Statistically, 2026 has been a dominant season for Toyota in the NASCAR Cup Series. Three of the manufacturer’s drivers sit in the top four in the points standings, Denny Hamlin (699), Christopher Bell (369) and Tyler Reddick (320) sit among the top four in laps led this year, and Toyota won seven of the first nine races to start 2026.
While Toyota is still bringing the fastest cars to the track on a weekly basis, it hasn’t equated to a Victory Lane trip in over a month.
Yes, Reddick, a five-time winner this year, was the last to win for Toyota back at Kansas Speedway in April. Chevrolet has taken the checkered flag in the last four races and pulled off a big upset over the Joe Gibbs Racing camp as Daniel Suárez fended off Bell, Denny Hamlin and Ty Gibbs to win a rain-shortened Coca-Cola 600.
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On Sunday, the Cup Series hits the largest concrete track on the circuit at Nashville Superspeedway (7 p.m. ET, Prime Video, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Not only is Toyota looking to get back to Victory Lane this year, but it is also seeking its first triumph just outside Music City. Can Toyota do it, or will they continue this minor slump as summer rapidly approaches? Here’s how Racing Insights sees the Cracker Barrel 400 playing out.
DRIVERS TO WATCH
JOEY LOGANO: A win at Nashville after a record five overtimes in 2024 set up the No. 22 Team Penske driver to win his third Cup Series championship. After 13 races, Logano shockingly sits outside the top 16 in points, 29 markers behind Ryan Preece for the final spot in the Chase. Including the victory two years ago, Logano also picked up a top five at Nashville last year as teammate Ryan Blaney stormed to victory. As the second half of the 2026 regular season begins, Logano needs a third consecutive great run at the concrete oval on Sunday to begin his push.
RYAN PREECE: On the surface, the numbers don’t look all that pretty for Preece, with just one Nashville top five at the Cup level. However, Preece does have a pair of guitars after consecutive NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series wins in Tennessee in 2021 and 2022. The Connecticut wheelman is also pretty good on tracks with concrete characteristics, with a 12th-place run at Martinsville Speedway and a top 10 at Bristol Motor Speedway earlier this season.
ZANE SMITH: Coming off a 10th-place result in last weekend’s Coke 600, the No. 38 Front Row Motorsports team is starting to gain back its momentum after the speed they showed to kick off 2026. Leading 31 laps in the crown-jewel event, the ultimate result still doesn’t really show how competitive Smith was in the race. With a runner-up result in 2024 and a top-15 run at Nashville last year, the Southern California native will be in play for another big weekend in the Volunteer State.
MORE: At-track photos
FULL PROJECTED RESULTS FOR CRACKER BARREL 400 (7 p.m. ET, Prime Video)
| FINISH | CAR NUMBER | DRIVER |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2 | 5 | Kyle Larson |
| 3 | 20 | Christopher Bell |
| 4 | 45 | Tyler Reddick |
| 5 | 12 | Ryan Blaney |
| 6 | 24 | William Byron |
| 7 | 9 | Chase Elliott |
| 8 | 77 | Carson Hocevar |
| 9 | 54 | Ty Gibbs |
| 10 | 1 | Ross Chastain |
| 11 | 22 | Joey Logano |
| 12 | 7 | Daniel Suárez |
| 13 | 23 | Bubba Wallace |
| 14 | 38 | Zane Smith |
| 15 | 17 | Chris Buescher |
| 16 | 43 | Erik Jones |
| 17 | 16 | AJ Allmendinger |
| 18 | 6 | Brad Keselowski |
| 19 | 2 | Austin Cindric |
| 20 | 60 | Ryan Preece |
| 21 | 71 | Michael McDowell |
| 22 | 97 | Shane van Gisbergen |
| 23 | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 24 | 19 | Chase Briscoe |
| 25 | 3 | Austin Dillon |
| 26 | 48 | Alex Bowman |
| 27 | 34 | Todd Gilliland |
| 28 | 4 | Noah Gragson |
| 29 | 41 | Cole Custer |
| 30 | 21 | Josh Berry |
| 31 | 35 | Riley Herbst |
| 32 | 67 | Corey Heim |
| 33 | 88 | Connor Zilisch |
| 34 | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 35 | 10 | Ty Dillon |
| 36 | 51 | Cody Ware |
| 37 | 33 | Austin Hill |
| 38 | 66 | Chad Finchum |



