It’s hard to believe, but we’re somehow already a week into February and have a preseason race under our belt — just blink and before you know it, haulers will be headed to Daytona International Speedway.
Kyle Larson’s Phoenix Raceway triumph for his first NASCAR Cup Series championship is still fresh in our minds, yet it’s time to turn the page and talk 2022.
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So, here’s the big question now that we’ve seen a glimmer of what the Next Gen has to offer in its maiden voyage: Will the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet driver claim a second straight title or will another take his crown?
NASCAR.com’s Pat DeCola and Terrin Waack weigh in.
DECOLA: It’s tempting to ride the hot hand and stick with Kyle Larson again. After all, the 2021 championship was his to lose from the springtime-on, and nobody out there would argue he wasn’t the most deserving champion of 2021.
But he won’t be in 2022.
If this were a typical season where the car specifics were largely carried over from year to year, the 10-time ’21 winner would be the obvious pick to become the sport’s first repeat champion since a certain seven-time champ picked up five of those in a row.
It’s not, though, so he isn’t. The overhaul that the sport has undergone in the three months since the Californian hoisted his first Bill France Cup are the most drastic since the days of, well, Bill France. It’s still way too early to tell how things will all shake out over the coming 36-race campaign, but it feels safe to assume that we assuredly won’t see a carbon copy of ’21.
Larson will likely still get a handful of — but definitely not 10 — wins and it’s hard to see him falling out of championship contention given his overall talent level but there are too many unknowns in the Next Gen era’s infancy to deem him an outright favorite to repeat.
Therefore, I’ll shake it up and say right now that I’m looking at Ryan Blaney as this year’s champion.
Still just 28 years old, Blaney clearly has plenty of room to go before he hits his ceiling yet has rounded into a polished driver capable of battling NASCAR’s elite for race wins. This is the year he joins them in the hunt for a championship.
Not only has his average finish been bettered essentially year over year since breaking in his fire suit with a half slate in 2015, last season’s career-best 11.9 mark was fifth-best in the series behind only Denny Hamlin, Larson, Kevin Harvick and Chase Elliott, respectively. Those are unquestionably championship-caliber names, and the next four drivers behind him on the list are all former title-winners, themselves.
Let’s not forget, too, that team owner Roger Penske allowed his flagship, champion driver Brad Keselowski — who’d been in the Cup Series full-time with the team since 2010 — to leave and partner with another longtime Ford organization in the revamped Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing.
There were lots of factors at play there, but something tells me there’s a reason The Captain was OK with the departure of his longest tenured driver.
He knows he has another champion in waiting.
RELATED: All-time Cup champions
WAACK: For the first time since Jimmie Johnson accomplished the feat five years in a row, the NASCAR Cup Series is going to see a back-to-back champion.
That’s right, I’m picking Kyle Larson to win it all this season — again. The pilot of the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet is going to pick up right where he left off. He kind of already has, actually.
Last month, NASCAR hosted its final Next Gen organization test at Phoenix Raceway, the site of the 2021-22 championships. Larson, who won his 2021 title back in November, topped the Day 1 leaderboard with the fastest unofficial speed. He was eighth on Day 2 but split driving responsibilities with teammate William Byron. Safe to say, Larson is still fast.
Speaking of the Next Gen car, Larson is one of the most versatile drivers in the NASCAR garage. Because of his dirt background, he may be able to adapt to the Next Gen car quicker than his competitors. He’s already used to regularly hopping in different race cars and getting the most out of them.
Larson also proved he doesn’t favor one type of NASCAR track last year, too. Across his series-best 10 wins, each at a different venue, he won at short tracks (Bristol Motor Speedway, as an example), intermediate ovals (let’s say Charlotte Motor Speedway) and road courses (why not Sonoma Raceway). The other options were dirt and superspeedway — only one dirt race, four superspeedway events, of 36 overall.
It’d be surprising if Larson’s 2021 success didn’t carry over into 2022. But then again, Kevin Harvick won nine races in 2020 and none in 2021.
