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The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season concludes on Sunday at Phoenix Raceway (3 p.m. ET on NBC/NBC Sports App/Peacock, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), with four drivers still eligible for the championship: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott and Martin Truex Jr.

This means that whichever of those four drivers has the best finish in Sunday’s race will be the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series champion.

For the record, the eventual champion doesn’t necessarily have to win the race to win the title.

The only determining factor is which of those four secures the best finish, no matter where that is in the final race results.

Let’s take a look at the array of NASCAR championship odds, including my favorite bet to win the 2021 title.

RELATED: Title odds from BetMGM | Odds for Sunday’s title race | NASCAR BetCenter

NASCAR Championship Betting Pick

Clearly, all four of these drivers are capable of winning the championship — that’s why they’ve advanced this far.

But from a NASCAR betting perspective we’re most concerned about the associated odds with each.

Interestingly, NASCAR championship odds vary wildly from sportsbook to sportsbook, which is actually a big advantage for bettors.

For example, Kyle Larson is currently +140 at BetMGM but +175 at PointsBet.

I’m going in a different direction by taking the biggest championship longshot in Truex.

At Phoenix back in March, Truex won the race while running the most fast laps and posting the third-best driver rating.

In addition, the short, flat tracks (like Phoenix) have also been Truex’s best this season. In six total races across Phoenix, Richmond, New Hampshire and Martinsville, the No. 19 team has the most wins (three), the most top-five finishes (five) and the second-best driver rating.

With a very enticing +450 (BetMGM) price tag, Truex’s speed at this category of tracks this season makes him my favorite value bet to win the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series championship.

The Bet: Truex Jr. (+450) to win championship

Editor’s note: This is the first in a series of four stories examining why each driver could win the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series championship.

Tuesday: Kyle Larson
Wednesday: Chase Elliott
Thursday: Martin Truex Jr.
Friday: Denny Hamlin

•••

Kyle Larson will win the 2021 championship because …

He’s Kyle Larson in 2021.

Larson’s first year in the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet has been one for the record books. His nine victories this season are more than double the totals of each of the three other Championship 4 drivers of Chase Elliott (two), Denny Hamlin (two) and Martin Truex Jr. (four). He’s finished in the top 10 in 25 of the 35 races. His 2,474 laps led is now the most in a single season since NASCAR moved to a 36-race schedule in 2001, surpassing Jeff Gordon’s previous mark of 2,320 during his 2001 championship season.

The regular-season champion has won four races in the playoffs, including three of the last four starting with the Charlotte Roval. If you need any more convincing as to why Larson is the lead candidate for title glory, he’s also the odds-on favorite in the BetMGM sportsbook at 7-5.

RELATED: Betting odds for Phoenix title race

But even with all of the success backing Larson, you can throw those statistics out the window now. It all comes down to one race, one pressure-packed moment to decide who will lift up the Bill France Cup after Sunday’s season finale at Phoenix (3 p.m. ET, NBC/NBC Sports App/Peacock, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Pressure is a concept that Larson and company, led by crew chief Cliff Daniels, have proven they can handle, though. The biggest example of that occurred four weeks ago when an alternator issue at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval nearly threw a whole season’s worth of work away. But a calm-and-cool Daniels didn’t let it shake them, methodically giving his team marching orders when a lesser leader could have panicked.

And the end result? Another No. 5 car parked in Victory Lane.

Whatever this Sunday will throw at Larson and Daniels, those two can handle it. But it should not surprise anybody at this point if Larson is out front for the duration. His five straight top-10 finishes at the 1-mile oval back it up even further.

This is why Larson will win the race and the championship on Sunday. He’ll hoist season-ending hardware for the first time in his career in his first Championship 4 appearance and earn Hendrick Motorsports its 14th Cup Series title.

RELATED: Kyle Larson through the years

Every now and then, the Internet gets one right.

Back in February—which feels like ages ago—we asked you to call your shot and predict the Championship 4. Hundreds of you sent in your guesses.

But did anyone correctly predict all four championship finalists?

So much happened in a single season, and so much changed from 2020. Kevin Harvick went from winning nine races last year to laying an egg in the wins column in 2021. Kyle Larson joined Hendrick Motorsports and won pretty much everything. Three drivers won their first races, and even part-timer AJ Allmendinger snagged a victory. 

All that to say, 2021 was a tough year to predict. 

Even the only person who predicted last year’s Championship 4 stumbled this time around.

One out of four—not so great! 

The 2021 Hall of Shame

Plenty of Twitter titans sent in their guesses, only to fail to make one single correct prediction. It’s tough out there. 

Sorry to do this, but, in the spirit of tradition, we’ve got no choice but to make fun of those lousy 0-for-4 picks. You know what you signed up for. 

https://twitter.com/Dcarterace21/status/1359695563151802368

Even NASCAR.com’s own power ranker Pat DeCola whiffed.

Better luck next year. 

One person picked correctly

If you shoot enough arrows at a target, one’s bound to hit the bullseye. 

Out of the hundreds and hundreds of failed predictions, we’ve found only one containing this year’s Championship 4 lineup of Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr.

Well done, @RadiKyleOpinion. Back on Feb. 10, you peered 263 days into the future. 

Somehow, you knew that Chase Elliott would compete to defend his 2020 title. That Denny Hamlin would give it another go. That fellow Kyle, Kyle Larson, would have an outstanding season. That Martin Truex Jr. would fight to become Martin 2x, Jr.

We’re thoroughly impressed by your skills. Or your wild, uninformed guesses; we don’t know. 

For reference, one person picked perfectly in 2020, two got ‘em right in 2019, and nobody predicted the 2018 Championship 4. You’re in elite company, @RadiKyleOpinion. 

Although, technically speaking, this one’s not wrong.

Thanks to all this year’s participants who put their pride on the line. Let’s do it again in 2022.

NASCAR officials will require Kyle Busch to take sensitivity training before the start of the 2022 season following offensive comments made after Sunday’s Cup Series race at Martinsville Speedway.

The two-time series champion used a term that disparages those with intellectual disabilities when describing an on-track incident with Brad Keselowski. Both drivers were eliminated from title contention ahead of the Phoenix Raceway finale.

After the race, Busch apologized for the remarks on Twitter.

Two teams evenly split the Championship 4 — Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing, two drivers apiece — but their 2021 season stats aren’t so even.

Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott represent Hendrick Motorsports, while Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. hail from Joe Gibbs Racing. Larson (nine) and Elliott (two) alone combine for 11 of the 35 race wins this season. Hamlin (two) and Truex (four) are responsible for six together — almost half the amount.

“Usually, a lot of times, JGR might be the favorite going into a championship race,” said Wally Brown, Joe Gibbs Racing’s competition director. “I think we’re definitely the underdogs. We have to beat the guy, Kyle Larson, that has won so many races, been so dominant this year. Then you have Chase, the reigning champion at this track. We’re definitely the underdog.”

RELATED: Championship 4 set for Phoenix | Hamlin blasts winner Bowman at Martinsville

According to the latest odds from BetMGM, Larson (7-5) is the favorite to win the championship after Sunday’s finale at Phoenix Raceway (3 p.m. ET on NBC/NBC Sports App, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Elliott (11-4) posts the next-best odds, with Hamlin (4-1) and Truex (9-2) following.

“As far as us going in with the advantage, personally I don’t see it that way,” said Jeff Andrews, Hendrick Motorsports’ general manager and executive vice president. “There may be statistically you could make that argument. From ourselves and how we’re approaching it, we’re going out there to race with Joe Gibbs Racing, one of the best teams in the history of this sport.”

Joe Gibbs Racing owns five NASCAR Cup Series championships. Hendrick Motorsports boasts 13.

Hamlin leads the title-eligible crop with two career wins (spring 2012 and fall 2019) at the 1-mile track in Arizona. Truex and Elliott have one victory each, both coming in the two most recent events held there. Truex won the spring race earlier this season; Elliott won last year’s season finale. Larson, meanwhile, has not won in the desert.

Overall this season, the four drivers lead the series in laps led. Larson (2,474), though, has nearly a 1,000-lap advantage over Hamlin (1,502). Elliott (858) doesn’t break into the thousands and has the third-best mark. Truex (793) rounds the group out.

“We just don’t have the raw speed they’ve had this year, to be honest,” Brown said. “We’re trying to figure that out. They’ve just beaten us, just faster everywhere. I think for us, we’re going to have to be able to do our best job, run a very clean race, have good pit stops, execute well. Hopefully we can run with them.”

As the 2021 calendar year turns to November, the picture of the 2022 NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour schedule is becoming clearer as NASCAR today announced dates at Langley Speedway and Riverhead Raceway.

The series will return to historic Langley Speedway in Virginia for the first time since 2018, and for only the third race in series history, on April 23. The spring date will be the third race on the calendar, after the already-announced season-opening events at New Smyrna Speedway (Florida) on February 12 and Richmond Raceway on April 1.

RELATED: More Modified Tour coverage

The previous two Whelen Modified Tour events at Langley were won by Timmy Solomito (2017) and current NASCAR Cup Series driver Ryan Preece (2018).

The .397-mile track also hosted eight NASCAR Whelen Southern Modified Tour races from 2010-2015.

“It’s great to be returning to Langley Speedway,” said Jimmy Wilson, Senior Director, NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour. “Virginia has a rich history in modified racing, and it means a lot that we get to put on a show for the fans of both Richmond and Langley next spring.”

The Whelen Modified Tour will also return to the storied fifth-mile Riverhead Raceway in New York, where the series has raced every year since 1985, with the exception of the COVID-impacted 2020 season.

There will be three Riverhead dates on the 2022 schedule – May 14, June 25 and September 17.

“Riverhead Raceway and the Whelen Modified Tour have been tied together for nearly four decades,” added Wilson. “It means a lot to our drivers and teams who are based in the Northeast that we can race at this celebrated track in their backyard.”

That final date will mark the 70th NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour event at Riverhead Raceway. Earlier this year, Doug Coby won the first two races at the track while Patrick Emerling won the penultimate race of the season.

Mike Ewanitsko has the all-time wins record at Riverhead with 11 victories, his last coming in 2000. Reigning NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour champion Justin Bonsignore is next on the all-time list with eight wins.

NASCAR Hall of Fame inductee Mike Stefanik had six wins at the track, while Donny Lia and Preece have four apiece and Ted Christopher had three, as did Timmy Solomito.

The remainder of the 2022 schedule will follow at a later date, as will race times and broadcast information for all races.

MARTINSVILLE, Va. — Speed was in surplus for Chase Elliott on Sunday, and on multiple levels.

Elliott’s fleet-footed No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet led a race-high 289 laps; he clinched a Championship 4 berth early, with nearly half of the Xfinity 500 remaining; and he was exiting the Martinsville Speedway grounds, showing up to support the Atlanta Braves in that evening’s Game 5 of the World Series.

RELATED: Martinsville results | Championship 4 set for Phoenix

Despite a roundabout day that included a late-race spin in the Cup Series Playoffs’ Round of 8 finale, Elliott emerged with the ultimate prize still within reach — a title shot in Sunday’s season-ending event at Phoenix Raceway (3 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN, SiriusXM).

“Certainly hasn’t been pretty,” Elliott said after his 16th-place finish at the 0.526-mile track. “At the end of the day, having a shot next week is really all that matters. Frankly, I feel like you make it to Phoenix, it’s anybody’s game. Getting out there and being a part of the final four is a really big deal. It’s really hard to do. I’m really proud of my team for continuing to push through and battle some adversity. Just keep fighting.

“I’ve got a great group. I don’t want to go to battle with anybody else.”

Elliott will defend his crown in the Arizona desert next weekend, attempting to become the Cup Series’ first back-to-back champion since the postseason’s elimination era began in 2014. He’ll battle fellow Hendrick driver Kyle Larson and Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. for the championship.

Elliott won last year’s title with a sweep of the final two races, plucking victories from Martinsville then Phoenix to seal it. Sunday, he appeared close to checking off the first leg of an encore, winning the first two stages and locking up his second straight Championship 4 reservation on the basis of points.

“That changed the complexion a bit,” said No. 9 crew chief Alan Gustafson. “You just race to win then.”

Elliott indeed was, but his No. 9 Chevy was knocked from victory contention after a bump from Brad Keselowski with 45 laps remaining. Keselowski, aiming to add a high finishing note to his last season with Team Penske, charged into the hunt with a bid to make the title field on points or with a victory. Elliott caught the worst of his Turn 3 over-drive.

MORE: Chase Elliott spins after contact from Keselowski

“I mean, it’s tough. I was racing him hard on the outside. I wasn’t super surprised that he made a mistake,” Elliott said. “As hard as he hit me, I knew he just didn’t clean me out on purpose. I figure he wheel-hopped or something. I haven’t seen it. Really moving on was all that mattered.

“I had made some bad choices on adjustments, kind of got us behind. The real reason that happened was because I made a bad decision on what to do to our car. We started playing defense. When you start playing defense, you typically start crashing a lot of times, especially when guys need to win. I blame myself for leading us down the wrong path more than anything. I didn’t think it was on purpose either, so all good.”

Sunday’s shot at a second Martinsville grandfather clock trophy slipped away, but Elliott’s chance to realize a season-long goal still looms at Phoenix.

“Got as good a shot as anybody, I guess,” Gustafson said.

Meet the NASCAR Fan Council Member of the Month for November 2021!

Name: Christie
Current City: St. George, Utah
Member Since: 2018

GETTING TO KNOW CHRISTIE:

Q.  How did you first become interested in NASCAR? 

“I enjoyed watching NASCAR as a teenager in the 90s; the era of Dale Earnhardt and Jeff Gordon was always so exciting. As an adult, my family has grown, and now my teenage kids love watching races! We really enjoy attending when we can and watching every Sunday.”

Q: What is your favorite part about NASCAR?

“I love the patriotism and pride NASCAR celebrates each week. I love the competition and unpredictability!”

Q: What is your favorite NASCAR memory?

“Attending our first race as a family at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and watching my kids meet their favorite drivers. That was a great day!”

Q: Do you have a favorite in any of the following categories?

Current Driver: “Martin Truex Jr.”

Past Driver: “Jeff Gordon.”

Track: “Bristol Motor Speedway.”

Raceday Traditions: “Church first, then everyone changes into their favorite driver shirts.”

Sponsor: “Auto Owners Insurance because of all the support they give to the Martin Truex Jr Foundation and Sherry Strong.”

Q: What do you like to do in your free time? 

“I enjoy hiking and fishing and when I can’t go outside I enjoy painting and redecorating.”

FROM ALL OF US AT NASCAR, WE THANK CHRISTIE FOR HER CONTINUED SUPPORT AND LOOK FORWARD TO HEARING FROM HER IN 2021!

Look for Christie on the Official NASCAR Fan Council page on NASCAR.COM.

MARTINSVILLE, Va. — Kyle Busch just missed out on a Championship 4 slot Sunday at Martinsville Speedway, coming up three points shy of advancing from the Round of 8 group. The performance wasn’t what he had hoped for, but he still managed a determined second-place result just behind Xfinity 500 race winner Alex Bowman.

So when asked if his elimination was tough to take, his response was fairly frank.

“Oh, we ran like dog—- last week and this week. So we had a Hail Mary opportunity there at the end and we were trying to make something out of nothing,” Busch said. “Great effort. We did everything we could all day long. We never stopped working on it, but we have missed it way too much lately, so I don’t know what’s going to happen.”

RELATED: Championship 4 set | At-track photos: Martinsville

Busch started at a deficit after a pit-road speeding penalty to open the final stage, but his comeback efforts put him in position to not just register a top-five finish, but to race for the Cup Series title in next Sunday’s season finale (3 p.m. ET, NBC/NBC Sports App/Peacock, MRN, SiriusXM) at Phoenix Raceway. He wound up just .472 seconds back of Bowman at the checkered flag and joined Team Penske’s Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano among the eliminated.

But the checkered wasn’t the end of it for Busch, whose No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota ended up turned around in Turn 1 after his hard racing with old foe Keselowski turned full-contact on the final lap.

Again, Busch’s description was blunt.

“Well, he drills my ass coming out of (Turn) 4 for no reason,” Busch said. “Where was he going? What was he going to do — spin me out? He was trying to do a Harvick is what he was trying to do. For what? Second place? To do what? He wasn’t going to transfer through with that. … So stupid. I don’t understand these guys. I should beat the (expletive) out of him right now is what I should do, but that doesn’t do me any good either.”

Asked why not, Busch said:  “I’ve already had to pay enough fines in my lifetime. I’m sure I’ll get another one.”

Keselowski offered his side, saying, “I don’t know what he was thinking. I don’t know if he’s mad at himself, mad at me. I don’t sweat that.”

But Busch suggested that any goodwill built up from their relatively clean contests for position earlier in the race had evaporated within sight of the start-finish line.

“I raced Brad fantastic all day,” Busch said. “I mean, I held him up more than any other driver out there the entire race. I was on the outside, my car was better on the outside today, and he couldn’t make it by me and he ran me relatively clean. Once he got enough alongside of me, he kind of washed out and moved me up a little bit, which is fine — I get it. Then coming to the checkered, just that dumb (expletive). That right there is going to make me race him differently, even though he had all the coins in the bucket the whole day, just emptied it out right there at the end.”

MARTINSVILLE, Va. — Denny Hamlin’s bid to make the Championship 4 field by virtue of a clinching Martinsville Speedway victory instead of math boiled down to a final handful of laps and an untimely nudge from Alex Bowman in Sunday’s Xfinity 500.

Hamlin made the title field for a third consecutive year with a rocky 24th-place finish in the Cup Series Playoffs’ Round of 8 finale, avoiding elimination by eight points. But Bowman’s role as the antagonist with a Lap 493 bump that sent his No. 11 Toyota spinning out of contention drew Hamlin’s ire — both with post-checkered flag contact and sharp words in all subsequent interviews.

RELATED: Official results | At-track photos: Martinsville

“He’s just a hack. Just an absolute hack,” Hamlin said. “He gets his ass kicked by his teammates every week. He’s (expletive) terrible. He’s just terrible. He sees one opportunity, he takes it. Obviously he’s got the fast car of the week and he runs 10th. He didn’t want to race us there. We had a good, clean race. I moved up as high as I could on the race track to give him all the room I could, he still can’t drive.”

Hamlin had rallied from early adversity to take command of the final phase of the race, leading 103 of the final 112 laps. Though he had a points cushion to rely on, Hamlin was in position to advance in style with his sixth Martinsville triumph until Bowman’s late-race pressure crossed the limit.

Hamlin looped around in Turn 3 and he limped home as the next-to-last driver on the lead lap. Bowman rolled on to his fourth win of the season, but his victory celebration on the frontstretch was interrupted by a sideswipe from Hamlin’s No. 11 and later, nose-to-nose contact between the two cars.

Chris Gabehart, Hamlin’s crew chief, told his driver on the cool-down lap, “However you want to handle that,” before his post-race confrontation, but then tried to calm the waters before it escalated with repeated reminders: “Be smart,” he said, “Big picture.”

Bowman said he had been a fan of reality shows that have captured the rambunctious antics at Bowman Gray Stadium, but only as a spectator. He said Sunday’s cool-down lap felt like being at the Madhouse.

“It was really entertaining then. Not so entertaining when you’re living it,” Bowman said. “Just didn’t want to be a part of that, make us both look dumb. So I just tried to not be a part of it. I wasn’t going to try to do stuff like that. That’s not who I am. Yeah, I understand why he’s mad. I’d be mad, too. I drove off into the corner, got loose, spun him out.

“At the same time, I didn’t do it on purpose. If I did, I’d tell you. That’s part of it.”

RELATED: Denny Hamlin blocks Alex Bowman’s initial burnout attempt

Bowman’s eligibility for the Cup Series title had expired three weeks ago with his No. 48 Chevrolet team’s elimination in the Round of 12 finale. He insisted his contact wasn’t intentional and said that he had been on the receiving end of run-ins with Hamlin in the past. He also said he planned to reach out to Hamlin later this week in an effort to smooth out their differences.

Hamlin’s day had been an adventure before the final 10 laps ever arrived. He was forced to drop to the rear of the field for the start after his No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota failed pre-race inspection twice. A pit-road speeding penalty during the team’s first pit stop erased a chunk of Hamlin’s progress in moving forward.

Each time, Hamlin drove back — enough so that he finished in the money for points at the end of Stage 2. The resilience was one thing, but the outcome still left a bitter pill.

“Racing with integrity in this sport is all but dead,” Gabehart told NASCAR.com. “So what they’re going to do when they don’t pass you is they’re just going to keep driving harder and harder and harder until they’re in absolutely over their head, which is then going to wreck you. Then there’s going to be no penalties, no discipline for it, it’s going to be cheered.”

Indeed, a commotion went up from the grandstands when Hamlin’s No. 11 went akilter in the final laps. And Hamlin’s post-race comments on the Martinsville public-address system were shouted down by the boisterous crowd — boos on Halloween, no less.

“It’s just Chase Elliott fans, man. They don’t think straight,” Hamlin said, with a nod to the reaction he received from spinning out NASCAR’s reigning most popular driver at the same spot on the Martinsville oval in 2017. “… They’re going to boo the (expletive) out of me next week, I can tell you that.”

Regardless of how his race was received, Hamlin has another shot at his first Cup Series championship in next Sunday’s season finale (3 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN, SiriusXM). He’ll compete with JGR teammate Martin Truex Jr. plus Hendrick Motorsports stablemates Elliott and Kyle Larson in the year-ending event at Phoenix Raceway.

Gabehart half-chuckled when asked when the No. 11 team might turn the page on this Sunday’s drama and put Phoenix in full focus.

“Listen, we drove from 38th to the front, 38th to the front again, led the entire last stage,” Gabehart said. “Our 750 (horsepower) program is stout, so we’re ready. This is nothing but motivation for next week.”