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TALLADEGA, Ala. — Brad Keselowski knows exactly how Matt Kenseth is feeling.
The No. 2 Team Penske driver needed a win last season at Talladega to advance to the Eliminator Round of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. Kenseth is in the same situation this year entering Sunday’s CampingWorld.com 500 at Talladega Superspeedway (2 p.m. ET, NBCSN, MRN, Sirius XM).
“I think you’re looking at this weekend and there are certainly gonna be some people that race scared and racing scared, to me, means sometimes you race not to win, but to not lose as far as the points are concerned,” Keselowski said Friday at Talladega.
Keselowski didn’t have the luxury of racing for points last season, just as Kenseth doesn’t this weekend. That urgency and win-or-be-eliminated mentality plays a huge part in strategy.
It’s a delicate balance, racing hard to win while avoiding the “Big Ones” that characterize the 2.66-mile Alabama track, particularly on the final laps. But sometimes that urgency to win supersedes anything else — even if that means creating chaos through the rest of the field.
“The only real reference that I have from personal experience is last fall, and I certainly made riskier and bolder moves than I would have made otherwise, because at this point the penalty for a bad day is really nothing,” Keselowski said. “The teams take more chances and there are more teams taking chances.”
The Chase element at Talladega this weekend causes chivalry to fade and “driver code” to fall to the wayside, as drivers like Kenseth — and likely Dale Earnhardt Jr. — will fight for their championship hopes come Sunday afternoon.
“It’s all about being in the right place and being positioned properly and not making just the right moves for yourself, but yet (anticipating) the moves that the rest of the cars make, too,” Kenseth said. “Certainly being a race in the Chase everybody’s kind of on a different agenda or some people are locked in and are just going to help their teammates – there’s all kinds of different scenarios.”
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Keselowski’s situation differs this season as he sits seventh of 12 drivers, which gives him the option to play the points game. But whether or not he’ll race up front the entire time or hang toward the back and charge to the front remains to be seen.
Fellow Chase driver Jeff Gordon — who is tied with Earnhardt Jr. for the most wins among active drivers at Talladega with six — has certainly worked every angle of the superspeedway, trying to find that perfect formula.
“I’ve tried every approach known possible, to hang out in the back (and) be really conservative, to be up front (and) be really aggressive,” Gordon said. “It’s a balance. You have to take each moment and experience and try and make the most of it.”
Track position dictates much of a driver’s initial strategy and is an element that Gordon believes is crucial, especially at superspeedway tracks.
“If you have a car that qualifies up front — like the last time we were here — try to maintain that track position, you have to be a little bit more aggressive,” Gordon said. “I watched Dale Jr. do an excellent job (in May) and there were a few other guys as well. They protect that position when they’re up front impressively.
“So, there’s a fine line that can get you in trouble as well. But I can tell you, it’s been a lot harder when you get shuffled back here to work your way up to the front than it used to be. People are smarter, cars are more equal, the drafting/aerodynamics are just different than they used to be and it’s hard to make that work if you get behind. I’m hoping we qualify up front.”
But even with the most pristine plan in place, Keselowski ultimately likens game-planning for Sunday’s race to Mike Tyson’s famous quote: “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.”
Quite simply, drivers can’t plan anything at Talladega.
“Everybody has a plan here, or an approach, until they drop the green and then it usually doesn’t work,” Keselowski said. “We’ve had some really good approaches here in the past that have worked, but we’ll just have to see. I’m not really all that interested in sharing what my plan is now, but hopefully it’ll play out.”
