.

Front Row Motorsports’ Todd Gilliland was quickest in Practice 2 at 93.181 mph over Ross Chastain (93.041 mph) and Ty Gibbs (92.865 mph).

RELATED: Practice 2 results | At-track photos: Mexico City 

Ryan Blaney (92.837 mph) and Chris Buescher (92.726 mph) rounded out the top five.

Ryan Preece (92.669 mph), Austin Cindric (92.651 mph), Joey Logano (92.641 mph), Daniel Suárez (92.633 mph) and Shane van Gisbergen (92.601 mph) completed the top 10.

After posting the fastest time in Practice 1, Michael McDowell (92.163 mph) was 25th-fastest in the second session.

Noah Gragson was the only driver who did not turn a lap in Practice 2 after Front Row confirmed on social media that he will go to a backup car for Sunday’s race after an earlier crash.

Practice 1

Spire Motorsports driver Michael McDowell topped the leaderboard in Practice 1 at 92.657 mph, besting Joe Gibbs Racing drivers Chase Briscoe (92.547 mph) and Ty Gibbs (92.542 mph).

Austin Cindric (92.528 mph) and Kyle Larson (92.439 mph) rounded out the top five.

Chris Buescher (92.427 mph), Joey Logano (92.401 mph), Ross Chastain (92.349 mph), Shane van Gisbergen (92.330 mph) and Todd Gilliland (92.276 mph) completed the top 10.

MORE: Practice 1 results

After being called up by JGR to replace Denny Hamlin for the weekend, Ryan Truex finished his first session in the No. 11 Toyota 36th-fastest with a speed of 90.946 mph.

As the learning process got underway, the 15-turn, 2.42-mile Mexico City circuit proved to be tricky for the drivers. Turn 4 was one of the most challenging spots as Cindric missed his braking point and Noah Gragson contacted the wall in the same area. Others had trouble slowing their cars down in time to make the corner.

Cup Series drivers get back on track Saturday at 2:05 p.m. ET for qualifying (Prime Video, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

MEXICO CITY — Ryan Truex says he found out Wednesday evening that he’d be lacing up his racing shoes for Sunday’s first NASCAR Cup Series race in Mexico, subbing in for Joe Gibbs Racing while Denny Hamlin is on paternity leave.

There’s plenty at stake for the 33-year-old driver: his first Cup start since 2014, a high-profile ride in the No. 11 Toyota, but also one other important factor. Thanks to brother Martin Truex Jr., he has his family reputation to uphold.

“I texted him this week when I found out, and he said, ‘you know, the Truexes are 1-for-1 in Mexico,’ so no pressure,” Ryan Truex said Friday, recalling his older brother’s 2005 win in what is now the Xfinity Series. “I’m glad he could throw that at me.”

Another NASCAR series will debut at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Sunday’s Viva Mexico 250 (3 p.m. ET, Prime Video, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), and just like 20 years ago, another Truex will be in it. Hamlin’s decision to skip Sunday’s race to remain home with his family after the birth of his third child opened the door for Truex to fill in. Hamlin, a three-time winner this year, requested and has been granted a waiver by NASCAR officials to retain his eligibility for the Cup Series Playoffs.

RELATED: Weekend schedule | Hamlin to miss Mexico race

Truex has been a potential substitute for the No. 11 team the last three weekends leading up to the Mexico City event and was also a fill-in option in practice for Tyler Reddick of fellow Toyota team 23XI Racing during Coca-Cola 600 practice. But the tumult of navigating international travel one day after getting the call from JGR, Truex admits, has been a lot.

“It’s been a crazy few weeks — especially since Charlotte, I’ve been on standby,” said the younger Truex, who will be making his first national-series start since the Xfinity season opener at Daytona. “I’m glad it is at a track where I can practice and have time and know what to do. I found out on Wednesday night, so it has been kind of chaotic getting here and putting all of that together, but I’m just grateful for the experience and grateful to be here. Really just want to enjoy it. I don’t really have any set goals or expectations — I just want to enjoy the weekend. I’m driving a Cup car for Joe Gibbs at an international race — this is not something I ever dreamed of doing, (so) just want to take it all in and have a good time.”

Truex said that each time he received a text from No. 11 crew chief Chris Gayle in recent weeks, his heart jumped, wondering if his driving duties would be needed. When that moment came, Gayle and the team went about making adjustments to the car’s interior — pedal heights, especially — during Friday’s garage hours at the Mexico City circuit.

“It is really easy working with him, and for us, we’ve already had him in preparation for one of those other realities,” Gayle told NASCAR.com. “We had him in the car and said, ‘OK, what are our options? What do we need to do to get him to crawl in if Denny was getting out, or if he was running the whole weekend?’ So he saw us kind of work in the car this morning, kind of get the whole plan for, OK, Ryan’s around the whole weekend. Let’s get it closer to what he wants.”

Gayle said he has not served as Truex’s crew chief before, but there’s a level of familiarity with him. Truex has been a fixture in JGR’s simulator testing, plus he’s scored all three of his Xfinity Series career wins in Gibbs equipment in the last two seasons with the program.

“We did get one full day (of simulator time) in with him, which is kind of normal prep for a normal weekend with him this week before here, so that part’s been seamless,” Gayle said. “He’s been around for a while, we know him, obviously know his brother, all the rest. So it’s been pretty easy.”

MORE: At-track photos: Mexico City

The simulator experience promises to give Truex better footing on a road course that’s new to the majority of drivers in the field. It’s also an opportunity for a sense of redemption from his only past stint in the Cup Series — a handful of spot starts in 2013 before what was planned to be a full-season go for BK Racing the next year. That tenure came to a halt when the two sides parted company nine races before the season’s end after eight DNFs and otherwise subpar performance.

“My last time in Cup was not a fun experience. It didn’t go well for me. I didn’t enjoy it,” Truex said. “That was probably not the right move for me, career-wise, and I’ve kind of been fighting back since then. I enjoy everything I do at JGR. I’ve been able to race part-time the last couple of years, and do all of this stuff away from the track. It has been nice. It has been fun to race part-time and have some Saturdays at home, but it is also fun to be at the track, so I feel like I’ve had a good balance the last few years, and the Cup cars then are so different than what they are now. I have some experience now with the Gen-7 car with some testing and things and doing the sim stuff every single week — I feel like I’ve run a million laps here already the past month. I definitely feel like I’m ready.”

Ryan Truex was just two weeks shy of his 13th birthday when older brother Martin prevailed on the metropolitan road course in March 2005 while on the way to his second consecutive Xfinity Series championship. The younger Truex recalled the “super nervous” feeling of watching his brother leading, facing a stout challenge from home-nation star Adrián Fernández.

The Mexico City course layout has changed in the 20 years that have passed, but one thing that hasn’t is big brother’s direct nature when talking racing.

“He’s been good for advice,” Ryan Truex said. “I did ask him about Michigan — and he just said ‘a lot of throttle.’ That was his whole debrief with me — ‘a lot of throttle.’ What you guys see on TV, that is him. That’s how he is — short and to the point. If I ask him stuff, he will tell me, but I don’t know how much it will translate from 2005.”

If it does, Sunday could provide a sentimental Truex 2-for-2.

An eye-opening stretch in the Cup Series calendar begins Sunday with the inaugural event at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez (3 p.m. ET, Prime Video, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), the first points race in Cup outside the United States since 1958.

The trek to Mexico City is just the first of three road-course events (Chicago, Sonoma) to take place over the next five weeks, with the “Tricky Triangle” of Pocono Raceway and close-quartered drafting at EchoPark Speedway (formerly Atlanta Motor Speedway) sandwiched between.

It’s going to be a thrilling start to summer in NASCAR, which is bound to cause drama in the playoff picture. Let’s take a look at whose postseason fortunes can improve or worsen south of the border.

mexico playoff predictor
Playoff Probabilities provided by Racing Insights (entering Mexico)

RELATED: Mexico schedule | Cup Series standings

GREEN FLAG [Drivers in a great spot for Mexico]

Mexico’s Daniel Suárez immediately jumps out to have a fairy tale finish realized this Sunday. 2025 has been an incredibly trying year for the No. 99 Trackhouse Racing team. With a current playoff probability of 9.73%, according to Racing Insights, Suárez sits 28th in points, 68 markers off the elimination line. But all fortunes can flip for the ninth-year Cup veteran in his home country. His first Cup win came at the Sonoma road course in 2022, followed by his Atlanta victory last year in a three-wide tilt. Suárez has a flair for the dramatic when he runs up front, and while that hasn’t been the case on road courses recently (one top 10 in the last 13 events), the No. 99 team is bound to have some tricks up their sleeve this weekend.

If you are looking for certainty on Sunday, look no further than Chris Buescher. Coming off a season-best runner-up at Michigan, the No. 17 RFK Racing Ford saw his playoff probability skyrocket 14.31 points to 59%, the highest percentage change of all drivers after the trip to the Irish Hills. Over the next month, Buescher should be feasting for points and potential wins as he boasts an 8.72 average finish in the Gen 7 car on road courses.

YELLOW FLAG [Drivers in a good spot, but have poor road-course stats]

Putting Chase Briscoe back on the spot again. Two consecutive poles followed up with little to show for it. The weekend trends have flipped for the No. 19 JGR camp, which struggled on Saturdays but made up for it in races earlier in the season. Briscoe has finished outside the top 15 in back-to-back weeks, and his playoff probability dipped down over nine points to 69.96% entering this weekend. Sitting 41 points above the elimination line, Briscoe will either need to maximize stage points on pit strategy or qualify and stay up front, something that’s been easier said than done so far this month.

Ryan Preece is tethered right on the elimination line with Kyle Busch as the pair of drivers own the same amount of points heading to Mexico. I’m more confident in Busch’s chances this weekend, given his top-five run at Circuit of The Americas earlier this season. However, the No. 60 driver finished 33rd at COTA and has a best finish of just ninth in 24 road-course starts.

RACING INSIGHTS: Results projections for Mexico

RED FLAG [Drivers I’m concerned about heading to Mexico]

Bubba Wallace hasn’t hidden the fact that his road-course prowess isn’t up to par; he owns just three top 10s in 33 career road-course starts. His playoff probability increased by almost five points after Michigan to 87.96%. The No. 23 23XI Racing crew will likely try to pull off a similar strategy to COTA earlier this season, where they finished 20th but maximized on points, winning Stage 1 and finishing inside the top 10 in Stage 2.

The pressure is on the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports team and Alex Bowman this weekend. Dropping 5.86 points in his probability (37.83%), Bowman is now the last driver projected into the playoffs, and there’s still over two months left before the 16-driver field is set. The Tucson, Arizona native is one of the better road-course drivers at the Cup level, and he’ll need every bit of it on Sunday. He won the Chicago Street Race last season and owns five top 10s in the previous nine road-course races.

MEXICO CITY — Travel issues for teams leaving the Charlotte area have forced competition officials to alter the on-track schedule for this weekend’s NASCAR events at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez.

According to NASCAR officials, two aircraft issues grounded multiple race teams back in North Carolina on Thursday, delaying their arrival for the first race weekend featuring the Cup Series in Mexico City.

RELATED: Weekend schedule | Paint Scheme Preview

The major adjustment will be a delay for the Xfinity Series, which will shift from two Friday practices (a 50-minute session plus a 25-minute stint) to one 50-minute practice Saturday at 11:05 a.m. ET. Qualifying, which will split the field into two groups, will begin Saturday at 12:10 p.m. ET. That prep time comes before the Xfinity Series’ The Chilango 150 on Saturday (4:30 p.m. ET, The CW, MRN Radio, SiriusXM Radio).

The Cup Series, which will hold the Viva Mexico 250 on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, Prime Video, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), will shift its two Friday practice sessions to 4:05 p.m. ET and 5:30 p.m. ET. The first session will last 50 minutes, with the second going for 25 minutes.

Sunday’s schedule for the Cup Series remains unchanged.

The pair of NASCAR Mexico Series events have also been rescheduled, with the first race now Friday at 1:30 p.m. ET and the second on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET.

MEXICO CITY — NASCAR’s arrival in Mexico City has been hard to miss, even in a metropolis with a population of 22.5 million people. If you weren’t close enough to hear the Cup Series haulers blaring their horns as they wound their way into the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez circuit Thursday afternoon, the seemingly omnipresent billboards and colorful advertisements around town heralded the news.

The preparations for the first points-paying race for NASCAR’s top series outside of the United States in 67 years entered their final stages on the eve of Friday’s first on-track action. Thursday also brought a sneak peek of the 2.42-mile circuit that will host Sunday’s Viva Mexico 250 (3 p.m. ET, Prime Video, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), courtesy of a bus tour with Trackhouse Racing’s Ross Chastain providing commentary along its 15 turns in a driving rainstorm.

RELATED: Weekend schedule | Paint Scheme Preview

The Cup Series garage will officially open in earnest Friday morning, marking one of the later phases in the logistical dance to bring the NASCAR industry’s operations to a foreign country. The venue that Thursday’s early arrivals found is a sprawl of grandstands and stadium elements for fans, unique challenges for the drivers and rich history for those nostalgia-minded buffs.

Notices about the event mixed in amidst the murals along the bustling city streets, frequently featuring the face of national sports hero Daniel Suárez. The series’ only Mexican-born driver unveiled his specially painted helmet for the race weekend, sporting a design that reflects his home country’s culture in festive colors. The local media were there in force, an extension of the publicity that’s been rampant on Spanish-speaking sports networks in the days leading up to this debut weekend.

Chastain, Suárez’s Trackhouse teammate, was asked how much of the local culture he’d been able to soak up and if he knew the Spanish word for watermelon, a product he grows and promotes diligently from his farm in Florida. “Sandía!” Chastain replied, noting he’s known the word since childhood.

Learning the local race track may be another matter. A slow lap of the track in a double-decker bus took off from the main straightaway, which at 3,937 feet ranks as the longest frontstretch in NASCAR — a straight shot topped only by the 4,000-foot superstretch at the back portion of Talladega Superspeedway.

The Hermanos Rodríguez straight ends in a quick right-left-right series marking Turns 1 through 3, a prime opportunity for passing and potential calamity.

“Definitely a long straightaway to think about a lot of things and then decide how late we could brake, and there’s not a lot of penalty,” Chastain said. “There’s a lot of grass and runoff areas. That’s nice. I do better when I have runoff so I can spin out in practice. I fully plan to go off track a couple times to find the limits.”

MORE: At-track photos: Mexico City

If there’s trouble at the other end of the track, it will come in front of the most densely populated sections for fans. The Estadio GNP Seguros stadium section once hosted Taylor Swift for a four-night residency, but this weekend it will be a desirable vantage point for a compact series of Turns 10 through 14, the lowest-speed portion of the circuit.

As the bus made its way through the technical curves before exiting through a cutout in the U-shaped Foro Sol grandstand, Chastain — through the windshield wipers’ swipes — was reminded of a historic course closer to home.

“Right there, it felt like Bristol,” he said, making a nod to the “Last Great Colosseum” seating. “Like I couldn’t see out, the stands were so high, so that’s what it felt like.”

The audience and publicity will likely only rise when the engines fire to life Friday. For that and the main event ahead, Chastain has high hopes.

“I’m proud to be one of the drivers to take the green flag for the first international points race here for the Cup Series on Sunday,” he said. “It’s really cool. It’s going to go down in our history, and I think the history of Mexico.”

Denny Hamlin will not compete in Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Mexico City, he and Joe Gibbs Racing confirmed Thursday.

Hamlin and fiancée Jordan Fish welcomed a baby boy, Hamlin announced in a statement on X, but Hamlin, driver of the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, will remain home with his family, missing Sunday’s Viva Mexico 250 at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez.

MORE: Mexico City schedule | Cup standings

“We are happy to announce the birth of our son,” Hamlin said in a statement. “Everyone is doing well. My main priority is to be here at home for Jordan and our family over the next few days when she is able to go home and we transition to life as a family of five.”

Hamlin’s absence will mark his first Cup race missed since March 2014, when he was sidelined from a race at Auto Club Speedway due to health reasons. A three-time winner in 2025, Hamlin has requested and been granted a waiver to remain eligible for the Cup Series Playoffs, retaining the 18 playoff points he has earned despite missing this weekend’s event.

Before the season began, NASCAR’s competition officials listed the birth of a child as one example of circumstances in which a driver would retain their points and eligibility despite missing a race.

Substituting for Hamlin in the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota will be Ryan Truex, a three-time winner in the NASCAR Xfinity Series who will make his first Cup start since 2014. Truex made 11 Xfinity starts in 2024 and competed in the series’ 2025 season-opening race in February at Daytona International Speedway.

The NASCAR Cup Series will compete at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez Sunday at 3 p.m. ET (Prime Video, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), the division’s first international points race since 1958.

The NASCAR Xfinity Series marks its return to Mexico with Saturday afternoon’s The Chilango 150 (4:30 p.m. ET, The CW, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). The series has held four previous races at the famed Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez — the last in 2008, won by Kyle Busch.

This is the second of seven road-course races on the schedule. JR Motorsports’ Connor Zilisch, a rookie this season, won the first at Circuit of The Americas from pole position.

MORE: Mexico City schedule | Xfinity standings

Reigning series champion and JRM driver Justin Allgaier earned his third win of the season in the series’ most recent race two weeks ago at Nashville Superspeedway. It marks the fifth time in the last eight years the veteran has scored at least three victories in a season. He holds a 92-point advantage in the championship standings over fellow three-race winner Austin Hill of Richard Childress Racing.

The Illinois native has answered his first career title run with another top-shelf season in the No. 7 JRM Chevrolet. He leads all drivers in laps led (638) and top-10 finishes (10). He’s only eight top-10 finishes from 300 in his career — a feat never before accomplished in the series.

With 12 regular-season races remaining and six playoff spots still to be claimed, Mexico City certainly presents all the makings of an ultra-competitive weekend.

Sam Mayer and Ty Gibbs have the most road-course wins (four) in this weekend’s field. Interestingly, nine of the series’ last 11 road-course races have been won by just three drivers (Mayer, Shane van Gisbergen and Zilisch). And Mayer, who is ranked third in the standings, is still looking for his first win of the year.

Gibbs, driving the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota this weekend, is among three Cup Series regulars racing Saturday, joining Daniel Suárez (No. 9 JRM Chevy) and Christopher Bell (No. 24 Sam Hunt Racing Toyota). Craftsman Truck Series rookie Andrés Pérez de Lara will be making his Xfinity Series debut in the No. 91 DGM Racing x JIM Chevrolet.

Kennametal Pole Qualifying is slated for 12:10 p.m. ET on Saturday (The CW App) and historically has proven very significant on road courses, with the polesitter winning 10 of the last 18 road-course races.

To say the learning curve has been steep in Shane van Gisbergen’s first full Cup Series season would be a massive understatement.

After winning his debut NASCAR race (at any level) on the Chicago Street Course in 2023, then performing well in a full-time Xfinity Series ride last year — while also holding his own in part-time Cup action — SVG seemed as ready for the sport’s highest level as anyone could be. But facing the best week-in and week-out, on a variety of different track types, is an entirely different challenge.

That’s something van Gisbergen has found out the hard way in 2025 thus far, proving that sustained success isn’t guaranteed for even the most talented and experienced drivers. But despite the rough transition, there might still be light in his playoff hopes this year. Based on the upcoming schedule — starting with this weekend’s Viva Mexico 250 in Mexico City — we might just be entering SVG season after all.

RELATED: Cup Series standings | Shane van Gisbergen driver page

Based on the first half of the 2025 season alone, that might sound like an extreme long shot. After all, SVG’s performance is down markedly from what we might have expected from his 2024 form: His average Driver Rating in the Cup Series had been 64.7 in 12 starts — not too far from the series average of around 70 — and in Xfinity, it had been even better, 76.9 in 33 races. And yet, despite that prior record, van Gisbergen has an average rating of just 48.1 in 15 races, which ranks 33rd out of 36 full-time drivers this season.

shane van gisbergen's numbers in 2024 compared to 2025

The race-level results aren’t any better, either. Coming off of an 18th-place run at Michiganone of his better finishes this season, despite running worse than the placement would indicate (he ranked 24th in Driver Rating and 28th in average running position) — van Gisbergen has zero wins, zero top fives, a single top 10 (more below) and an average finish of 25.3, earning him a 33rd-place ranking in the standings.

In terms of road-racing prowess, the bread-and-butter of SVG’s racing background, his form has remained very strong, albeit in a sample of just one race (COTA) 15 weeks ago. SVG led 23 of 95 laps, finished top five in the first two stages and posted a 120.5 Driver Rating — second-highest in the field — en route to finishing sixth. But the rest has been nothing short of disappointing.

After doing well at drafting-style tracks and running decently on traditional ovals in Xfinity last season, there was the hope that he would consistently turn in respectable performances in both categories this Cup season. But van Gisbergen has a sub-50 rating on each track type so far, ranking fourth-worst on ovals and third-worst on drafting tracks — a costly collapse, considering those tracks have made up 12 of the 15 races on the schedule so far.

And while we knew short tracks would probably be a weakness this season, SVG’s abysmal 28.3 average rating there (again, in a small sample — two races: Martinsville and Bristol) has been the worst in Cup so far this season. Not only that, but it’s currently tracking as the 21st-lowest average rating on short tracks in a season since 2005, with a minimum of two races on those tracks in a season.

MORE: Mexico City weekend schedule

None of that would seem to paint the portrait of a driver with playoff potential written all over him. To channel legendary football coach Jim Mora: “Playoffs?” A driver with these stats might just be hoping to stay in Cup! But of course, van Gisbergen isn’t just any driver. He’s arguably the most gifted — and feared — road-course specialist in the sport today. See those road-racing stats from earlier: even in an otherwise bad year, he still was a threat to dominate when last we saw him darting around the track in Austin.

Now, after a long and mostly miserable stretch without a road course in sight, van Gisbergen will be back in his element again. Including this week’s race, three of the next five dates on the Cup calendar are road courses: Mexico City — a new Cup Series track where SVG might have an extra advantage, given his history of adapting to relatively unknown circuits — Chicago Street Course — where SVG has a win — and Sonoma — where he won from pole position in Xfinity last year. And if he doesn’t win any of those, there’s also Watkins Glen — where he scored a 2nd-place finish in his lone career start — as one additional chance with three races to go before the playoff field is set:

shane van gisbergen's opportunities to win before the 2025 nascar cup series playoffs begin

In other words, as rough as things have been early this season for the full-time Cup rookie, van Gisbergen can play a unique trump card that gives him far higher playoff odds than would otherwise be expected from his full-season numbers. He is a near-automatic favorite (or close to it) on a specific type of track — and those tracks are about to come up fast and furious as we look ahead to the regular-season stretch run. While the odds for Mexico City haven’t come out yet, my statistical track scouting system lists SVG as the best bet to win based on his overall road-course pedigree. It would be shocking if SVG didn’t have a strong run this weekend.

And that’s the beauty of a NASCAR playoff system that rewards winning over just about everything else: A single standout performance on one of the upcoming road courses could instantly transform van Gisbergen’s frustrating year into another winning season — and a playoff campaign. If there’s anyone built to pull that dramatic turnaround off in the next handful of weeks, it’s SVG.