Analysis: How Kyle Larson caught up to Denny Hamlin in regular-season title battle

Posted on July 22, 2021 by Terrin Waack

When it comes to overall points, the entire NASCAR Cup Series garage has been chasing Denny Hamlin since Week 2 of the 2021 season.

The pilot of the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota took over the top standings spot after the second race, becoming the first driver to crack 100 points. Hamlin had 104 points – 12 more than anyone else.

After the 13th race, Hamlin boasted a 100-point lead over his competition. He was easily the first to break 500 points – sitting at 574, which was 101 more than the runner-up.

Though he has not won, Hamlin has remained untouched thanks to his series-high 11 top-five and 15 top-10 finishes. He’s currently at 874 points, above his nearest competitor by 13.

Kyle Larson is the only wheelman to achieve single-digit reaching distance of Hamlin – down by just two points in Week 19 – and it just so happens the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsport Chevrolet’s stat line matches Hamlin’s exactly. Four of Larson’s top fives and 10s, though, double as wins.

Larson, who is currently ranked second with 861 points, began catching up to Hamlin at the same time he started knocking out the wins. Larson most recently slid into second Week 15 after the first of three victories in a row. He had a 76-point deficit after the first, 47 after the second and 10 after the third. He continued to chip away at that total in the next two races, getting closest with the two-point difference.

But then Hamlin began to separate himself again, slowly but surely. He led by three points, 10 points and now the 13 points.

The points leader obviously doesn’t win the overall championship. But the points leader at the end of the regular season does win a mini title. The regular-season champion earns a playoff berth and 15 playoff points, which can help a playoff contender survive round-by-round elimination. The latter incentive is why someone already qualified for the postseason should want to fight for the honor.

Larson is one of the 13 drivers locked into the playoffs by virtue of a win. That leaves three spots up for grabs with four races left until the 16-driver field is set.

Hamlin has a 283-point buffer on the cutline. If he wins, he’s in. If he wins the regular-season title, he’s in. If neither happens, he’s in danger if first-time winners accumulate at Watkins Glen International (Aug. 8), Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course (Aug. 15), Michigan International Speedway (Aug. 22) and Daytona International Speedway (Aug. 28).

Hamlin’s opportunities to win and score points are running out, and Larson is looming.

Posted on July 22, 2021 by Marcus DiNitto

Hendrick Motorsports, led by Kyle Larson, seemed to have put some distance between itself and the rest of the Cup Series field with a stretch of six straight wins and seven in eight races from mid-May through early July. The betting market followed the Hendrick trend, as Larson rose to the top of championship oddsboards while tallying three straight victories.

But while Larson and teammate Chase Elliott own the two shortest prices to win the 2021 Cup title at a variety of sportsbooks, including NASCAR partners Barstool Sportsbook and WynnBET, the NASCAR Playoffs set up more favorably for Joe Gibbs Racing, thus presenting futures value on drivers from that garage.

On the seven playoff tracks that have already hosted a Cup Series race this season, Denny Hamlin’s 6.3 average running position leads the series, followed closely by Martin Truex Jr.’s 6.7, per data compiled by Jim Sannes, a DFS and betting analyst with numberFire. Elliott and Larson trail significantly in this stat, at 11.4 and 13.3, respectively.

Backing out Talladega, where running position isn’t as highly valued by quantitative analysts, Hamlin (4.0) and Truex (5.2) are still first and second in average running position, respectively, while Larson (8.8) and Elliott (10.3) well behind the Gibbs teammates.

“It’s clear JGR is putting a heavy emphasis on playoff-specific tracks,” Sannes said in a direct message with NASCAR.com.

Shopping around the betting marketplace, one can find Hamlin offered at enticing 9/1 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook’s futures board, and Truex available at a fat 10/1.

Sannes likes Truex at that price. “I’m pretty into that, given how well he has run at short, flat tracks with playoff representation,” Sannes said.

All three of Truex’s wins this season, in fact, have come on playoff tracks: Darlington, Martinsville and Phoenix, where the NASCAR Cup Series Championship will be held. He’s also got a fifth-place finish at Richmond and a pair of sixths at Las Vegas and Kansas, in addition to an outlying 31st at Talladega.

While Sannes’ projection of a 6.6% chance for Truex to win the championship race at Phoenix does not suggest value at 10/1 odds, the fact that a driver does not necessarily need to win that race to claim the title muddies the analysis.

Sannes added, “The data is underselling him …. and getting additional races at Richmond and Martinsville before then will likely make the sims view him much more favorably (at Phoenix).”

Considering Hamlin’s aforementioned running position stats and his lead in the standings, why lean toward the No. 19 over the No. 11?

‘The reason I’d bet Truex instead of going Hamlin is playoff points,” Sannes said. ‘He’s got 19 thus far (Hamlin has 5 in the bank off of stage wins), and there are still two road courses left in the regular season for him to potentially beef that up. It’s just hard to deny his combo of performance on playoff tracks and playoff points already in the bank.”

Marcus DiNitto is a writer and editor living in Charlotte, North Carolina. He has been covering sports for nearly two-and-a-half decades and sports betting for more than 10 years. His first NASCAR betting experience was in 1995 at North Wilkesboro Speedway, where he went 0-for-3 on his matchup picks. Read his articles and follow him on Twitter; do not bet his picks.

Posted on July 21, 2021 by Zach Sturniolo

LOUDON, N.H. — Patrick Emerling usually finds himself behind the wheel of his No. 07 car in the NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour on race day and calls it a day.

That wasn’t the case at New Hampshire Motor Speedway last Saturday.

Emerling got to enjoy the thrill of running both his modified as well as the No. 23 Chevrolet for Our Motorsports in the NASCAR Xfinity Series.

The day was “an incredible opportunity” for the New York native who entered the day as the points leader in the modified tour.

Results, though, didn’t come quite the way Emerling hoped.

In his No. 07 car, the team could never get a handle on the car and even fell a lap down mid-race en route to a disappointing 13th-place finish. A few hours later, making his second career start in the Xfinity Series for Our Motorsports, a right-front tire failure relegated Emerling to 31st place, four laps down.

“I was really confident going into today,” Emerling said. “Sometimes, one thing goes wrong and you can recover. But we had three or four things go wrong all at once and we just couldn’t catch any breaks.”

The modified race went wrong in quite a few ways. While battling a tight race car was difficult enough, Emerling lost the draft by taking too long to refuel. That sequence of events set him behind early in the contest, especially after a poor qualifying run started Emerling from the 17th position. Entering the day at the top of the leaderboard, he now trails Justin Bonsignore by 10 points in the championship standings.

For all the ways his modified race went wrong, Emerling’s Xfinity race was going comparatively well, considering he is “lacking a lot of experience in the car,” until contact with the Turn 4 wall derailed what could have been a more productive day.

“I thought it went well,” Emerling said. “The start of the race was really comfortable. We had a good short-run speed, we were just getting too tight, chattering the right front on long runs. I think we were hanging in the top 20 and I wanted to finish every lap. I was playing it conservative and taking it fairly easy. I just wanted to finish the race.

“Then we blew that right front and that was a heartbreaker. And then we ground down our sway bar, bent the sway bar or broke the sway bar when that happened, and then the rest we just were riding around wheel-hopping every time I touched the gas. Just a tough day.”

The “Magic Mile” had no magic left for Emerling, but still, he kept his head high knowing there’s still a championship to chase in the NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour.

“We’ll get the morale back up and we’ll get to it on the next one,” Emerling said.

Posted on July 21, 2021July 21, 2021 by Staff Report

The Kyle Petty Charity Ride, twice postponed because of COVID-19 concerns, is back on for a September reboot — only in miniature form.

Petty’s philanthropic organization announced this week that it will hold a Charity Ride Revival, a one-off event Sept. 21-23 that explores points of interest in Virginia and West Virginia. The three-day event, open to the community of previous Charity Ride participants, will raise funds and awareness for the Victory Junction camp for children affected by chronic and serious medical issues.

“With the COVID-19 vaccine rollout and restrictions being lifted, we wanted to do something to get our riders back together again in a safe way; thus, the Charity Ride Revival was created as a way to do just that,” said Ride founder Kyle Petty, who now works as a NASCAR analyst for NBC Sports. “The word ‘revival’ means to bring something back to life, and in our case, it means to reactivate after being dormant for more than two years. And I, for one, am more than ready to get back out there, riding motorcycles with friends in a beautiful setting all for a great cause!”

Each day’s will begin in a central location — the Omni Homestead Resort in Hot Springs, Virginia. Day 1 will take in the National D-Day Memorial in Bedford, Va., Day 2’s trip will explore Seneca Rocks, W.Va., and the final day will visit the New River Gorge National Park and Preserve in West Virginia.

The full, weeklong Kyle Petty Charity Ride Across America is scheduled to resume April 30-May 6, 2020. The coronavirus outbreak postponed the event from May dates in 2020 and again in 2021.

Posted on July 21, 2021July 21, 2021 by Official NASCAR Release

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. — NASCAR^® and Penn Interactive, a subsidiary of Penn National Gaming, Inc. (PENN: NASDAQ) (“Penn National” or the “Company”), announced today a new multiyear market access partnership in the state of Arizona. As part of the agreement, Penn National’s Barstool Sportsbook will become the exclusive Sportsbook of Phoenix Raceway and is expected to gain access to the Arizona sports betting market.

“Phoenix Raceway is a state-of-the-art entertainment destination that prides itself on delivering a best-in-class fan experience,” said Phoenix Raceway President Julie Giese. “Our partnership with Penn National Gaming and Barstool Sportsbook takes this to another level. It will help us continue our mission of redefining the way we engage fans and connect with new audiences.”

Penn National is the nation’s largest regional gaming operator, with 42 properties in 20 states. Penn Interactive operates retail and online sports wagering and iCasino for the Company, including the online Barstool Sportsbook, which is currently live in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The partnership with Phoenix Raceway reflects Penn National’s strategy to continue evolving into the leading omni-channel gaming provider as the only operator with a fully integrated sports media and entertainment partner.

“Barstool Sportsbook has proven itself to be a market leader in the jurisdictions where it has launched due to a combination of unique offers and a leading mobile experience,” said Jon Kaplowitz, Senior Vice President of Penn Interactive. “This new partnership will allow us to engage a passionate sports fan base in Arizona while having access to a best-in-class sports entertainment facility in Phoenix Raceway.”

As the exclusive sportsbook of Phoenix Raceway, Barstool Sportsbook is expected to take an active role in promoting NASCAR odds across its properties and sports betting app. Barstool Sportsbook will feature unique promotions and odds boosts for fans betting in Arizona and will be prominently featured with at-track signage and via NASCAR’s social and digital channels.

“As our first authorized gaming operator, Penn National has been invested in engaging NASCAR fans since we began building our position in the sports betting space,” said Tim Clark, Chief Digital Officer, NASCAR. “We couldn’t be more excited to provide our partners with access to our passionate fan base in the greater Phoenix market.”

In 2020, Penn National became NASCAR’s first authorized gaming operator, marking its first partnership with a professional sports league. Additionally, the Company extended its race title sponsorship with Kansas Speedway, where it operates Hollywood Casino on Turn 2 of the race track, through 2026.

Posted on July 21, 2021 by Zack Albert

The first phase of Roush Fenway Racing’s transition to a new ownership dynamic with Brad Keselowski begins next season. The next phase, which would entail a Keselowski shift from driving to a greater leadership role with the organization, still lacks a fine point on it.

Team owner Jack Roush and Keselowski detailed the framework of their new partnership Tuesday at the NASCAR Hall of Fame, with Keselowski becoming a minority owner and driver of the team’s No. 6 Ford. Those roles begin after the 2021 campaign, when Keselowski’s long-running duties with Team Penske end. As for when an ownership torch-handing between the two Michigan natives might occur, neither is ready for their current roles to end any time soon.

“I’ve been asked to say that I’m passing my baton to him, which I am,” Roush said, “but I still have one hand on the thing, so I’m not gonna give up completely for a while.”

In the short term, Roush Fenway is getting a proven winner at the Cup Series level, one who has been reliably counted on for multiple victories each year. Keselowski has been in the Championship 4 field in two of the last four seasons and at age 37, he stands to have several productive years left in his driving career.

Just how many driving years isn’t a finite amount just yet. When Roush spoke in terms of just how long, he invoked the name of fellow Hall of Famer Mark Martin, a bell-cow driver for Roush Racing’s early years who competed in his final Cup Series race at age 54. Following that model would make the ownership transition less of a five-year plan and more like 10 or 15.

“The good Lord willing, right?” said Keselowski, who stood by a Roush No. 6 Ford driven by Martin in 1998 during his Tuesday media session. “There’s some things I control, some things I don’t control with respect to that. If my mind and body are sound to do it, we’re able to make the right moves with the team on and off the track to be competitive, then I’ll go as long I can.”

The future is certain. The exact timing of it, less so. And that’s all OK by Roush Fenway president Steve Newmark.

“It really is fluid, and it makes it easier because he’s an owner from Day 1, right?” Newmark said. “So he’s buying in Day 1 and he drives for us until he retires. As you guys can appreciate, it’s hard to pick, say, for any athlete, ‘you’re going to retire this date’ because you have no idea what’s going to happen the intervening years. As long as he’s still running competitively, competing for wins and championships, he’ll stay in that seat. And it’ll be a collaborative discussion if it looks like he’s ready to transition — for family reasons or otherwise — and when he does that, it’s all set up for him to take a greater and more daily role on the leadership side of the competition group.”

Roush isn’t ready for the full transition to kick in just yet, either. At 79, the venerable team owner remains a popular fixture on pit road and in the garage, with direct oversight of his two-car operation.

Roush has been at it on the NASCAR side of things since forming his Cup Series team in 1988, and his involvement in drag racing and sports-car series predates that. As he expressed interest in the sport’s influx of new owners and the advent of the Next Gen stock car for 2022, Roush said he intends to be ever-present amid the changing landscape.

“There are no retirement plans for me in my immediate future,” Roush said. “I intend to keep going to the race tracks the way I have and to be as much of a nuisance and distraction as I have been to my drivers and crew chiefs in the past. Over a period of time, Brad will earn his independence and he will gain a significant position of ownership in the team.

“One of the things that’s been a challenge for me is to answer the questions I’ve gotten over a period of time — ‘When are you going to retire? What is your succession plan?’ Well, Brad Keselowski and the Next Gen car and the things that we can do together in the near term and the future that we see long-term is my retirement plan, and I just hope I can take lots of green flags and lots of checkered flags before we get there.”

Posted on July 20, 2021July 20, 2021 by Staff Report

NASCAR officials opted against penalizing Kyle Busch for bumping the pace car during Sunday’s Cup Series race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Busch did not appear on Tuesday’s penalty report. Competition officials had said that Busch’s actions would be addressed in the department’s weekly briefing, but no action was taken.

Busch started his Joe Gibbs Racing No. 18 Toyota from the pole position in Sunday’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 and led the first six laps before a rain shower dampened the track, prompting the day’s first caution period. Busch’s car skidded into the outside retaining wall and sustained significant damage, relegating him to a last-place finish in the 37-car field. Teammates Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. also lost control in the melee.

Before his day ended, Busch circled the track under the yellow flag and made contact with the pace car before parking on pit road. He did not return to the race and was critical of NASCAR’s decision to start the event. “We started the race under a mist,” he said. “It never should have gone green to begin with, but then it kept getting worse and worse lap over lap.”

Steve O’Donnell, NASCAR executive vice president and chief racing development officer, later joined NBC Sports’ broadcast team to explain the sanctioning body’s process for starting the race with inclement weather looming in the vicinity of the 1.058-mile track.

Posted on July 20, 2021July 20, 2021 by Staff Report

NASCAR officials issued a pair of $10,000 fines to two Cup Series teams for lug-nut infractions after Sunday’s race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

The violations of Section 10.9.10.4 (tires and wheels) in the NASCAR Rule Book for a single unsecured lug nut on each car were found after Sunday’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 at the 1.058-mile track. That meant a fine for each team’s crew chief.

The two teams found with lug-nut violations (and their respective crew chiefs/drivers):

• No. 12 Team Penske Ford (crew chief Todd Gordon; driver Ryan Blaney)
• No. 99 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet (crew chief Travis Mack; driver Daniel Suarez)

No penalties were issued for Cup Series driver Kyle Busch, who bumped the pace car during the race’s first caution period with his damaged No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota.

No post-race penalties stemmed from Saturday’s Ambetter Get Vaccinated 200 for the NASCAR Xfinity Series.

Posted on July 20, 2021July 20, 2021 by Zack Albert

Tuesday’s news that Brad Keselowski would enter a partnership with Roush Fenway Racing next season clicked some puzzle pieces into place for 2022. Other pieces in the ever-changing tumult of the NASCAR Cup Series’ team-and-driver alignments remain unsolved, including one of the prime names involved — Ryan Newman.

The Roush Fenway organization will have a new driver of its flagship No. 6 Ford next year in Keselowski, who will leave Team Penske at season’s end to take the split role of driver, minority owner and head of the team’s competition committee. The team’s full driver lineup is still to come (Chris Buescher currently drives Roush’s second car, the No. 17), but that leaves Newman looking for a new role for next season, though the door remains open that the 43-year-old driver may remain with the team in a part-time capacity.

RFR president Steve Newmark indicated that its deal with Keselowski was reached in March and that talks of expanding to a three-car Cup Series operation soon followed. Ultimately, Newmark said, the organization opted to continue as a two-car effort but with the possibility of keeping Newman with a partial schedule.

“So I’ve talked to Ryan regularly, as recently as yesterday, and we’ve talked to him about whether he’d be interested in a part-time role with us, what he wants to do next year,” Newmark said, “and I think it’s fair to say that he’s still trying to make that decision on what’s his best path and what his best direction is. I don’t think he has a timeline on when he’s going to kind of solidify his plans for 2022.”

Keselowski indicated he had been involved in those talks with Newman, saying he was bullish on keeping the veteran driver in the fold if sponsorship and support allowed.

“I did have a discussion with him to share that interest, and too early to tell what that’ll be,” Keselowski said. “And of course, depending on the proper partnership to fund it, but if there’s a partner out there to fund it, I think it’s a no-brainer for us to try to do.”

Newman joined Roush Fenway in 2019, leading the No. 6 team to a playoff appearance in a consistent first year together. He missed three races last season after a severe crash in the final lap of the Daytona 500, but recovered from injuries to finish out the year once the racing calendar resumed in May after the COVID-19 outbreak.

This season, Newman sits 27th in the Cup Series standings with just one top-five result and three top-10 finishes. But Newmark was quick to credit Newman’s role in elevating the team’s competition meetings and providing a steady presence as a 20-year veteran and an 18-time winner at the sport’s top level.

“I will say unequivocally that I have a ton of respect for Ryan and his professionalism and what he’s brought to our team,” Newmark said. “We didn’t achieve our collective goals and there were a lot of factors that kind of intervened in that, but it’s just fair to say that we really respect Ryan and appreciate the relationship with him and want to help him do whatever he wants to do next. He deserves that.”

Posted on July 20, 2021July 21, 2021 by Staff Report

Roush Fenway Racing Team President Steve Newmark announced Tuesday at the NASCAR Hall of Fame that Brad Keselowski will come on board as a driver with a minority ownership stake in the organization, starting in 2022. Keselowski is leaving Team Penske, where he has driven full-time in the NASCAR Cup Series since 2010 and has amassed 34 of his 35 Cup wins and a series championship (2012).

The Rochester Hills, Michigan, native will stay in the Ford camp. The news comes after a July 15 announcement from Team Penske that moves Austin Cindric into the No. 2 Ford for the 2022 campaign and also confirmed Keselowski’s departure from the team at the conclusion of this season.

Roush Fenway Racing currently fields the No. 6 Ford for Ryan Newman and the No. 17 Ford for Chris Buescher. Keselowski will take over the No. 6 ride in 2022. Keselowski will also assume a leadership role within the organization on the competition committee. The team will provide additional details on driver lineup, partners and other team assets at a later date.

“I am thrilled to be able to share the news about this next venture with my fans, peers, and the industry,” Keselowski said in a team release. “This presents an opportunity to continue my on-track success with a strong team and a long-term commitment, but also dive into my passion of team ownership where I know I can be an asset to the future of the team. I am optimistic about what Jack (Roush), John (Henry) and I can accomplish together, especially with a new era for our sport on the horizon (with the Next Gen car). Our goal is to win races and compete for championships at NASCAR’s top level, and we plan to do just that.”

Jack Roush was inducted into the NASCAR Hall of Fame in the Class of 2019. The 79-year-old team owner has fielded entries in the Cup Series since 1988 and has compiled 137 victories at that level, including series championships with Matt Kenseth (2003) and Kurt Busch (2004). He has also guided drivers to five Xfinity Series titles and one championship in the Camping World Truck Series. The organization was first known as Roush Racing. Red Sox majority owner John Henry became an investor in the team in 2007, and the name was changed to Roush Fenway Racing.

“I’m truly excited about this partnership with Brad,” Roush said. “I think it will bring a lot to the organization, from not only Brad’s ability behind the wheel, but a rejuvenation and fresh perspective across our teams. I’ve had the opportunity to watch Brad for a number of years, as he has fought and clawed his way up the ladder, molding himself into a champion and one of the top drivers in our sport. I’ve always admired his resolve and determination. I’m very pleased that he has chosen to be a part of our organization and I’m proud to partner with him moving into the future.”

Since 2011, Keselowski has qualified for the NASCAR Playoffs in 10 of 11 seasons. His streak of 11 consecutive seasons with a victory is tied with Kevin Harvick for the second-longest among active drivers. Entering the Olympic break, the 37-year-old sits ninth in the Cup Series points standings with a victory at Talladega — his sixth of his career there — seven top fives and nine top 10s.

In a statement released on July 15 on Twitter, Keselowski said that “getting to drive for Mr. Roger Penske in the No. 2 has been a tremendous opportunity, and I am proud of the success we’ve had together. His guidance has helped me both be a better competitor, but even more so, a better man. …

“Making the decision to part ways with Team Penske to embrace a new opportunity and challenge was a difficult one, and one I did not take lightly.”

This will be Keselowski’s second turn at an ownership role with a team on the NASCAR national series level. From 2008-15, he headed up Brad Keselowski Racing in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series. Cindric, Tyler Reddick, Chase Briscoe and Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney were among the drivers who piloted trucks for Keselowski during those years. His team compiled 11 race wins, including one for Keselowski as an owner-driver in 2014 at Bristol Motor Speedway.

During his availability to discuss elevating Cindric into the No. 2 Ford, Penske revealed that Keselowski had shown an interest in an ownership stake during talks. “He wanted to have ownership and the way we’re structured, that wasn’t available,” Penske said.

Denny Hamlin, who drives for Joe Gibbs Racing and is a co-owner of 23XI Racing with Michael Jordan, is another Cup Series veteran who is doing the dual role of driver and owner at NASCAR’s highest level. Other drivers who are either currently holding both roles or have done so in the past across NASCAR’s national series include Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Tony Stewart.

Keselowski got his start in the Cup Series with Rick Hendrick driving two races toward the end of 2008 season. Keselowski then drove part of the 2009 season for Hendrick, James Finch and ultimately Roger Penske. Keselowski got his first Cup win that year for James Finch in April at Talladega Superspeedway.