BRISTOL, Tenn. — Ty Gibbs has led 503 laps in his still-budding NASCAR Cup Series career. A whopping 239 of those — 47.5% — have been led at Bristol Motor Speedway.
The 21-year-old sophomore pilot of the No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota is looking to add more to that total in Saturday night’s NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs elimination race in the Round of 16.
Gibbs enters 12th in the standings, six points above the elimination line that will see four of the 16 postseason drivers’ chances to win a championship come to an end. In fact, Gibbs is tied with future teammate Chase Briscoe for the final spots above the pivotal separator. And what better track for Gibbs to defend a margin and advance than Bristol? He led a career-high 137 laps in the spring at the 0.533-mile short track, backing up a performance under the lights last year in which he led 102 circuits.
“This place is so much fun, so I always look forward to coming here and racing,” Gibbs said Friday afternoon. “Just such a fun track, so unique. I feel like it’s a driver’s track in a way, kind of I feel like I put in the (category of) Darlington and Homestead. It’s just a fun place.”
Despite leading the second-most laps in April’s 500-lap race, Gibbs wasn’t sure what exactly he learned. Severe tire wear threw the field for a loop, leaving the Charlotte, North Carolina native more perplexed than anything else with a ninth-place finish.
“The one time I went the hardest, I drove all the way to the lead, had no tire issues and won the stage,” Gibbs said. “And then the last part of the race, I saved and had tire problems. So I don’t know. We’ll see.”
Brittney Wilbur | NASCAR Digital Media
What we saw Friday was another fast No. 54 Toyota. Gibbs set the fastest single lap during the extended 45-minute session at 124.719 mph (15.385 seconds), besting defending Cup Series champion Ryan Blaney, 2021 champ Kyle Larson, 2023 Championship 4 finalist William Byron and 2020 title winner Chase Elliott. He was also eighth-fastest in 30-lap averages, meaning there may be some long-run speed in his vehicle to boot.
His Cup experience is limited, but Gibbs knows what feel he is looking for behind the wheel.
“You have to be, I think, a little bit free to roll the center, but you can’t be too free, so I think it’s a pretty fine balance,” he said. “But if you’re too free, you can just run the top. Usually, you can make up for it. So that’s what’s fun here is you can move around.”
Gibbs has playoff experience thanks to his 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series championship campaign, but this is his debut year in the NASCAR Cup Series postseason. On the precipice of his first experience in a Cup elimination race on the bubble, Gibbs said he is not intimidated by the task ahead Saturday.
“I mean, it’s, of course, it’s hard, and going to the Cup Series is always a big jump,” Gibbs said. “But I feel like we’re working the hardest we can and go try to make it happen. And if we make it happen, we do; if we don’t, we don’t. But we just try to give 100% effort the whole time, and same with me on the track, same with my pit crew, and try to make it happen.”
Gibbs will fire off 13th in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race (7 ET, USA, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).
The Round of 16 delivered yet another dose of mayhem, with Chris Buescher playing spoiler and doing so in an all-time fashion at Watkins Glen. Saturday’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race (7 p.m. ET, USA, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) at Bristol Motor Speedway is shaping up to be an exciting wrap-up of a wild-card round with a handful of big names on the bubble and one last chance to advance.
After practice and qualifying, Racing Insights expects the gladiators of Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin and Ty Gibbs to battle their way into the Round of 12 with projected top-five efforts. Other bubble drivers like Brad Keselowski and William Byron are predicted to be in the mix, with solid metrics pointing them to seventh- and ninth-place finishes, respectively.
Underdogs like Daniel Suárez and Austin Cindric have been riding momentum waves, rocketing up the standings the last two weeks with solid performances. However, coming in with projected results well outside of the top 15 is something to watch, especially if all the top dogs show up as Racing Insights expects. Still, with how they are seeded, it would take more than one herculean effort to knock one of them out.
As if tensions weren’t already high for an elimination race, because so many playoff drivers found trouble last week, there is more pressure for title hopefuls to have a clean day. One thing is for sure: The 12 drivers who move on will have mastered one chaotic round and be one step closer to championship glory.
DENNY HAMLIN: The 2024 playoffs started slowly and got worse for Hamlin last week at Watkins Glen after a Lap 1 wreck. The positive? Hamlin’s won the last two races at Bristol and owns top-10 finishes in six of the last eight Bristol races. Plus, out of the last eight short-track races, Hamlin has finished in the top three in six of them.
RYAN BLANEY: The reigning champ entered 45 markers to the good at The Glen; he left only 29 points above. His best finish in the Next Gen car on the high banks of Bristol is 16th and he has a career average finish of 19.5 at the track. It would still take a lot for Blaney to get bounced out, but someone has to fall if the advance metric expects drivers on the bubble to rise.
TY GIBBS: Gibbs will be making his 80th Cup start and is very much lurking toward a win. He’s finished in the top 10 in the last two Bristol races and also led north of 100 laps in each contest. The sophomore driver has also been able to stay clean and finish races with only two DNFs this year.
MARTIN TRUEX JR.: Bristol isn’t one of Truex’s best tracks, with only three top fives in 34 starts. However, in the Bristol race last year, he picked himself up and got out of a seven-point deficit in the Round of 16 closer. He will need a similar clutch factor again or lean on his veteran experience like he did in the spring to finish second.
JOSH BERRY: There are more playoff story lines and drivers to watch, but how about another spoiler? Berry came out the gates hot in the spring race, he started second and led 25 laps before finishing 12th with the wild tire fall-off that became a factor late in the race. The second reason Berry is strong at short tracks is crew chief Rodney Childers, a man who knows something about winning around this time of year.
RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE BASS PRO SHOPS NIGHT RACE
Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.
BRISTOL, Tenn. — Dale Earnhardt Jr. opened his Friday noting the evening’s NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Bristol Motor Speedway may be his final foray in a NASCAR national series race.
The course of the 300-lap event threw him about everything imaginable: ongoing radio issues, a helmet change, a swap of wiring harnesses and glasses gone missing. And yet, as he stood on pit road on the frontstretch of Bristol after the checkered flag, nothing in the world could wipe the smile off the face of the 49-year-old Earnhardt.
Despite myriad issues, Earnhardt wheeled the No. 88 JR Motorsports Chevrolet all the way to a seventh-place finish in his first start since Homestead-Miami Speedway in October 2023.
“We had a radio harness or something went out under the pace laps and didn’t have a radio for about 50 laps,” Earnhardt explained. “Swapped out the earplugs, still didn’t work. Swapped out the helmet, still didn’t work. So probably ran about 120 laps without really much communication with TJ. And finally, they stuck a radio with a short harness in it and a button I could clip to my chest, and I could hear them and talk back under caution, but it worked out, and we didn’t lose any lap or anything.
“So just as frustrating as that is, it was important not to give up and lose a lap or anything and try to salvage what we could because we had a top-10, top-five car. And I’m glad we were able to get a good result with those issues.”
Named the sport’s most popular driver for 15 consecutive years during his successful Cup career, Earnhardt was welcomed back by not just the fans but the drivers racing against him, too. Dale Jr. wasn’t even halfway out of his car when Shane van Gisbergen swung by to greet him and share a handshake and laugh. Ryan Truex wandered over to do the same after a spirited on-track battle.
Brittney Wilbur | NASCAR Digital Media
For much of the final 93-lap run to the checkered flag, Earnhardt was in the midst of a four-car battle for the fifth position, hounding Truex’s No. 20 Toyota while trying to fend off his own JRM teammates Brandon Jones and Sam Mayer. And every time Earnhardt seemed to have a run on the No. 20 car, Truex, the younger brother of Cup champion Martin Truex Jr., inched forward and negated Earnhardt’s advances.
“I needed him to slow down a little bit,” Earnhardt said with a wry smile. “I don’t know. He was loose, and I was tight, and I almost could get to his right rear in Turn 4, but I was worried about jumping the cushion, hitting the fence. But I was getting tight. We dropped the track bar and didn’t really need to on that last run. Fun racing him. I was trying to pass him because I knew Martin was watching, and I was like, ‘I bet Martin’s pulling for him.’ So I wanted to beat him so I could rub it into (Martin) Truex. We’re going hunting in a couple weeks.”
Truex, laughingly, was having none of it and upon reaching Earnhardt after the race, told him straight up: “I wasn’t just gonna give it to you.”
“He made me work for it, and I made him work for it,” Truex said. “I knew when he was behind me, he was probably just like, ‘Damn it, this 20 car will not get out of my way,’ and I was thinking to myself, ‘I’m not just going to give it to you. I know everybody loves you, and I love you, too,’ but it was fun to race him hard, and obviously, he races with respect.”
That Earnhardt was contending for a top-five finish regardless of all his issues Friday night in part emphasized why the 26-time Cup winner, 24-time Xfinity winner and two-time Xfinity Series champion was inducted into the NASCAR Hall of Fame in 2021.
“It’s so freaking hard to do this part-time,” Truex said. “So for him to come here — and he hasn’t raced all year. At least I race a couple times here. He races once a year. He races Late Models and stuff, but it shows the caliber of driver he is when he can jump off the couch and battle for a top five right away. So that was fun.”
Early Friday afternoon, Earnhardt intimated that this could be the last race he runs in the Xfinity Series. After making at least one series start per season since 2001, he has no plans to compete in 2025, with no sponsor obligations to pilot a car and incoming broadcast duties as he joins both Prime Video and TNT Sports for its debut NASCAR coverage. If Friday truly marks the end of Earnhardt’s NASCAR racing career, he walks away satisfied with his performance.
“I mean, if I don’t ever run again, I’m happy at 50 years old to jump in once and run top 10,” Earnhardt said. “I know there was some guys named (Harry) Gant and (Bobby) Allison that were winning races in their 50s. So I know it’s damn doable. It’s not anything too crazy. But not doing it every week, man, you certainly come in here feeling like you’re handicapped, and you’ve gotta drink from the fire hose trying to figure out what’s going on and getting up to speed.”
But he left the door open for more fun down the road — and Dale Jr., set to turn 50 years old on Oct. 10, made sure to relish his experience Friday through the chaos.
“I loved every lap. It was great,” Earnhardt said. “I mean, I got everything I wanted out of this, and I’ll miss it next year. I’m certain I’ll probably sign up for somewhere else. Trying not to already start thinking about, where would I run? Where do I want to run? But I definitely do want to take next year off, focus on my broadcasting and get my boots on and get back to work there, make sure I’m doing a good job for that. That’s my priority, that and my family.”
Editor’s note: The NASCAR Cup Series Round of 16 ends Saturday at Bristol Motor Speedway. Watch at 7:30 p.m. ET on USA Network or NBC Sports App, and listen on PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio. | Details on Saturday’s race
Forgive Martin Truex Jr. if he came off as NASCAR’s grumpiest old man after getting body-slammed and brake-checked to the brink of playoff oblivion in his final season.
“I don’t really understand how guys can call themselves the best in the world when they just drive through everyone on restarts at the end of these races,” Truex said after a 20th-place finish at Watkins Glen International dropped him to 14 points below the elimination line. “It’s very frustrating. Just it is what it is these days. I’m out of here. This racing is just ridiculous.”
That loosely translates to, “You kids get off of my road course!”
But the exasperation is understandable from Truex, who literally is the elder statesman of the Cup circuit at 44 years old.
Against a new generation that he has labeled as “hard-nosed,” Truex truly might be remembered as the last of a breed from an era before double-file restarts and overtime dive-bombs. The term “gentlemen’s agreement” still was in heavy rotation of NASCAR vernacular when Truex made his national series debut in 2001.
Before the playoffs started, the 2017 Cup Series champion was in an unusually introspective and reflective mood during a media day interview. When asked about his legacy, he listed being remembered as “fast, smart, clean and very fair.”
Now he must feel as if those same values might cost him a last shot at an elusive second title for the three-time series runner-up.
As the younger set often has been rewarded for playing rough in 2024, this season has been a slow-motion slide toward elimination for Truex. He has gone 16 consecutive races without a top five (worst among playoff drivers) and has averaged only 15.5 points over the past 10 races – the worst 10-race stretch in his career.
And next up is Bristol Motor Speedway, the outlier in his short-track magic.
A multiple-time winner at Richmond Raceway and Martinsville Speedway, Bristol curiously has been right alongside Daytona International Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway as the winless bane of Truex’s existence. Among tracks with at least 30 Cup starts, those are his three worst for average finish — all outside the top 20.
But Truex also is coming off a Bristol runner-up six months ago, and if tire management matters as much again Saturday night, the stage could be set for a breakthrough.
Imagine the ultimate heel turn of Truex knocking a rising Gen Z from the lead on an overtime restart, reaching the Round of 12 with his first victory at Bristol.
A story line for the ages indeed.
Logan Whitton | Getty Images
Here are other fast takes heading into Saturday night’s first-round cutoff race at Bristol Motor Speedway (watch at 7 p.m. ET on USA Network or NBC Sports App, and listen on PRN Radio and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.):
Payback in pennies
With all the late-race chaos, it was easy to overlook that a contentious feud might have been reignited during the first yellow at The Glen.
But Corey LaJoie was well aware after starting the Lap 1 wreck that collected Kyle Busch. On his “Stacking Pennies” podcast this week, LaJoie said he was waiting for payback from Busch, who vowed retribution against LaJoie (whom he called a liar) two months ago after their wreck at Pocono Raceway.
Bristol might be the best chance for Busch to settle the score. With LaJoie headed to a new team (Rick Ware Racing) starting next week, it’s logical for Busch to contain his retribution to this race, and Bristol is also the last short track until the Round of 8 finale at Martinsville Speedway (when title implications will be sky high for setting the championship four). The 0.533-mile oval already is the site of several hit-and-runs for Busch (who has a career-best eight wins there), so keep an eye for when the Nos. 7 and 8 Chevrolets are around each other Saturday.
The feel-good story
Inside a building where the talk had been all about when everything will go dark, Chase Briscoe says, “It literally feels like the lights are brighter” in the halls of Stewart-Haas Racing. That started with Briscoe’s miracle win in the Southern 500 that delivered a final playoff entry at SHR, which will close after the season. It continued after Briscoe overcame a 38th in the playoff opener at Atlanta with a sixth at Watkins Glen to jump six points above the cutline.
“The shop’s been just super energetic,” Briscoe said. “Just us winning was a huge change in our whole demeanor as a race team. If we don’t win the Darlington race, guys were literally counting down the days to the end of the season. Now it just feels a lot like when Kevin (Harvick) was winning nine, 10 races a year. Just the entire atmosphere and the energy and the air is totally different than prior to Darlington. These last two weeks have been really, really fun at Stewart-Haas. It honestly feels just like the heyday.”
Can the team’s surprising momentum continue at Bristol, where Briscoe has no top 10s in Cup but said the track is among SHR’s five best? If it does, it could result in the awkward scenario of Briscoe advancing possibly at the expense of Truex, the driver he will replace at Joe Gibbs Racing next year.
“The stories kind of write themselves at this point,” Briscoe said.
Ethan Smith | NASCAR Digital Media
Proceed with caution
There were no signs of massive falloff in practice lap times before the previous race at Bristol, so teams probably won’t know until after the green flag Saturday whether tire wear will be a significant factor.
Christopher Bell, though, is hoping for pre-race clarity on what will constitute a caution. He’d like NASCAR to hold the yellow flag for any tire problem, provided that the car avoids the wall. Though several drivers’ tires expired roughly 30 to 40 laps into a run, the caution flew only twice in the final two stages on March 17.
Bell believes that’s the right approach for two reasons: It puts an emphasis on driver skill with an incentive for saving tires, and it could allow for some unusually creative tactics. How about watching a furious strategy unfold in which the winner makes an extra pit stop and essentially passes the field twice to win the race?
“That really changes your mindset driving the car and the strategy that the crew chief is trying to play, and it really opens up the playbook,” Bell said. “Stage three in the spring ended up being an amazing show just for the fact that NASCAR let the drivers and the teams self-police itself.”
After starting the year with no wins in the first 12 races, Ford has won the past four races in what has become a patented late-season surge for the manufacturer, particularly Team Penske.
During the first two seasons of the Next Gen, champions Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney both peaked at the perfect time in the playoffs.
But there is a danger of history repeating. Blaney enters Bristol as the third-ranked Penske driver and is likely very mindful that Logano was eliminated as the series’ defending champion by a first-round crash at the track last year.
It all comes around
Because Bristol is “his house,” Denny Hamlin has exuded confidence about erasing a 6-point gap to remain in the playoffs. But if the Greatest Driver Never To Have Won a Championship comes up short yet again in a first-round elimination, he might be lamenting a win at Bristol as being the deciding factor.
It was the engine in his No. 11 Toyota that won March 17 at Bristol … and then was declared illegal in late August because of mistakes in postrace procedures that left it unavailable for inspection. That cost Hamlin 10 playoff points and a 75-point deduction from his regular-season total (which further eroded his playoff cushion).
Of all the ways in which Hamlin has lost titles (a faulty master switch, an oversized piece of tape, a malfunctioning roof hatch), it looms as being remembered as the most bizarre.
Nate Ryan has written about NASCAR since 1996 while working at the San Bernardino Sun, Richmond Times-Dispatch, USA TODAY and for the past 10 years at NBC Sports Digital. He is the host of the NASCAR on NBC Podcast and also has covered various other motorsports, including the IndyCar and IMSA series.
BRISTOL, Tenn. — Cole Custer recovered from an early brush with the outside wall to win Friday’s Food City 300 at Bristol Motor Speedway, the race that set the field for the NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoffs.
Custer’s second victory of the season, combined with a litany of trouble that befell Justin Allgaier, gave the driver of the No. 00 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford an unlikely come-from-behind victory in the battle for the regular-season title and an accompanying 15 playoff-point bonus.
Custer, who led a race-high 104 laps, took the top spot for good with a pass of Sheldon Creed on Lap 209 of 300. In winning for the first time at Bristol and the 15th time in his career, Custer crossed the finish line 0.896-seconds ahead of Creed, who now has 13 runner-up finishes to his credit without an Xfinity win.
“This is huge, because our confidence was going down there the last month,” said Custer, the reigning series champion who will begin his title defense Sept. 28 at Kansas Speedway (4 p.m. ET, The CW, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). “To get this win really means a lot…
“It’s unbelievable. These guys never give up. It’s been a tough month, but to be able to lead into the playoffs like this, we’re going to really bring it to them.”
The race also secured playoff spots for the final two drivers on the postseason grid. Sammy Smith and Parker Kligerman finished 15th and 16th, respectively, to earn their playoff berths.
Chandler Smith ran third and Jesse Love fourth on Friday, both having already secured playoff spots. Ryan Truex was fifth, followed by Brandon Jones, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Ryan Sieg (who missed the final playoff spot by 36 points), playoff-bound Sam Mayer and AJ Allmendinger rounded out the top 10.
The battle for the regular-season championship took more twists and turns than a game of Dungeons and Dragons. Custer hit the outside wall on Lap 2 and cut a tire, temporarily jeopardizing his second-place position in the standings.
But Justin Allgaier, the driver Custer was chasing for the regular-season title, had his own share of ill fortune on Lap 52. Having led every lap to that point, Allgaier was cruising toward what would have been his 15th stage win of the season when the Chevrolet of Austin Green bounced off the outside wall into Allgaier’s path.
Contact between the Camaros sheared the rear bumper cover off Allgaier’s No. 7 Chevy. After a pit stop to repair the car’s right-rear quarter panel, Allgaier continued. Allgaier pitted on Lap 60 and stayed on the track during the stage break after Lap 85, putting him fifth for a restart on Lap 96.
He was second for a restart on Lap 127 but his sojourn in the top five didn’t last. On Lap 153, contact between Creed’s Toyota and Allgaier’s Chevy sent the No. 7 down the track nose-first into the inside wall.
During repairs, Allgaier’s car dragged a saw out of the pits, incurring a penalty. From that point on, the JR Motorsports driver ran roughly three seconds off the pace, rapidly losing laps and positions.
When Custer took the race lead from Creed on Lap 209, he had the regular-season lead, having erased the 43-point advantage Allgaier carried into the race. With his victory, Custer secured the regular-season crown by three points over Allgaier, who nevertheless will enter the postseason as the top seed with 34 playoff points to Custer’s 28.
“I don’t really have any words for tonight,” said Allgaier, who finished 30th, 10 laps down. “It started with getting the damage from the wreck in front of us. There was nothing we could do. And then, just racing, trying to get as many stage points as we could, and I think the 18 (Creed) came off the wall a little bit.
“I’m really bummed about tonight. We’ll go back and talk about it … We had the best car tonight. It was very obvious from the beginning of the race that it was the best car, and nothing to show for it.”
NOTE: Post-race inspection was completed without issue in the Xfinity Series garage, confirming Cole Custer as the winner.
Drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs swept the top five in an extended 45-minute practice session at Bristol Motor Speedway, with Ty Gibbs topping the chart at 124.719 mph in the No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. The whole field took advantage of the extra track time, with 13 of the 37 entrants posting 100 or more laps in the session.
Hendrick Motorsports made it a 1-2-3 sweep in Busch Pole Qualifying, with Alex Bowman, Kyle Larson and William Byron securing the top three starting spots. The pole was Bowman’s first of the season, fifth of his Cup Series career and his first on the 0.533-mile Bristol track. Playoff drivers sealed eight of the top 10 slots on the grid, but five of the 16 postseason-eligible pros were outside the top 20 — Ryan Blaney (22nd), Brad Keselowski (23rd), Austin Cindric (27th), Harrison Burton (34th) and Daniel Suárez (35th). | Full Friday recap
Big story line
Where the rubber meets the road … to the Round of 12
The last time the Cup Series visited Bristol’s concrete-covered high banks in March, tire management emerged as a surprise strategy element. Added attention to tire wear and dramatic fall-off produced a series of curveballs, a track-record 54 lead changes, and ultimately a familiar winner in Denny Hamlin.
Goodyear officials are bringing back the same tire setup for this weekend’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race, and the prospects for a rubber-match repeat add an intriguing spin to the Round of 16 elimination event. Four drivers will be knocked from championship eligibility after Saturday’s 500-lapper, and the remaining dozen will advance to the postseason’s next phase.
A handful of outside factors may sway the tire performance metrics at Bristol between March and September, but Goodyear reps believe they’ve zeroed in on some of the recipe’s prime ingredients. The same tire configuration was also used here last fall but did not have such a pronounced amount of wear. The key difference: The track was prepared with a resin in March as opposed to the PJ1 traction compound that was applied last September, and Goodyear held a tire test with six teams at Bristol on July 16-17 to get a better grasp on the reasons for higher wear.
After a longer Friday practice session with the same tire configuration and the same track prep, the prospects for a Saturday night re-run are … well, mixed.
“I have no idea,” said Brad Keselowski, who finished third here in March. “We’ll see if Jekyll or Hyde shows up.”
“I mean, it’s so hard to predict,” Keselowski added. “We’re all over the place. We came and tested here in March, saw super-high tire wear, didn’t believe it. Went and ran the race and wore the tires right out. Then we came back here in August with the 17 car. Tires couldn’t go 20 laps again. Thought, oh, that’s what we’re gonna have when we come back. And now we’re showing no tire wear, so we have no idea what to expect.”
Teams and drivers alike came to the Tennessee mountains bracing for significant wear, but Friday’s preliminaries didn’t bear out out those predictions. After a Saturday morning discussion that gathered feedback from Goodyear reps, drivers and track management, NASCAR competition officials cleaned the top groove of excess rubber and applied PJ1 two feet off the bottom of the racing surface in the afternoon hours before the race.
Ethan Smith | NASCAR Digital Media
“Spring seems to be an asterisk,” said Ross Chastain, who qualified 12th. “I haven’t seen anything or felt anything that felt like the spring so far. As we ran through that first run, and we all got to Lap 20, 30, I’m like waiting on it to slip, or waiting on them to say caution, someone blew a tire. But we ran over 50, almost 60 laps. Old Bristol.”
How those tires will react in the Saturday nighttime hours versus the Friday late-afternoon sunshine, plus after a 300-lap Xfinity Series race’s rubbering-in, is still a toss-up.
“It’s so hard to tell,” Cliff Daniels, crew chief for Hendrick Motorsports’ No. 5 Chevrolet and second-starting Kyle Larson, told NASCAR.com. “I mean, I think the track conditions (Friday) were much more normal. There’s a lot more heat in the track, and the more heat you get into the track, really, the better it is for the tire, to get the tire to come in. So I think a lot of that’s what we saw today, which is great. It’s great to see not a lot of marbles, and come practice, the tires stayed together really well. Our stuff looked really good after practice. We ran a lot of hard laps up top, and the top had speed, which was good. To be honest, from our end, we’re really hoping for kind of an old-fashioned Bristol night race type feel, where you’ve got all the lanes and can move around a lot.
“The X factor for tomorrow night that’s a little different than today, is just going to be the track temp coming down a bit for the nighttime. But I still think there’s going to be enough rubber on track from today, from the Xfinity race tonight, that hopefully it’s a really racy track, and we don’t have all the chaos — which, even if the tire was coming apart, I don’t know that we would have all the chaos again because we all know what to expect, right? You know, the X factor back then was the element of surprise that you just don’t have. Now, if it were to start coming apart, I think we all know how to react pretty quick. So, yeah, we’re just hopeful for a really good, old-fashioned Bristol night race.”
Watching the Goodyear rubber will be one factor, but many eyeballs will also be on the running tally of the playoff picture. There’s separation for the top 10 drivers, but the last two drivers provisionally set to advance — Chase Briscoe and Ty Gibbs — are just six points above the elimination line. Denny Hamlin, a three-time winner this year, sits six points below, with Keselowski (minus-12), Martin Truex Jr. (minus-14) and Harrison Burton (minus-20) in order behind him and on the brink of seeing their playoff eligibility fade.
History tells us…
Qualifying quickness makes a difference. It’s not an absolute, but solid starting spots have often been an indicator of success at Bristol. In six of the last seven races, the winning driver has come from the top five on the starting grid. The pole winner has been the race winner 27 times at Bristol. Conversely, only twice has a driver won from 30th or worse — Dale Earnhardt Jr. from 30th in 2004 and Elliott Sadler from 38th in 2001.
History also hints that season sweeps at Bristol aren’t a major rarity. It’s happened 15 times since the track opened for business in 1961, and three drivers have done it more than once — Cale Yarborough (1974, ’76-’77), Darrell Waltrip (1981-83) and Dale Earnhardt (1985, ’87). If Denny Hamlin seals this season’s sweep of Bristol, he’ll be the first to achieve that feat since former teammate Kyle Busch in 2009.
He may not be the betting favorite to win, but watch out for…
KYLE BUSCH. Rowdy hasn’t had the same level of success during the Next Gen era as with previous generations of Cup Series race cars, but it’s still surprising to find an eight-time Bristol winner down the board as a 17-1 shot. Factor in a combined 14 more victories in other NASCAR national series, and it’s evident that Busch has a history of concrete results.
Busch’s frustrations this season have been well-documented, but recent weeks have shown signs of a turnaround. The No. 8 Chevrolet driver was 30th last week after a rough run at Watkins Glen but had registered a stretch of four consecutive top-10 finishes before last weekend — positives that could bode well for playing a Saturday night playoff spoiler, even when starting 29th on the grid. | Bristol odds
Speed reads
Our biggest pieces of the week — get covered for race day from all angles.
• Inside Hamlin’s hopes: Simulations reveal razor’s edge for No. 11 | Read article
• Analysis: It’s time for Martin Truex to have get-off-my-lawn moment | Read article
• Dale Jr.’s determination: Earnhardt stops short of retirement, won’t run in ’25 | Read article • Trade talk: Spire, Rick Ware Racing swap LaJoie, Haley for rest of 2024 | Read article
• On the move: Harrison Burton to team with AM Racing in Xfinity next year | Read article
• Cindric’s strength: Team Penske driver off to solid playoff start | Read article
• Back for more: Bubba Wallace signs multiyear extension with 23XI | Read article
• Bubble Watch: Turmoil swirls for title contenders at Bristol | Photo gallery • Power Rankings: Few are safe in recent roll of playoff chaos | Photo gallery • Turning Point: Hamlin’s trifecta try and a roundup of potential playoff spoilers | Read article • Racing Insights: Full finishing order projections for Saturday’s Round of 16 finale | Read article • 36 for 36: Check out this week’s survivor pool picks | Read article
• Fantasy Fastlane: Hamlin, Keselowski in need of rebounds | Photo gallery
• Fantasy Update: Hendrick aces show some muscle in qualifying | Read article
• Memorable moments: Relive history from the Last Great Colosseum | Photo gallery • Walk-off winners: Playoff performances that converted in the clutch | Photo gallery
• NASCAR Classics: Rewind with Bristol full-race replays from the vault | Read article
• Paint Scheme Preview: Fresh designs for under the lights at Bristol | Pick your favorite
Fast facts ⏩
Race-relevant statistics, brought to you by the experts at Racing Insights.
• The four drivers currently below the elimination line — Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr. and Harrison Burton — collectively have 125 Cup Series wins. The 12 drivers above the divider have 135. • The top three in the Cup Series’ most recent Bristol race in March: Hamlin, Truex, Keselowski — all below the elimination threshold here in September.
• Ford has won the last four Cup Series races with four different drivers: Chris Buescher (Watkins Glen), Joey Logano (Atlanta), Chase Briscoe (Darlington) and Harrison Burton (Daytona).
See where your favorite NASCAR Cup Series driver will pit for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on Saturday (7 p.m. ET, USA, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).
The expected tire wear that was on full display in a wild spring race at Bristol Motor Speedway didn’t occur in practice on Friday. That doesn’t mean tire wear should be forgotten about as lap times still fell off, just not as drastic as in March. Hendrick Motorsports beamed in qualifying, claiming the top three spots overall. Joe Gibbs Racing had a solid day at the office, with three of its four drivers making the final round of qualifying. Spire Motorsports even got a pair of its entries into the top 10.
NEXT IN LINE: Alex Bowman, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe
RISING: The Round of 16 has gone as planned for Bowman and the No. 48 team. His 79 points scored is tied with Austin Cindric for the most in the round of all playoff drivers. Bowman won’t have traffic out his windshield when he takes the green flag on Saturday, scoring his first pole award since last year’s Daytona 500 (he started first last spring at Richmond by the metric). It’s his first pole award on a non-superspeedway since the penultimate race of the 2016 season, filling in for Dale Earnhardt Jr. The No. 48 Chevrolet cracked the top 10 in practice on single-lap speed but was middle-of-the-road over the long run.
Scoring a monster points day compared to the rest of the playoff field at Watkins Glen, Chase Briscoe experienced a 27-point swing to the elimination line, one of the bigger swings in recent memory. His biggest hurdle in hanging on to one of the final spots, he thought, would be qualifying. The No. 14 team delivered on Friday, as Briscoe will start fifth. We’ve seen this story in past Bristol races (Briscoe has yet to score a top 10 after two top-10 starting spots in four starts), so I’m not moving the No. 14 car into my lineup.
FALLING: With subpar performances to open the Round of 16 at Atlanta and Watkins Glen, Brad Keselowski’s bid for a second Cup championship could come to a screeching halt this weekend. Keselowski, a three-time Bristol winner, lacked speed in qualifying and will take the green flag on Saturday night from 23rd position. It’s not over for Keselowski, though, as his RFK Racing teammate Chris Buescher won the Bristol night race in 2022 after starting 20th – and 500 laps is a long time at the half-mile bullring. However, it might be a stretch to score quality stage points.
After Daniel Suarez reflected on his recent track record at Bristol last weekend, he joked that he wanted a 75-point cushion over the elimination line entering Bristol. Instead, he is 36 points to the good, and while that is comfortable, the No. 99 team might be stressing about its speed – or lack thereof. Suarez was listed as someone to stay away from in Fastlane earlier this week, but it’s even worse than anticipated. Suarez was 35th on 10-lap averages in practice and matched that in qualifying.
FEATURED MATCHUPS:
Denny Hamlin vs. Kyle Larson: This highly competitive matchup is about as tough to decide now as it was projected earlier this week. Larson appeared to have a tick more speed, leading the way on 25- and 30-lap averages. Hamlin had solid pace, but not as lights out as Larson, who might have the best car in the field entering Saturday evening.
Brad Keselowski vs. Martin Truex Jr.: At some point, Truex’s racing luck has to flip, right? The only problem is, historically, Bristol is among his worst tracks on the schedule. Meanwhile, it was the No. 19 Toyota that was superior to Keselowski in qualifying. Truex did fall off heavier on the long run and, because this is a heads-up matchup, I’ll keep Keselowski. RFK Racing has been stellar at Bristol, so all hope shouldn’t be lost on the No. 6 car this weekend.
Chase Briscoe vs. Ty Gibbs: In one of Briscoe’s most impressive qualifying efforts of the year, this matchup got more challenging to decide. Gibbs nearly wiped out in qualifying and still managed to barely miss the cut and will line up 13th. I’ll stay with the No. 54 car, which has led more than 100 laps in the last two Bristol events.
Chase Elliott vs. Ryan Blaney: On first glance, I almost placed Blaney into the “falling” category. It was a mediocre day for Team Penske, with all three of its entries starting 20th or worse. But the No. 12 car showed great speed during longer runs, leading the way on 10-, 15- and 20-lap averages in practice. But history leans in the favor of Elliott. He was the lowest of the HMS drivers in qualifying, but still had a respectable showing in 10th.
